Rankings/Salinas, CA

Salinas, CA

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 41500Compare

Risk Rank: #240 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— +4

40score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Salinas experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 3 months·Previously: Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Salinas's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 240th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Below Average, driven primarily by permit growth and affordability. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Permit Growth

p94 (highest risk decile)

YoY permit change

Affordability

p59 (moderate)

Mortgage payment / income

Employment

p31 (below average risk)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +8% pace with homes taking -1% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+7.9%p57

Days on Market YoY

-1.3%p45

Months in status3

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+1.0%p79

Months in status22

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum25

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth94

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita17

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability59

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment31

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration15

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+0.8%	p25
Permit Growth	+51.1%	p94
Permits/1K Pop	1.82	p17
Affordability	0.28	p59
Employment	+0.7%	p31
Net AGI Migration	+$242K	p15

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Surge

YoY Permit Growth

+51.1%Far above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Permit activity is surging and demand is absorbing it. Both sides of the market are running hot — monitor for overheating if liquidity shifts.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY+7.9%

Days on Market YoY-1.3%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 3 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	36	24	61	58	48	16
2025-09	Hyp	36	32	61	58	37	16
2025-07	Rec	41	51	61	58	47	16
2025-06	Ress	39	29	61	54	65	16
2025-04	Ress	31	27	61	54	19	16
2025-03	Hyp	36	64	61	59	5	16
2025-01	Hyp	35	43	61	59	19	16
2024-12	Ress	36	58	61	60	9	16
2024-10	Ress	40	78	61	60	17	16
2024-09	Hyp	42	52	61	59	51	16
2024-07	Ress	38	54	61	59	29	16
2024-05	Ress	33	28	61	57	25	16
2024-03	Exp	44	47	61	60	66	16
2024-01	Exp	38	64	61	60	17	16
2023-10	Exp	39	35	61	57	55	16
2023-08	Rec	36	16	61	56	53	16
2023-06	Rec	42	24	61	60	80	16
2023-03	Hyp	39	10	61	59	75	16
2023-01	Ress	40	9	61	59	86	16
2022-11	Ress	33	8	61	38	63	16
2022-10	Rec	33	8	61	38	63	16
2022-09	Ress	34	29	61	47	41	16
2022-07	Hyp	33	31	61	47	33	16
2022-05	Exp	33	50	61	50	11	16
2022-03	Exp	32	52	61	50	3	16
2022-01	Rec	32	54	61	50	1	16
2021-11	Rec	36	52	61	59	5	27
2021-10	Exp	36	53	61	59	4	27
2021-08	Exp	39	62	61	60	13	27
2021-05	Rec	40	68	61	60	14	27
2021-03	Rec	54	67	61	59	97	27
2021-01	Exp	53	66	61	59	96	27
2020-11	Exp	49	42	61	59	95	24
2020-10	Rec	48	38	61	59	94	24
2020-08	Rec	46	30	61	58	92	24
2020-05	Exp	48	41	61	60	92	24
2020-03	Exp	39	24	61	58	58	24
2020-01	Rec	40	25	61	58	63	24
2019-11	Rec	50	47	61	60	61	59
2019-09	Exp	46	22	61	58	68	59
2019-07	Exp	39	16	61	58	29	59
2019-06	Hyp	39	31	61	59	15	59
2019-05	Rec	40	34	61	59	19	59
2019-03	Rec	48	53	61	59	46	59
2019-02	Ress	49	57	61	59	48	59
2019-01	Hyp	48	61	61	59	37	59

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022