Rankings/Saginaw, MI

Saginaw, MI

NeutralTier 1CBSA 40980Compare

Risk Rank: #108 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +9

53score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Saginaw experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Hypersupply for 2 months·Previously: Hypersupply

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Saginaw's housing market shows average risk, ranking 108th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by price momentum and permit growth. The market is in Hypersupply phase. Liquidity is stress and valuation is compressed.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Price Momentum

p94 (highest risk decile)

12-month HPI change

Permit Growth

p72 (moderate)

YoY permit change

Migration

p59 (moderate)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +27% YoY with days on market up +31% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↓

Active Listings YoY

+27.1%p77

Days on Market YoY

+30.9%p89

Months in status5

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Compressed—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-3.1%p22

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum94

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth72

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita3

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability31

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment57

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration59

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+6.0%	p94
Permit Growth	+11.7%	p72
Permits/1K Pop	0.91	p3
Affordability	0.25	p31
Employment	+0.1%	p57
Net AGI Migration	-$551	p59

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Elevated

YoY Permit Growth

+11.7%Above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Above-normal supply meeting deteriorating demand. Correction risk is rising — new units are entering a market where existing inventory is already building.

Liquidity

Stress↓

Active Listings YoY+27.1%

Days on Market YoY+30.9%

AssessmentSignificant supply buildup

Stress for 5 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	38	87	11	29	41	58
2025-10	Ress	37	78	11	29	47	58
2025-08	Ress	40	78	11	29	66	58
2025-07	Hyp	42	75	11	29	79	58
2025-06	Ress	39	51	11	27	85	58
2025-04	Ress	41	58	11	27	89	58
2025-03	Hyp	32	31	11	22	70	58
2025-02	Exp	35	46	11	22	73	58
2024-12	Exp	44	81	11	26	88	58
2024-09	Rec	46	83	11	26	94	58
2024-07	Rec	47	93	11	26	91	58
2024-06	Ress	42	73	11	25	86	58
2024-05	Rec	40	59	11	25	84	58
2024-03	Hyp	33	37	11	22	71	58
2024-02	Ress	38	66	11	22	71	58
2023-12	Ress	44	97	11	22	74	58
2023-11	Hyp	44	97	11	22	78	58
2023-10	Exp	43	95	11	22	71	58
2023-08	Rec	42	81	11	21	82	58
2023-06	Rec	46	97	11	26	83	58
2023-05	Exp	47	91	11	25	95	58
2023-03	Exp	35	22	11	18	99	58
2022-12	Rec	35	21	11	25	95	58
2022-10	Rec	34	14	11	25	92	58
2022-07	Rec	31	18	11	25	73	58
2022-05	Hyp	33	46	11	30	53	58
2022-04	Ress	32	44	11	30	47	58
2022-02	Ress	31	29	11	27	61	58
2021-11	Ress	38	47	11	30	73	67
2021-08	Ress	40	46	11	28	88	67
2021-07	Exp	39	47	11	28	79	67
2021-05	Exp	26	48	11	28	3	67
2021-02	Rec	44	65	11	29	88	67
2020-12	Rec	40	57	11	25	95	51
2020-11	Exp	37	47	11	25	87	51
2020-09	Exp	34	26	11	24	88	51
2020-08	Rec	34	28	11	24	90	51
2020-06	Rec	38	43	11	25	94	51
2020-03	Rec	38	51	11	24	93	51
2019-12	Rec	44	75	11	25	92	59
2019-11	Exp	46	87	11	25	96	59
2019-09	Exp	46	94	11	25	84	59
2019-06	Rec	40	67	11	23	79	59
2019-04	Rec	45	87	11	23	89	59
2019-03	Exp	46	91	11	25	88	59
2019-01	Exp	42	64	11	25	95	59

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022