Rankings/San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX

San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 41700Compare

Risk Rank: #281 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -5

29score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

San Antonio experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 1 month·Previously: Hypersupply

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

San Antonio's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 281st of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory is growing moderately (+14% YoY) with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Below Average, driven primarily by affordability and permits per capita. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Affordability

p63 (moderate)

Mortgage payment / income

Permits per Capita

p50 (moderate)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Price Momentum

p34 (below average risk)

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +14% pace with homes taking +4% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+13.9%p63

Days on Market YoY

+4.0%p56

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-2.3%p30

Months in status4

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum34

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth7

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita50

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability63

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment18

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration4

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+1.4%	p34
Permit Growth	-30.8%	p7
Permits/1K Pop	3.79	p50
Affordability	0.29	p63
Employment	+1.1%	p18
Net AGI Migration	+$1M	p4

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-30.8%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY+13.9%

Days on Market YoY+4.0%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 1 monthData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

San Antonio's counties diverge significantly — Medina County (High Risk) contrasts sharply with Wilson County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High21.0

8 of 8 counties scored

San Antonio, TX shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Medina County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by price momentum), while Wilson County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Medina CountyRisk Driver	76	High Risk	12.5%	100	100	29
Kendall County	76	High Risk	12.5%	71	86	71
Comal County	62	Elevated	12.5%	29	57	100
Atascosa County	52	Average	12.5%	86	71	0
Guadalupe County	48	Average	12.5%	43	43	57
Bexar County	43	Below Average	12.5%	14	29	86
Bandera County	33	Below Average	12.5%	57	0	43
Wilson CountyStabilizer	9	Low Risk	12.5%	0	14	14

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	34	24	29	63	22	4
2025-09	Hyp	32	24	29	63	9	4
2025-07	Rec	37	51	29	63	12	4
2025-06	Ress	36	41	29	64	16	4
2025-04	Hyp	31	10	29	64	12	4
2025-02	Hyp	32	6	29	61	24	4
2024-11	Hyp	34	13	29	66	24	4
2024-08	Hyp	30	1	29	62	18	4
2024-06	Ress	36	19	29	71	27	4
2024-04	Ress	37	19	29	71	32	4
2024-02	Hyp	34	3	29	68	32	4
2023-12	Hyp	34	9	29	72	26	4
2023-11	Rec	33	8	29	72	21	4
2023-10	Hyp	33	8	29	72	19	4
2023-09	Rec	34	10	29	74	23	4
2023-08	Hyp	35	17	29	74	23	4
2023-06	Hyp	36	23	29	76	17	4
2023-03	Ress	38	41	29	78	13	4
2023-01	Ress	40	47	29	78	14	4
2022-10	Ress	43	71	29	79	10	4
2022-09	Hyp	43	72	29	78	9	4
2022-08	Ress	43	73	29	78	7	4
2022-06	Ress	45	79	29	79	14	4
2022-04	Exp	44	77	29	79	13	4
2022-02	Exp	43	72	29	79	9	4
2021-11	Exp	42	63	29	73	21	4
2021-08	Exp	42	51	29	71	29	4
2021-05	Rec	46	39	29	71	65	4
2021-03	Rec	43	38	29	70	50	4
2020-12	Rec	40	25	29	71	43	6
2020-09	Rec	43	31	29	71	57	6
2020-06	Rec	38	22	29	71	38	6
2020-03	Rec	45	66	29	74	32	6
2020-01	Exp	45	67	29	74	29	6
2019-11	Exp	43	51	29	73	33	6
2019-10	Rec	42	50	29	73	30	6
2019-08	Rec	48	80	29	73	38	6
2019-07	Exp	48	82	29	73	35	6
2019-05	Exp	48	77	29	72	38	6
2019-04	Hyp	48	75	29	72	41	6
2019-03	Exp	47	76	29	72	36	6
2019-01	Exp	48	78	29	72	36	6

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022