Rankings/Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA

Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 40900Compare

Risk Rank: #261 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +5

37score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Sacramento experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 3 months·Previously: Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Sacramento's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 261st of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory is growing moderately (+12% YoY) with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Below Average, driven primarily by employment and permits per capita. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Employment

p76 (elevated risk)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permits per Capita

p54 (moderate)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Permit Growth

p39 (below average risk)

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +12% pace with homes taking +10% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+12.5%p62

Days on Market YoY

+9.7%p67

Months in status3

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+1.7%p85

Months in status23

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum19

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth39

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita54

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability25

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment76

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration11

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+0.4%	p19
Permit Growth	-7.5%	p39
Permits/1K Pop	4.33	p54
Affordability	0.24	p25
Employment	-0.3%	p76
Net AGI Migration	+$379K	p11

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-7.5%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Builders are pulling back but demand remains healthy. A supply constraint could form — fewer new units entering a market that is still absorbing well.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY+12.5%

Days on Market YoY+9.7%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 3 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Sacramento's counties diverge significantly — Yolo County (High Risk) contrasts sharply with El Dorado County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High30.0Limited data

4 of 4 counties scored

Sacramento, CA shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Yolo County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by affordability), while El Dorado County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Yolo CountyRisk Driver	78	High Risk	25.0%	67	67	100
Sacramento County	67	Elevated	25.0%	100	33	67
Placer County	55	Average	25.0%	33	100	33
El Dorado CountyStabilizer	0	Low Risk	25.0%	0	0	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	36	18	41	24	67	11
2025-09	Hyp	38	17	41	24	77	11
2025-07	Hyp	38	16	41	24	76	11
2025-05	Ress	32	5	41	27	48	11
2025-03	Ress	32	5	41	28	50	11
2025-01	Hyp	36	16	41	28	61	11
2024-11	Hyp	35	17	41	29	55	11
2024-10	Ress	36	22	41	29	55	11
2024-08	Ress	34	33	41	29	34	11
2024-07	Hyp	35	39	41	29	32	11
2024-06	Ress	43	74	41	36	39	11
2024-04	Ress	37	52	41	36	26	11
2024-03	Hyp	37	49	41	34	31	11
2024-02	Exp	40	54	41	34	41	11
2023-12	Exp	41	49	41	30	60	11
2023-09	Exp	36	22	41	29	58	11
2023-08	Rec	36	10	41	29	70	11
2023-06	Rec	36	6	41	33	70	11
2023-03	Rec	36	0	41	33	77	11
2023-02	Hyp	36	1	41	33	70	11
2023-01	Ress	36	1	41	33	71	11
2022-11	Ress	32	0	41	35	46	11
2022-10	Hyp	34	0	41	35	57	11
2022-08	Hyp	35	7	41	49	43	11
2022-07	Ress	35	8	41	49	42	11
2022-05	Ress	41	54	41	56	27	11
2022-04	Exp	42	56	41	56	34	11
2022-02	Exp	42	64	41	58	23	11
2022-01	Rec	42	67	41	58	19	11
2021-11	Rec	42	71	41	54	20	8
2021-10	Exp	41	72	41	54	16	8
2021-08	Exp	41	79	41	53	9	8
2021-05	Exp	45	82	41	53	29	8
2021-03	Rec	47	78	41	49	50	8
2021-01	Rec	48	76	41	49	61	8
2020-12	Exp	46	67	41	56	53	4
2020-10	Exp	46	63	41	56	55	4
2020-09	Rec	44	43	41	56	62	4
2020-07	Rec	42	37	41	55	57	4
2020-05	Exp	42	47	41	55	51	4
2020-03	Exp	36	40	41	55	23	4
2020-01	Rec	36	39	41	55	24	4
2019-11	Rec	34	29	41	54	21	5
2019-08	Rec	34	23	41	55	22	5
2019-05	Rec	34	21	41	54	24	5
2019-03	Ress	33	27	41	54	16	5
2019-01	Ress	36	33	41	54	25	5

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022