Rankings/San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA

San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 41740Compare

Risk Rank: #71 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— -4

57score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

San Diego experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 3 months·Previously: Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

San Diego's housing market shows average risk, ranking 71st of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory is growing moderately (+14% YoY) with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by migration and affordability. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Migration

p90 (highest risk decile)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Affordability

p76 (elevated risk)

Mortgage payment / income

Permit Growth

p56 (moderate)

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +14% pace with homes taking +4% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

+14.2%p64

Days on Market YoY

+3.6%p55

Months in status3

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.5%p72

Months in status14

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum26

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth56

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita46

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability76

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment46

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration90

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+0.8%	p26
Permit Growth	+0.7%	p56
Permits/1K Pop	3.54	p46
Affordability	0.31	p76
Employment	+0.3%	p46
Net AGI Migration	-$178K	p90

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+0.7%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY+14.2%

Days on Market YoY+3.6%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 3 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	53	23	46	76	37	90
2025-09	Hyp	55	23	46	76	50	90
2025-07	Hyp	60	31	46	76	74	90
2025-04	Ress	54	15	46	77	55	90
2025-02	Ress	58	31	46	77	59	90
2025-01	Hyp	62	36	46	77	79	90
2024-11	Hyp	64	51	46	79	72	90
2024-08	Ress	65	53	46	76	81	90
2024-06	Ress	70	82	46	78	77	90
2024-03	Hyp	69	82	46	76	74	90
2024-02	Exp	68	82	46	76	71	90
2023-12	Exp	69	74	46	73	87	90
2023-09	Exp	64	56	46	72	79	90
2023-08	Rec	62	49	46	72	72	90
2023-06	Rec	60	30	46	73	76	90
2023-03	Hyp	56	15	46	70	68	90
2023-01	Hyp	56	26	46	70	57	90
2022-12	Ress	50	20	46	71	31	90
2022-10	Ress	52	32	46	71	27	90
2022-07	Ress	55	65	46	75	10	90
2022-06	Hyp	58	85	46	80	4	90
2022-05	Exp	58	83	46	80	3	90
2022-03	Exp	56	72	46	78	4	90
2021-12	Rec	55	68	46	76	2	94
2021-10	Rec	56	70	46	76	5	94
2021-08	Exp	55	66	46	74	5	94
2021-06	Exp	59	74	46	75	22	94
2021-04	Rec	61	68	46	75	40	94
2021-02	Rec	68	63	46	74	90	94
2020-12	Exp	66	50	46	75	88	96
2020-10	Exp	66	47	46	75	88	96
2020-08	Rec	66	44	46	76	93	96
2020-06	Rec	66	56	46	77	81	96
2020-05	Exp	66	54	46	77	83	96
2020-03	Exp	56	30	46	76	43	96
2020-02	Rec	53	26	46	76	31	96
2019-12	Rec	53	15	46	76	47	93
2019-09	Rec	51	8	46	77	41	93
2019-06	Rec	52	11	46	78	39	93
2019-04	Hyp	53	10	46	78	50	93
2019-02	Hyp	55	18	46	79	53	93
2019-01	Hyp	56	22	46	79	51	93

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022