Salem, OR

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 41420Compare

Risk Rank: #252 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -6

35score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Salem's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 252nd of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recession. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory. Deep correction with severe liquidity stress — significant risk remains.

Salem experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through mid-2025.

Inventory has surged +21% YoY with days on market up +12% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase·from Recovery

Demand contraction with rising inventory pressure

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by affordability and permits per capita, while employment provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Affordabilityp70

Mortgage payment / income

Permits per Capitap41

Permits per 1,000 residents

Migrationp36

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +21% YoY with days on market up +12% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↑

Active Listings YoY

+21.1%p71

Days on Market YoY

+12.2%p71

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-0.4%p59

Months in status44

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumBelow Avg

+2.0%p34

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-14.6%p26

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaNeutral

3.33p41

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityElevated

0.30p70

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentLow Risk

+2.2%p3

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationBelow Avg

+$39Kp36

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Active correction with weak transactions but available credit. Buyers can borrow — they're choosing not to at current prices.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-14.6%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Both supply and demand are in contraction. The market is in full retreat — builders have stopped and buyers have pulled back.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorGovernment 24.2%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	38	36	36	72	1	32
2025-10	Hyp	36	27	36	72	1	32
2025-08	Exp	37	29	36	72	3	32
2025-06	Ress	46	63	36	76	21	32
2025-05	Rec	44	66	36	76	5	32
2025-03	Ress	36	18	36	69	8	32
2025-02	Hyp	35	15	36	69	7	32
2025-01	Rec	35	15	36	69	5	32
2024-11	Hyp	39	21	36	74	20	32
2024-10	Rec	38	19	36	74	18	32
2024-09	Hyp	37	12	36	73	18	32
2024-07	Hyp	43	20	36	73	45	32
2024-06	Ress	41	15	36	75	39	32
2024-04	Ress	40	11	36	75	34	32
2024-03	Exp	40	20	36	75	29	32
2024-01	Exp	43	27	36	75	37	32
2023-11	Rec	41	29	36	83	15	32
2023-09	Rec	41	18	36	83	28	32
2023-06	Hyp	40	24	36	83	14	32
2023-04	Hyp	41	21	36	83	22	32
2023-02	Ress	42	15	36	83	38	32
2022-12	Ress	40	14	36	85	22	32
2022-10	Hyp	43	17	36	85	36	32
2022-08	Ress	48	20	36	84	62	32
2022-06	Ress	49	28	36	84	63	32
2022-03	Ress	53	55	36	87	59	32
2022-02	Hyp	50	58	36	87	35	32
2021-12	Hyp	52	64	36	88	36	36
2021-09	Hyp	56	80	36	89	44	36
2021-08	Exp	58	79	36	89	59	36
2021-06	Exp	57	85	36	91	41	36
2021-04	Rec	58	85	36	91	49	36
2021-02	Rec	58	89	36	91	47	36
2021-01	Exp	60	89	36	91	56	36
2020-11	Exp	55	74	36	83	47	39
2020-10	Rec	53	68	36	83	43	39
2020-08	Rec	51	67	36	82	31	39
2020-06	Exp	54	72	36	81	46	39
2020-04	Exp	52	66	36	81	40	39
2020-03	Rec	48	50	36	80	34	39
2020-01	Rec	52	55	36	80	50	39
2019-10	Rec	49	74	36	82	24	29
2019-07	Hyp	49	61	36	82	35	29
2019-05	Hyp	52	84	36	82	34	29
2019-03	Ress	53	89	36	81	33	29
2019-01	Ress	53	92	36	81	28	29

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023