Rankings/Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA

Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 40900Compare

Risk Rank: #251 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— +4

36score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Sacramento's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 251st of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory is growing moderately (+12% YoY) with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Sacramento experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +12% pace with homes taking +10% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

3 months in current phase·from Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by employment and permits per capita, while migration provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Employmentp75

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permits per Capitap53

Permits per 1,000 residents

Permit Growthp39

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +12% pace with homes taking +10% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+12.5%p62

Days on Market YoY

+9.7%p67

Months in status3

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+1.2%p80

Months in status23

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumLow Risk

+0.9%p17

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-7.5%p39

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaNeutral

4.33p53

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityBelow Avg

0.24p24

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentElevated

-0.3%p75

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationLow Risk

+$379Kp10

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-76 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-7.5%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Builders are pulling back but demand remains healthy. A supply constraint could form — fewer new units entering a market that is still absorbing well.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorGovernment 25.6%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Sacramento's counties diverge significantly — Yolo County (Elevated) contrasts sharply with El Dorado County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High18.1Limited data

4 of 4 counties scored

Sacramento, CA shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Yolo County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by affordability), while El Dorado County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Sacramento County	67	Elevated	65.7%	100	33	67
Yolo CountyRisk Driver	67	Elevated	9.1%	67	67	100
Placer County	66	Elevated	17.3%	33	100	33
El Dorado CountyStabilizer	0	Low Risk	7.9%	0	0	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	36	18	41	24	67	11
2025-09	Hyp	38	17	41	24	77	11
2025-07	Hyp	38	16	41	24	76	11
2025-05	Ress	32	5	41	27	48	11
2025-03	Ress	32	5	41	28	50	11
2025-01	Hyp	36	16	41	28	61	11
2024-11	Hyp	35	17	41	29	55	11
2024-10	Ress	36	22	41	29	55	11
2024-08	Ress	34	33	41	29	34	11
2024-07	Hyp	35	39	41	29	32	11
2024-06	Ress	43	74	41	36	39	11
2024-04	Ress	37	52	41	36	26	11
2024-03	Hyp	37	49	41	34	31	11
2024-02	Exp	40	54	41	34	41	11
2023-12	Exp	41	49	41	30	60	11
2023-09	Exp	36	22	41	29	58	11
2023-08	Rec	36	10	41	29	70	11
2023-06	Rec	36	6	41	33	70	11
2023-03	Rec	36	0	41	33	77	11
2023-02	Hyp	36	1	41	33	70	11
2023-01	Ress	36	1	41	33	71	11
2022-11	Ress	32	0	41	35	46	11
2022-10	Hyp	34	0	41	35	57	11
2022-08	Hyp	35	7	41	49	43	11
2022-07	Ress	35	8	41	49	42	11
2022-05	Ress	41	54	41	56	27	11
2022-04	Exp	42	56	41	56	34	11
2022-02	Exp	42	64	41	58	23	11
2022-01	Rec	42	67	41	58	19	11
2021-11	Rec	42	71	41	54	20	8
2021-10	Exp	41	72	41	54	16	8
2021-08	Exp	41	79	41	53	9	8
2021-05	Exp	45	82	41	53	29	8
2021-03	Rec	47	78	41	49	50	8
2021-01	Rec	48	76	41	49	61	8
2020-12	Exp	46	67	41	56	53	4
2020-10	Exp	46	63	41	56	55	4
2020-09	Rec	44	43	41	56	62	4
2020-07	Rec	42	37	41	55	57	4
2020-05	Exp	42	47	41	55	51	4
2020-03	Exp	36	40	41	55	23	4
2020-01	Rec	36	39	41	55	24	4
2019-11	Rec	34	29	41	54	21	5
2019-08	Rec	34	23	41	55	22	5
2019-05	Rec	34	21	41	54	24	5
2019-03	Ress	33	27	41	54	16	5
2019-01	Ress	36	33	41	54	25	5

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022