Rankings/St. George, UT

St. George, UT

NeutralTier 1CBSA 41100Compare

Risk Rank: #193 of 274Month: 2026-06Score change (12m):— +1

44score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

St. George's housing market shows average risk, ranking 193rd of 274 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

St. George experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +9% pace with homes taking +11% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

2 months in current phase·from Expansion

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permits per capita and permit growth, while employment provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permits per Capitap98

Permits per 1,000 residents

Permit Growthp68

YoY permit change

Price Momentump49

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +9% pace with homes taking +11% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

+8.9%p58

Days on Market YoY

+11.3%p70

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+1.9%p86

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumNeutral

+1.4%p49

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthElevated

+9.8%p68

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaHigh Risk

14.48p98

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityBelow Avg

0.27p31

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentLow Risk

+3.5%p1

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationLow Risk

+$147Kp18

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

N/ANormal

Rate Change (YoY)

-5 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+194 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.1 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+9.8%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorHealth Care 16%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-05	Exp	46	39	70	31	21	18
2025-12	Rec	38	19	23	30	42	18
2025-11	Hyp	50	17	63	31	77	15
2025-09	Hyp	43	12	63	31	40	15
2025-06	Ress	43	45	63	34	1	15
2025-04	Ress	46	57	63	34	9	15
2025-01	Hyp	38	19	63	35	1	15
2024-11	Ress	42	35	63	38	1	15
2024-09	Ress	38	16	63	37	1	15
2024-08	Hyp	38	11	63	37	1	15
2024-06	Exp	37	6	63	34	5	15
2024-04	Exp	39	21	63	34	4	15
2024-01	Exp	40	11	63	40	15	15
2023-10	Exp	42	14	63	55	5	15
2023-09	Rec	42	17	63	59	1	15
2023-07	Rec	41	4	63	59	5	15
2023-06	Hyp	40	1	63	55	9	15
2023-04	Hyp	40	2	63	55	4	15
2023-02	Ress	43	12	63	62	10	15
2022-12	Ress	42	12	63	60	4	15
2022-10	Hyp	44	16	63	60	11	15
2022-08	Hyp	58	76	63	71	26	15
2022-06	Ress	60	86	63	72	26	15
2022-04	Ress	61	90	63	72	28	15
2022-01	Hyp	60	97	63	69	21	15
2021-12	Ress	68	100	64	85	48	15
2021-10	Ress	65	100	64	85	27	15
2021-09	Exp	63	99	64	83	18	15
2021-07	Exp	61	99	64	83	5	15
2021-04	Rec	61	99	64	81	7	15
2021-02	Rec	58	97	64	74	0	15
2020-11	Rec	53	91	64	50	0	14
2020-08	Rec	52	90	64	49	0	14
2020-05	Exp	52	88	64	47	2	14
2020-03	Exp	51	82	64	47	2	14
2019-12	Rec	49	68	64	46	3	16
2019-10	Rec	52	82	64	46	7	16
2019-07	Rec	55	93	64	46	12	16
2019-06	Hyp	54	94	64	45	6	16
2019-05	Ress	54	94	64	45	10	16
2019-03	Ress	54	95	64	46	4	16
2019-02	Hyp	53	94	64	46	1	16
2019-01	Hyp	53	93	64	46	3	16

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-06

Income2024

Employment2026-06

Migration2023