Rankings/Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA

Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 40900Compare

Risk Rank: #258 of 274Month: 2026-06Score change (12m):— -2

32score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Sacramento's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 258th of 274 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Sacramento experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is declining (-7% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

2 months in current phase·from Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permits per capita and permit growth, while migration provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permits per Capitap53

Permits per 1,000 residents

Permit Growthp44

YoY permit change

Employmentp37

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is declining (-7% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

-7.1%p40

Days on Market YoY

-2.3%p43

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+1.3%p81

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumBelow Avg

+0.7%p25

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthNeutral

-4.0%p44

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaNeutral

4.32p53

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityBelow Avg

0.25p23

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentBelow Avg

+0.7%p37

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationLow Risk

+$379Kp8

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

N/ANormal

Rate Change (YoY)

-5 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+194 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.1 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-4.0%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Builders are pulling back but demand remains healthy. A supply constraint could form — fewer new units entering a market that is still absorbing well.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorGovernment 25.6%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Sacramento's 4 counties show moderate divergence — Sacramento County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Yolo County anchors the lower end.

Moderate13.2Limited data

4 of 4 counties scored

Sacramento, CA shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Sacramento County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by price momentum), while Yolo County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Sacramento CountyRisk Driver	67	Elevated	65.7%	67	67	67
Placer County	66	Elevated	17.3%	100	33	33
El Dorado County	42	Below Average	7.9%	33	100	0
Yolo CountyStabilizer	25	Low Risk	9.1%	0	0	100

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-05	Rec	27	19	33	23	27	8
2025-11	Rec	36	18	41	24	67	11
2025-09	Hyp	38	17	41	24	77	11
2025-07	Hyp	38	16	41	24	76	11
2025-05	Ress	32	5	41	27	48	11
2025-03	Ress	32	5	41	28	50	11
2025-01	Hyp	36	16	41	28	61	11
2024-11	Hyp	35	17	41	29	55	11
2024-10	Ress	36	22	41	29	55	11
2024-08	Ress	34	33	41	29	34	11
2024-07	Hyp	35	39	41	29	32	11
2024-06	Ress	43	74	41	36	39	11
2024-04	Ress	37	52	41	36	26	11
2024-03	Hyp	37	49	41	34	31	11
2024-02	Exp	40	54	41	34	41	11
2023-12	Exp	41	49	41	30	60	11
2023-09	Exp	36	22	41	29	58	11
2023-08	Rec	36	10	41	29	70	11
2023-06	Rec	36	6	41	33	70	11
2023-03	Rec	36	0	41	33	77	11
2023-02	Hyp	36	1	41	33	70	11
2023-01	Ress	36	1	41	33	71	11
2022-11	Ress	32	0	41	35	46	11
2022-10	Hyp	34	0	41	35	57	11
2022-08	Hyp	35	7	41	49	43	11
2022-07	Ress	35	8	41	49	42	11
2022-05	Ress	41	54	41	56	27	11
2022-04	Exp	42	56	41	56	34	11
2022-02	Exp	42	64	41	58	23	11
2022-01	Rec	42	67	41	58	19	11
2021-11	Rec	42	71	41	54	20	8
2021-10	Exp	41	72	41	54	16	8
2021-08	Exp	41	79	41	53	9	8
2021-05	Exp	45	82	41	53	29	8
2021-03	Rec	47	78	41	49	50	8
2021-01	Rec	48	76	41	49	61	8
2020-12	Exp	46	67	41	56	53	4
2020-10	Exp	46	63	41	56	55	4
2020-09	Rec	44	43	41	56	62	4
2020-07	Rec	42	37	41	55	57	4
2020-05	Exp	42	47	41	55	51	4
2020-03	Exp	36	40	41	55	23	4
2020-01	Rec	36	39	41	55	24	4
2019-11	Rec	34	29	41	54	21	5
2019-08	Rec	34	23	41	55	22	5
2019-05	Rec	34	21	41	54	24	5
2019-03	Ress	33	27	41	54	16	5
2019-01	Ress	36	33	41	54	25	5

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-06

Income2024

Employment2026-06

Migration2023