Rankings/San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA

San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 41740Compare

Risk Rank: #111 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):↓ -6

52score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

San Diego's housing market shows average risk, ranking 111th of 273 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

San Diego experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is roughly flat (-5% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and affordability, while permit growth provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp88

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Affordabilityp75

Mortgage payment / income

Price Momentump49

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (-5% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

-4.9%p42

Days on Market YoY

+0.0%p45

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-0.3%p59

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumNeutral

+2.3%p49

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-14.8%p23

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaBelow Avg

3.20p38

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityElevated

0.33p75

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentBelow Avg

+0.7%p38

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk

-$67Kp88

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-14.8%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Builders are pulling back but demand remains healthy. A supply constraint could form — fewer new units entering a market that is still absorbing well.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Diversified

Largest SectorGovernment 16%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Rec	49	35	32	75	26	88
2025-12	Rec	57	31	55	76	47	88
2025-09	Hyp	55	23	46	76	50	90
2025-07	Hyp	60	31	46	76	74	90
2025-04	Ress	54	15	46	77	55	90
2025-02	Ress	58	31	46	77	59	90
2025-01	Hyp	62	36	46	77	79	90
2024-11	Hyp	64	51	46	79	72	90
2024-08	Ress	65	53	46	76	81	90
2024-06	Ress	70	82	46	78	77	90
2024-03	Hyp	69	82	46	76	74	90
2024-02	Exp	68	82	46	76	71	90
2023-12	Exp	69	74	46	73	87	90
2023-09	Exp	64	56	46	72	79	90
2023-08	Rec	62	49	46	72	72	90
2023-06	Rec	60	30	46	73	76	90
2023-03	Hyp	56	15	46	70	68	90
2023-01	Hyp	56	26	46	70	57	90
2022-12	Ress	50	20	46	71	31	90
2022-10	Ress	52	32	46	71	27	90
2022-07	Ress	55	65	46	75	10	90
2022-06	Hyp	58	85	46	80	4	90
2022-05	Exp	58	83	46	80	3	90
2022-03	Exp	56	72	46	78	4	90
2021-12	Rec	55	68	46	76	2	94
2021-10	Rec	56	70	46	76	5	94
2021-08	Exp	55	66	46	74	5	94
2021-06	Exp	59	74	46	75	22	94
2021-04	Rec	61	68	46	75	40	94
2021-02	Rec	68	63	46	74	90	94
2020-12	Exp	66	50	46	75	88	96
2020-10	Exp	66	47	46	75	88	96
2020-08	Rec	66	44	46	76	93	96
2020-06	Rec	66	56	46	77	81	96
2020-05	Exp	66	54	46	77	83	96
2020-03	Exp	56	30	46	76	43	96
2020-02	Rec	53	26	46	76	31	96
2019-12	Rec	53	15	46	76	47	93
2019-09	Rec	51	8	46	77	41	93
2019-06	Rec	52	11	46	78	39	93
2019-04	Hyp	53	10	46	78	50	93
2019-02	Hyp	55	18	46	79	53	93
2019-01	Hyp	56	22	46	79	51	93

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023