Rankings/St. Cloud, MN

St. Cloud, MN

NeutralTier 1CBSA 41060Compare

Risk Rank: #104 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):— +1

53score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

St. Cloud's housing market shows average risk, ranking 104th of 273 metros. The market recently entered Recession. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory. Deep correction with severe liquidity stress — significant risk remains.

St. Cloud experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through late 2025.

Inventory has surged +31% YoY with days on market up -12% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Demand contraction with rising inventory pressure

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by employment and migration, while permit growth provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Employmentp91

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migrationp85

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Affordabilityp44

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +31% YoY with days on market up -12% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↑

Active Listings YoY

+31.0%p81

Days on Market YoY

-11.5%p26

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+3.3%p93

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumNeutral

+2.0%p43

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk

-19.8%p15

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaBelow Avg

3.21p39

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityNeutral

0.29p44

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentHigh Risk

-0.8%p91

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk

-$54Kp85

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Active correction with weak transactions but available credit. Buyers can borrow — they're choosing not to at current prices.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-19.8%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Normal permit activity but demand has deteriorated significantly. The stress is from existing inventory and slowing absorption, not new construction.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorHealth Care 18.6%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Rec	40	11	16	43	48	85
2026-05	Hyp	46	14	13	43	86	85
2025-11	Hyp	54	31	39	48	92	73
2025-10	Rec	53	28	39	48	87	73
2025-08	Hyp	52	15	39	48	94	73
2025-07	Ress	50	11	39	48	85	73
2025-05	Ress	50	29	39	44	74	73
2025-04	Hyp	50	49	39	44	57	73
2025-03	Exp	56	69	39	48	64	73
2025-01	Exp	52	60	39	48	53	73
2024-12	Rec	54	67	39	51	55	73
2024-10	Rec	50	51	39	51	42	73
2024-09	Hyp	55	73	39	57	45	73
2024-07	Hyp	50	67	39	57	22	73
2024-05	Rec	41	9	39	46	39	73
2024-04	Ress	42	8	39	46	47	73
2024-02	Rec	48	32	39	47	57	73
2024-01	Hyp	53	52	39	47	66	73
2023-11	Hyp	57	74	39	45	68	73
2023-10	Exp	59	77	39	45	80	73
2023-08	Exp	52	58	39	45	54	73
2023-07	Rec	52	47	39	45	67	73
2023-05	Rec	54	63	39	49	61	73
2023-03	Ress	43	29	39	42	34	73
2023-01	Hyp	48	35	39	42	60	73
2022-12	Exp	42	18	39	37	46	73
2022-10	Exp	43	9	39	37	60	73
2022-09	Rec	50	21	39	43	81	73
2022-07	Rec	52	27	39	43	91	73
2022-06	Exp	54	35	39	44	95	73
2022-04	Exp	55	35	39	44	96	73
2022-03	Rec	52	16	39	41	99	73
2022-01	Rec	50	21	39	41	87	73
2021-12	Exp	56	47	39	50	78	81
2021-10	Exp	59	44	39	50	99	81
2021-07	Exp	55	32	39	49	89	81
2021-05	Rec	53	33	39	50	74	81
2021-03	Rec	50	24	39	49	65	81
2020-12	Exp	48	29	39	39	75	66
2020-10	Exp	46	33	39	39	60	66
2020-09	Rec	47	39	39	42	58	66
2020-07	Rec	46	26	39	42	66	66
2020-04	Rec	44	29	39	41	48	66
2020-01	Rec	50	34	39	43	78	66
2019-11	Exp	53	35	39	41	86	79
2019-09	Exp	57	61	39	43	82	79
2019-08	Hyp	54	54	39	43	72	79
2019-07	Exp	52	47	39	43	68	79
2019-06	Hyp	52	29	39	43	81	79
2019-05	Exp	49	28	39	43	64	79
2019-03	Exp	50	34	39	43	63	79
2019-01	Exp	50	39	39	43	60	79

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023