Rankings/San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX

San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 41700Compare

Risk Rank: #263 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— -3

31score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

San Antonio's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 263rd of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory is growing moderately (+14% YoY) with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers. Valuations are also showing some stretch.

San Antonio experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +14% pace with homes taking +4% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Home prices are outpacing rents (-3.5% rent-price ratio change), indicating some valuation compression.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase·from Hypersupply

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Valuation Lag — Liquidity is improving but rent-price ratios remain compressed.

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by affordability and permits per capita, while migration provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Affordabilityp62

Mortgage payment / income

Permits per Capitap49

Permits per 1,000 residents

Price Momentump45

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +14% pace with homes taking +4% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+13.9%p63

Days on Market YoY

+4.0%p56

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Compressed—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-3.5%p19

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumNeutral

+2.7%p45

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk

-30.8%p8

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaNeutral

3.79p49

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityElevated

0.29p62

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentLow Risk

+1.1%p18

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationLow Risk

+$561Kp5

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-30.8%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Concentrated

Largest SectorGovernment 25.5%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

San Antonio's 8 counties show similar risk profiles — the metro-level score is broadly representative.

Low8.0Limited data

8 of 8 counties scored

San Antonio, TX shows Low internal divergence — county-level differences are minor and the metro composite is broadly representative. Comal County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permits per capita), while Bexar County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Kendall County<5%	78	High Risk	1.8%	71	86	71
Comal CountyRisk Driver	72	Elevated	6.9%	29	57	100
Medina County<5%	61	Elevated	2.0%	100	100	29
Atascosa County<5%	54	Average	1.9%	86	71	0
Guadalupe County	54	Average	6.9%	43	43	57
Bexar CountyStabilizer	43	Below Average	77.6%	14	29	86
Bandera County<5%	25	Low Risk	0.8%	57	0	43
Wilson County<5%	14	Low Risk	2.0%	0	14	14

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	34	24	29	63	22	4
2025-09	Hyp	32	24	29	63	9	4
2025-07	Rec	37	51	29	63	12	4
2025-06	Ress	36	41	29	64	16	4
2025-04	Hyp	31	10	29	64	12	4
2025-02	Hyp	32	6	29	61	24	4
2024-11	Hyp	34	13	29	66	24	4
2024-08	Hyp	30	1	29	62	18	4
2024-06	Ress	36	19	29	71	27	4
2024-04	Ress	37	19	29	71	32	4
2024-02	Hyp	34	3	29	68	32	4
2023-12	Hyp	34	9	29	72	26	4
2023-11	Rec	33	8	29	72	21	4
2023-10	Hyp	33	8	29	72	19	4
2023-09	Rec	34	10	29	74	23	4
2023-08	Hyp	35	17	29	74	23	4
2023-06	Hyp	36	23	29	76	17	4
2023-03	Ress	38	41	29	78	13	4
2023-01	Ress	40	47	29	78	14	4
2022-10	Ress	43	71	29	79	10	4
2022-09	Hyp	43	72	29	78	9	4
2022-08	Ress	43	73	29	78	7	4
2022-06	Ress	45	79	29	79	14	4
2022-04	Exp	44	77	29	79	13	4
2022-02	Exp	43	72	29	79	9	4
2021-11	Exp	42	63	29	73	21	4
2021-08	Exp	42	51	29	71	29	4
2021-05	Rec	46	39	29	71	65	4
2021-03	Rec	43	38	29	70	50	4
2020-12	Rec	40	25	29	71	43	6
2020-09	Rec	43	31	29	71	57	6
2020-06	Rec	38	22	29	71	38	6
2020-03	Rec	45	66	29	74	32	6
2020-01	Exp	45	67	29	74	29	6
2019-11	Exp	43	51	29	73	33	6
2019-10	Rec	42	50	29	73	30	6
2019-08	Rec	48	80	29	73	38	6
2019-07	Exp	48	82	29	73	35	6
2019-05	Exp	48	77	29	72	38	6
2019-04	Hyp	48	75	29	72	41	6
2019-03	Exp	47	76	29	72	36	6
2019-01	Exp	48	78	29	72	36	6

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023