Rankings/St. Louis, MO-IL

St. Louis, MO-IL

NeutralTier 1CBSA 41180Compare

Risk Rank: #150 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -5

49score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

St. Louis experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through mid-2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Expansion for 2 months·Previously: Expansion

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

St. Louis's housing market shows average risk, ranking 150th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Inventory is growing moderately (+11% YoY) with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by migration and employment. The market is in Expansion phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Migration

p96 (highest risk decile)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Employment

p63 (moderate)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Price Momentum

p62 (moderate)

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +11% pace with homes taking +2% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

+10.6%p60

Days on Market YoY

+1.7%p51

Months in status5

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.5%p72

Months in status44

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum62

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth34

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita25

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability13

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment63

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration96

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+3.2%	p62
Permit Growth	-9.9%	p34
Permits/1K Pop	2.18	p25
Affordability	0.23	p13
Employment	-0.0%	p63
Net AGI Migration	-$674K	p96

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-9.9%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Builders are pulling back but demand remains healthy. A supply constraint could form — fewer new units entering a market that is still absorbing well.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY+10.6%

Days on Market YoY+1.7%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 5 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

St. Louis's 14 counties show moderate divergence — Lincoln County carries the most risk (High Risk) while Bond County anchors the lower end.

Moderate15.7

14 of 15 counties scored

St. Louis, MO-IL shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Lincoln County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by price momentum), while Bond County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Lincoln CountyRisk Driver	82	High Risk	7.1%	100	100	46
Jefferson County	70	Elevated	7.1%	62	62	85
St. Clair County	66	Elevated	7.1%	69	92	38
Clinton County	64	Elevated	7.1%	92	77	23
Madison County	59	Elevated	7.1%	54	54	69
St. Louis city	51	Average	7.1%	15	38	100
Calhoun CountyUnscored	50	Average	—	—	—	—
Franklin County	49	Average	7.1%	8	85	54
Macoupin County	44	Below Average	7.1%	85	46	0
St. Louis County	44	Below Average	7.1%	23	31	77
St. Charles County	41	Below Average	7.1%	31	0	92
Monroe County	39	Below Average	7.1%	77	8	31
Warren County	38	Below Average	7.1%	38	15	62
Jersey County	28	Below Average	7.1%	0	69	15
Bond CountyStabilizer	26	Below Average	7.1%	46	23	8

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Exp	51	66	43	12	61	96
2025-10	Rec	56	69	43	12	86	96
2025-08	Rec	58	72	43	12	93	96
2025-07	Hyp	56	75	43	12	78	96
2025-06	Ress	55	66	43	13	85	96
2025-04	Ress	57	68	43	13	91	96
2025-03	Hyp	54	79	43	12	68	96
2025-02	Exp	57	80	43	12	81	96
2024-12	Exp	54	71	43	13	75	96
2024-11	Rec	54	66	43	13	80	96
2024-09	Rec	52	56	43	11	74	96
2024-08	Hyp	52	61	43	11	72	96
2024-07	Rec	52	62	43	11	70	96
2024-06	Hyp	50	56	43	12	67	96
2024-04	Hyp	50	51	43	12	71	96
2024-03	Exp	51	44	43	12	82	96
2024-01	Exp	53	58	43	12	78	96
2023-10	Exp	54	72	43	14	72	96
2023-08	Rec	53	65	43	13	70	96
2023-06	Rec	55	70	43	15	78	96
2023-04	Hyp	49	56	43	15	56	96
2023-03	Ress	47	38	43	13	62	96
2023-01	Ress	47	39	43	13	63	96
2022-12	Hyp	50	34	43	13	85	96
2022-10	Exp	48	30	43	13	79	96
2022-09	Rec	46	18	43	12	76	96
2022-07	Rec	45	16	43	12	76	96
2022-06	Exp	44	20	43	14	61	96
2022-04	Exp	46	12	43	14	80	96
2022-01	Rec	45	14	43	14	76	96
2021-11	Rec	43	12	43	13	68	96
2021-09	Exp	43	14	43	13	62	96
2021-07	Exp	43	13	43	13	63	96
2021-04	Exp	44	25	43	14	59	96
2021-03	Rec	41	18	43	14	49	96
2021-01	Rec	41	17	43	14	47	96
2020-12	Exp	42	19	43	14	56	95
2020-10	Exp	42	17	43	14	54	95
2020-09	Rec	44	25	43	15	60	95
2020-07	Rec	44	32	43	14	51	95
2020-04	Rec	44	34	43	14	49	95
2020-02	Exp	45	43	43	15	48	95
2019-12	Exp	46	46	43	15	46	96
2019-09	Rec	45	35	43	15	55	96
2019-07	Rec	47	43	43	15	59	96
2019-06	Exp	48	46	43	15	63	96
2019-04	Exp	46	41	43	15	56	96
2019-03	Rec	48	37	43	15	72	96
2019-01	Rec	49	32	43	15	79	96

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022