Rankings/Rockford, IL

Rockford, IL

NeutralTier 1CBSA 40420Compare

Risk Rank: #74 of 274Month: 2026-05Score change (12m):— -1

56score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Rockford's housing market shows average risk, ranking 74th of 274 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Rockford experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is roughly flat (-2% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by employment and price momentum, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Employmentp90

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Price Momentump87

12-month HPI change

Permit Growthp85

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (-2% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

-2.4%p46

Days on Market YoY

+5.9%p60

Months in status1

Data through May 2026

Valuation

Balanced↓

Rent vs. Price Growth

+5.3%p98

Months in status1

Data through May 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumHigh Risk

+3.2%p87

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthHigh Risk

+27.3%p85

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaLow Risk

1.14p8

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk

0.21p5

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentHigh Risk

-1.3%p90

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationNeutral

-$4Kp60

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-3.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-38 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+199 bpsElevated

Stable for 9 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-5.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+27.3%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorManufacturing 18.6%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-12	Ress	52	92	69	5	82	60
2025-11	Exp	57	94	92	5	81	64
2025-10	Rec	56	96	92	5	77	64
2025-08	Rec	55	96	92	5	68	64
2025-05	Ress	57	93	92	4	85	64
2025-03	Exp	51	95	92	4	47	64
2025-01	Rec	51	96	92	4	46	64
2024-11	Rec	50	96	92	4	39	64
2024-10	Ress	50	94	92	4	42	64
2024-09	Hyp	52	94	92	3	57	64
2024-07	Rec	58	91	92	3	92	64
2024-05	Rec	56	94	92	4	75	64
2024-04	Exp	58	94	92	4	87	64
2024-02	Exp	58	95	92	3	93	64
2023-11	Exp	60	99	92	2	97	64
2023-08	Rec	57	96	92	3	83	64
2023-06	Rec	57	86	92	2	92	64
2023-03	Exp	51	45	92	2	97	64
2023-01	Exp	49	42	92	2	89	64
2022-10	Rec	37	19	92	1	42	64
2022-08	Rec	38	24	92	2	41	64
2022-05	Rec	35	19	92	1	29	64
2022-04	Hyp	37	26	92	1	37	64
2022-03	Exp	41	33	92	2	50	64
2022-02	Rec	38	35	92	2	29	64
2021-12	Rec	50	61	92	3	74	65
2021-10	Exp	50	52	92	3	83	65
2021-08	Exp	53	56	92	3	99	65
2021-05	Exp	47	47	92	2	70	65
2021-04	Rec	49	49	92	2	83	65
2021-02	Rec	48	40	92	2	82	65
2021-01	Exp	47	40	92	2	81	65
2020-11	Exp	50	39	92	1	85	76
2020-10	Rec	48	30	92	1	86	76
2020-08	Rec	43	13	92	1	72	76
2020-06	Exp	43	4	92	0	80	76
2020-04	Exp	44	10	92	0	79	76
2020-03	Rec	48	14	92	0	99	76
2020-01	Rec	50	29	92	0	98	76
2019-12	Exp	54	55	92	1	99	70
2019-10	Exp	49	29	92	1	97	70
2019-07	Exp	50	32	92	1	99	70
2019-06	Rec	47	20	92	0	98	70
2019-04	Rec	50	36	92	0	95	70
2019-03	Exp	49	35	92	0	93	70
2019-01	Exp	51	56	92	0	83	70

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-05

Income2024

Employment2026-05

Migration2023