Rankings/St. Louis, MO-IL

St. Louis, MO-IL

NeutralTier 1CBSA 41180Compare

Risk Rank: #142 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):↓ -9

49score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

St. Louis's housing market shows average risk, ranking 142nd of 273 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring. Inventory accumulating faster than demand — the market is shifting toward buyers.

St. Louis experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through mid-2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Inventory is elevated (+17% YoY) and days on market are up +0% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and price momentum, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp98

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Price Momentump66

12-month HPI change

Permit Growthp55

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+17% YoY) and days on market are up +0% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↑

Active Listings YoY

+16.6%p67

Days on Market YoY

+0.0%p45

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.8%p75

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumElevated

+3.0%p66

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthNeutral

+3.4%p55

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaBelow Avg

2.36p24

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk

0.24p13

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentBelow Avg

+0.7%p39

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk

-$358Kp98

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+3.4%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Permit activity is typical but demand is softening. Price pressure is forming on the demand side — this is not a supply problem.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Limited data

Largest SectorRetail Trade 55.5%

4 of 20 sectors disclosed · QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

St. Louis's 14 counties show moderate divergence — Madison County carries the most risk (Elevated) while St. Louis County anchors the lower end.

Moderate13.8

14 of 15 counties scored

St. Louis, MO-IL shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Madison County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by price momentum), while St. Louis County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Franklin County<5%	79	High Risk	3.8%	69	92	62
Madison CountyRisk Driver	69	Elevated	9.4%	85	85	69
Warren County<5%	68	Elevated	1.3%	62	54	54
St. Charles County	64	Elevated	14.8%	31	46	92
Monroe County<5%	62	Elevated	1.3%	77	77	31
Lincoln County<5%	58	Elevated	2.3%	8	100	46
Calhoun CountyUnscored	50	Average	—	—	—	—
Jefferson County	50	Average	8.2%	23	23	85
Jersey County<5%	40	Below Average	0.8%	92	0	15
St. Louis city	40	Below Average	10.3%	0	62	100
Bond County<5%	36	Below Average	0.6%	100	15	8
St. Clair County	34	Below Average	9.0%	46	8	38
St. Louis CountyStabilizer	34	Below Average	35.5%	15	38	77
Macoupin County<5%	34	Below Average	1.6%	38	69	0
Clinton County<5%	31	Below Average	1.3%	54	31	23

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Exp	50	73	47	12	49	98
2025-12	Exp	48	53	34	13	64	98
2025-10	Rec	56	69	43	12	86	96
2025-08	Rec	58	72	43	12	93	96
2025-07	Hyp	56	75	43	12	78	96
2025-06	Ress	55	66	43	13	85	96
2025-04	Ress	57	68	43	13	91	96
2025-03	Hyp	54	79	43	12	68	96
2025-02	Exp	57	80	43	12	81	96
2024-12	Exp	54	71	43	13	75	96
2024-11	Rec	54	66	43	13	80	96
2024-09	Rec	52	56	43	11	74	96
2024-08	Hyp	52	61	43	11	72	96
2024-07	Rec	52	62	43	11	70	96
2024-06	Hyp	50	56	43	12	67	96
2024-04	Hyp	50	51	43	12	71	96
2024-03	Exp	51	44	43	12	82	96
2024-01	Exp	53	58	43	12	78	96
2023-10	Exp	54	72	43	14	72	96
2023-08	Rec	53	65	43	13	70	96
2023-06	Rec	55	70	43	15	78	96
2023-04	Hyp	49	56	43	15	56	96
2023-03	Ress	47	38	43	13	62	96
2023-01	Ress	47	39	43	13	63	96
2022-12	Hyp	50	34	43	13	85	96
2022-10	Exp	48	30	43	13	79	96
2022-09	Rec	46	18	43	12	76	96
2022-07	Rec	45	16	43	12	76	96
2022-06	Exp	44	20	43	14	61	96
2022-04	Exp	46	12	43	14	80	96
2022-01	Rec	45	14	43	14	76	96
2021-11	Rec	43	12	43	13	68	96
2021-09	Exp	43	14	43	13	62	96
2021-07	Exp	43	13	43	13	63	96
2021-04	Exp	44	25	43	14	59	96
2021-03	Rec	41	18	43	14	49	96
2021-01	Rec	41	17	43	14	47	96
2020-12	Exp	42	19	43	14	56	95
2020-10	Exp	42	17	43	14	54	95
2020-09	Rec	44	25	43	15	60	95
2020-07	Rec	44	32	43	14	51	95
2020-04	Rec	44	34	43	14	49	95
2020-02	Exp	45	43	43	15	48	95
2019-12	Exp	46	46	43	15	46	96
2019-09	Rec	45	35	43	15	55	96
2019-07	Rec	47	43	43	15	59	96
2019-06	Exp	48	46	43	15	63	96
2019-04	Exp	46	41	43	15	56	96
2019-03	Rec	48	37	43	15	72	96
2019-01	Rec	49	32	43	15	79	96

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023