Rankings/St. Cloud, MN

St. Cloud, MN

NeutralTier 1CBSA 41060Compare

Risk Rank: #108 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— -1

53score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

St. Cloud experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through late 2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Hypersupply for 2 months·Previously: Hypersupply

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

St. Cloud's housing market shows average risk, ranking 108th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by employment and migration. The market is in Hypersupply phase. Liquidity is watch and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Employment

p80 (elevated risk)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration

p73 (moderate)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Affordability

p49 (below average risk)

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+27% YoY) and days on market are up -2% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↑

Active Listings YoY

+27.3%p77

Days on Market YoY

-1.5%p45

Months in status2

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.8%p75

Months in status16

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum34

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth37

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita45

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability49

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment80

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration73

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+1.5%	p34
Permit Growth	-8.6%	p37
Permits/1K Pop	3.46	p45
Affordability	0.27	p49
Employment	-0.4%	p80
Net AGI Migration	-$27K	p73

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-8.6%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Permit activity is typical but demand is softening. Price pressure is forming on the demand side — this is not a supply problem.

Liquidity

Watch↑

Active Listings YoY+27.3%

Days on Market YoY-1.5%

AssessmentInventory building

Watch for 2 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	54	31	39	48	92	73
2025-10	Rec	53	28	39	48	87	73
2025-08	Hyp	52	15	39	48	94	73
2025-07	Ress	50	11	39	48	85	73
2025-05	Ress	50	29	39	44	74	73
2025-04	Hyp	50	49	39	44	57	73
2025-03	Exp	56	69	39	48	64	73
2025-01	Exp	52	60	39	48	53	73
2024-12	Rec	54	67	39	51	55	73
2024-10	Rec	50	51	39	51	42	73
2024-09	Hyp	55	73	39	57	45	73
2024-07	Hyp	50	67	39	57	22	73
2024-05	Rec	41	9	39	46	39	73
2024-04	Ress	42	8	39	46	47	73
2024-02	Rec	48	32	39	47	57	73
2024-01	Hyp	53	52	39	47	66	73
2023-11	Hyp	57	74	39	45	68	73
2023-10	Exp	59	77	39	45	80	73
2023-08	Exp	52	58	39	45	54	73
2023-07	Rec	52	47	39	45	67	73
2023-05	Rec	54	63	39	49	61	73
2023-03	Ress	43	29	39	42	34	73
2023-01	Hyp	48	35	39	42	60	73
2022-12	Exp	42	18	39	37	46	73
2022-10	Exp	43	9	39	37	60	73
2022-09	Rec	50	21	39	43	81	73
2022-07	Rec	52	27	39	43	91	73
2022-06	Exp	54	35	39	44	95	73
2022-04	Exp	55	35	39	44	96	73
2022-03	Rec	52	16	39	41	99	73
2022-01	Rec	50	21	39	41	87	73
2021-12	Exp	56	47	39	50	78	81
2021-10	Exp	59	44	39	50	99	81
2021-07	Exp	55	32	39	49	89	81
2021-05	Rec	53	33	39	50	74	81
2021-03	Rec	50	24	39	49	65	81
2020-12	Exp	48	29	39	39	75	66
2020-10	Exp	46	33	39	39	60	66
2020-09	Rec	47	39	39	42	58	66
2020-07	Rec	46	26	39	42	66	66
2020-04	Rec	44	29	39	41	48	66
2020-01	Rec	50	34	39	43	78	66
2019-11	Exp	53	35	39	41	86	79
2019-09	Exp	57	61	39	43	82	79
2019-08	Hyp	54	54	39	43	72	79
2019-07	Exp	52	47	39	43	68	79
2019-06	Hyp	52	29	39	43	81	79
2019-05	Exp	49	28	39	43	64	79
2019-03	Exp	50	34	39	43	63	79
2019-01	Exp	50	39	39	43	60	79

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022