Rankings/St. George, UT

St. George, UT

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 41100Compare

Risk Rank: #244 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— -3

39score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

St. George experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 1 month·Previously: Hypersupply

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

St. George's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 244th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring.

Executive Summary

Risk is Below Average, driven primarily by permits per capita and employment. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is watch and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Permits per Capita

p97 (highest risk decile)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Employment

p42 (below average risk)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Affordability

p32 (below average risk)

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+20% YoY) and days on market are up +8% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↓

Active Listings YoY

+20.2%p70

Days on Market YoY

+7.5%p63

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+1.4%p83

Months in status39

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum24

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth24

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita97

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability32

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment42

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration15

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+0.8%	p24
Permit Growth	-15.8%	p24
Permits/1K Pop	13.64	p97
Affordability	0.25	p32
Employment	+0.5%	p42
Net AGI Migration	+$255K	p15

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Early-stage recovery with lingering transaction weakness. Credit is available but buyer activity hasn't fully returned yet.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-15.8%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Sharp building pullback with softening demand. Mixed signals — builders saw weakness early, but demand hasn't fully deteriorated yet.

Liquidity

Watch↓

Active Listings YoY+20.2%

Days on Market YoY+7.5%

AssessmentInventory building

Watch for 1 monthData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	50	17	63	31	77	15
2025-09	Hyp	43	12	63	31	40	15
2025-06	Ress	43	45	63	34	1	15
2025-04	Ress	46	57	63	34	9	15
2025-01	Hyp	38	19	63	35	1	15
2024-11	Ress	42	35	63	38	1	15
2024-09	Ress	38	16	63	37	1	15
2024-08	Hyp	38	11	63	37	1	15
2024-06	Exp	37	6	63	34	5	15
2024-04	Exp	39	21	63	34	4	15
2024-01	Exp	40	11	63	40	15	15
2023-10	Exp	42	14	63	55	5	15
2023-09	Rec	42	17	63	59	1	15
2023-07	Rec	41	4	63	59	5	15
2023-06	Hyp	40	1	63	55	9	15
2023-04	Hyp	40	2	63	55	4	15
2023-02	Ress	43	12	63	62	10	15
2022-12	Ress	42	12	63	60	4	15
2022-10	Hyp	44	16	63	60	11	15
2022-08	Hyp	58	76	63	71	26	15
2022-06	Ress	60	86	63	72	26	15
2022-04	Ress	61	90	63	72	28	15
2022-01	Hyp	60	97	63	69	21	15
2021-12	Ress	68	100	64	85	48	15
2021-10	Ress	65	100	64	85	27	15
2021-09	Exp	63	99	64	83	18	15
2021-07	Exp	61	99	64	83	5	15
2021-04	Rec	61	99	64	81	7	15
2021-02	Rec	58	97	64	74	0	15
2020-11	Rec	53	91	64	50	0	14
2020-08	Rec	52	90	64	49	0	14
2020-05	Exp	52	88	64	47	2	14
2020-03	Exp	51	82	64	47	2	14
2019-12	Rec	49	68	64	46	3	16
2019-10	Rec	52	82	64	46	7	16
2019-07	Rec	55	93	64	46	12	16
2019-06	Hyp	54	94	64	45	6	16
2019-05	Ress	54	94	64	45	10	16
2019-03	Ress	54	95	64	46	4	16
2019-02	Hyp	53	94	64	46	1	16
2019-01	Hyp	53	93	64	46	3	16

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022