Rankings/Rockford, IL

Rockford, IL

NeutralTier 1CBSA 40420Compare

Risk Rank: #108 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— +4

53score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Rockford experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through mid-2025.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recession for 1 month·Previously: Expansion

Demand contraction with rising inventory pressure

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Rockford's housing market shows average risk, ranking 108th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recession. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by price momentum and employment. The market is in Recession phase. Liquidity is stress and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Price Momentum

p91 (highest risk decile)

12-month HPI change

Employment

p82 (elevated risk)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permit Growth

p69 (moderate)

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +21% YoY with days on market up +12% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↑

Active Listings YoY

+20.9%p71

Days on Market YoY

+11.6%p70

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced↓

Rent vs. Price Growth

+2.9%p92

Months in status11

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum91

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth69

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita6

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability6

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment82

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration65

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+5.7%	p91
Permit Growth	+9.0%	p69
Permits/1K Pop	1.12	p6
Affordability	0.21	p6
Employment	-0.4%	p82
Net AGI Migration	-$13K	p65

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Active correction with weak transactions but available credit. Buyers can borrow — they're choosing not to at current prices.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+9.0%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Normal permit activity but demand has deteriorated significantly. The stress is from existing inventory and slowing absorption, not new construction.

Liquidity

Stress↑

Active Listings YoY+20.9%

Days on Market YoY+11.6%

AssessmentSignificant supply buildup

Stress for 1 monthData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Exp	57	94	92	5	81	64
2025-10	Rec	56	96	92	5	77	64
2025-08	Rec	55	96	92	5	68	64
2025-05	Ress	57	93	92	4	85	64
2025-03	Exp	51	95	92	4	47	64
2025-01	Rec	51	96	92	4	46	64
2024-11	Rec	50	96	92	4	39	64
2024-10	Ress	50	94	92	4	42	64
2024-09	Hyp	52	94	92	3	57	64
2024-07	Rec	58	91	92	3	92	64
2024-05	Rec	56	94	92	4	75	64
2024-04	Exp	58	94	92	4	87	64
2024-02	Exp	58	95	92	3	93	64
2023-11	Exp	60	99	92	2	97	64
2023-08	Rec	57	96	92	3	83	64
2023-06	Rec	57	86	92	2	92	64
2023-03	Exp	51	45	92	2	97	64
2023-01	Exp	49	42	92	2	89	64
2022-10	Rec	37	19	92	1	42	64
2022-08	Rec	38	24	92	2	41	64
2022-05	Rec	35	19	92	1	29	64
2022-04	Hyp	37	26	92	1	37	64
2022-03	Exp	41	33	92	2	50	64
2022-02	Rec	38	35	92	2	29	64
2021-12	Rec	50	61	92	3	74	65
2021-10	Exp	50	52	92	3	83	65
2021-08	Exp	53	56	92	3	99	65
2021-05	Exp	47	47	92	2	70	65
2021-04	Rec	49	49	92	2	83	65
2021-02	Rec	48	40	92	2	82	65
2021-01	Exp	47	40	92	2	81	65
2020-11	Exp	50	39	92	1	85	76
2020-10	Rec	48	30	92	1	86	76
2020-08	Rec	43	13	92	1	72	76
2020-06	Exp	43	4	92	0	80	76
2020-04	Exp	44	10	92	0	79	76
2020-03	Rec	48	14	92	0	99	76
2020-01	Rec	50	29	92	0	98	76
2019-12	Exp	54	55	92	1	99	70
2019-10	Exp	49	29	92	1	97	70
2019-07	Exp	50	32	92	1	99	70
2019-06	Rec	47	20	92	0	98	70
2019-04	Rec	50	36	92	0	95	70
2019-03	Exp	49	35	92	0	93	70
2019-01	Exp	51	56	92	0	83	70

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022