Rankings/Salt Lake City-Murray, UT

Salt Lake City-Murray, UT

NeutralTier 1CBSA 41620Compare

Risk Rank: #41 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +6

60score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Salt Lake City experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 3 months·Previously: Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Salt Lake City's housing market shows average risk, ranking 41st of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory is growing moderately (+13% YoY) with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by migration and permit growth. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Migration

p95 (highest risk decile)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Permit Growth

p83 (elevated risk)

YoY permit change

Permits per Capita

p69 (moderate)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +13% pace with homes taking +11% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+13.5%p63

Days on Market YoY

+10.8%p69

Months in status2

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-1.4%p42

Months in status11

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum46

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth83

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita69

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability62

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment6

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration95

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+2.2%	p46
Permit Growth	+22.6%	p83
Permits/1K Pop	5.77	p69
Affordability	0.29	p62
Employment	+1.8%	p6
Net AGI Migration	-$475K	p95

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+22.6%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY+13.5%

Days on Market YoY+10.8%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 2 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	44	44	4	61	11	95
2025-09	Hyp	45	37	4	61	19	95
2025-07	Hyp	44	40	4	61	11	95
2025-05	Ress	45	45	4	62	11	95
2025-03	Ress	46	43	4	60	21	95
2025-02	Hyp	46	42	4	60	26	95
2024-12	Rec	54	53	4	62	56	95
2024-10	Rec	52	58	4	62	40	95
2024-09	Hyp	52	52	4	63	47	95
2024-08	Rec	52	46	4	63	52	95
2024-07	Ress	52	43	4	63	58	95
2024-05	Ress	48	24	4	62	51	95
2024-04	Hyp	48	23	4	62	52	95
2024-03	Exp	46	19	4	62	41	95
2024-01	Exp	45	18	4	62	40	95
2023-10	Exp	46	10	4	62	53	95
2023-08	Rec	46	7	4	62	56	95
2023-06	Rec	44	8	4	64	40	95
2023-05	Hyp	43	6	4	64	37	95
2023-03	Hyp	46	7	4	67	48	95
2023-02	Ress	44	8	4	67	41	95
2022-12	Ress	44	13	4	65	34	95
2022-09	Hyp	49	47	4	71	26	95
2022-08	Ress	51	51	4	71	31	95
2022-06	Ress	58	81	4	76	41	95
2022-03	Exp	59	83	4	75	45	95
2022-02	Rec	62	88	4	75	57	95
2021-12	Rec	51	92	4	79	54	24
2021-11	Exp	49	92	4	79	41	24
2021-09	Exp	48	95	4	79	31	24
2021-06	Exp	48	95	4	78	32	24
2021-03	Exp	42	94	4	72	8	24
2021-02	Rec	42	94	4	72	6	24
2020-12	Rec	51	94	4	60	11	88
2020-09	Rec	51	93	4	58	14	88
2020-06	Rec	50	89	4	56	15	88
2020-05	Exp	49	88	4	56	7	88
2020-03	Exp	48	80	4	53	11	88
2020-02	Rec	48	82	4	53	11	88
2019-12	Rec	45	86	4	53	18	55
2019-09	Rec	44	86	4	52	14	55
2019-06	Hyp	44	93	4	52	9	55
2019-04	Hyp	44	92	4	53	6	55
2019-03	Ress	44	91	4	51	14	55
2019-01	Ress	46	92	4	51	19	55

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022