Rankings/Rockford, IL

Rockford, IL

NeutralTier 1CBSA 40420Compare

Risk Rank: #109 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— +3

52score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Rockford's housing market shows average risk, ranking 109th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recession. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory. Deep correction with severe liquidity stress — significant risk remains.

Rockford experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through mid-2025.

Inventory has surged +21% YoY with days on market up +12% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase·from Expansion

Demand contraction with rising inventory pressure

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by price momentum and employment, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Price Momentump92

12-month HPI change

Employmentp82

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permit Growthp69

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +21% YoY with days on market up +12% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↑

Active Listings YoY

+20.9%p71

Days on Market YoY

+11.6%p70

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced↓

Rent vs. Price Growth

+2.7%p91

Months in status11

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumHigh Risk

+5.7%p92

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthElevated

+9.0%p69

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaLow Risk

1.12p6

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk

0.21p5

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentHigh Risk

-0.4%p82

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationNeutral

-$4Kp60

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Active correction with weak transactions but available credit. Buyers can borrow — they're choosing not to at current prices.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+9.0%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Normal permit activity but demand has deteriorated significantly. The stress is from existing inventory and slowing absorption, not new construction.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorManufacturing 18.6%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Exp	57	94	92	5	81	64
2025-10	Rec	56	96	92	5	77	64
2025-08	Rec	55	96	92	5	68	64
2025-05	Ress	57	93	92	4	85	64
2025-03	Exp	51	95	92	4	47	64
2025-01	Rec	51	96	92	4	46	64
2024-11	Rec	50	96	92	4	39	64
2024-10	Ress	50	94	92	4	42	64
2024-09	Hyp	52	94	92	3	57	64
2024-07	Rec	58	91	92	3	92	64
2024-05	Rec	56	94	92	4	75	64
2024-04	Exp	58	94	92	4	87	64
2024-02	Exp	58	95	92	3	93	64
2023-11	Exp	60	99	92	2	97	64
2023-08	Rec	57	96	92	3	83	64
2023-06	Rec	57	86	92	2	92	64
2023-03	Exp	51	45	92	2	97	64
2023-01	Exp	49	42	92	2	89	64
2022-10	Rec	37	19	92	1	42	64
2022-08	Rec	38	24	92	2	41	64
2022-05	Rec	35	19	92	1	29	64
2022-04	Hyp	37	26	92	1	37	64
2022-03	Exp	41	33	92	2	50	64
2022-02	Rec	38	35	92	2	29	64
2021-12	Rec	50	61	92	3	74	65
2021-10	Exp	50	52	92	3	83	65
2021-08	Exp	53	56	92	3	99	65
2021-05	Exp	47	47	92	2	70	65
2021-04	Rec	49	49	92	2	83	65
2021-02	Rec	48	40	92	2	82	65
2021-01	Exp	47	40	92	2	81	65
2020-11	Exp	50	39	92	1	85	76
2020-10	Rec	48	30	92	1	86	76
2020-08	Rec	43	13	92	1	72	76
2020-06	Exp	43	4	92	0	80	76
2020-04	Exp	44	10	92	0	79	76
2020-03	Rec	48	14	92	0	99	76
2020-01	Rec	50	29	92	0	98	76
2019-12	Exp	54	55	92	1	99	70
2019-10	Exp	49	29	92	1	97	70
2019-07	Exp	50	32	92	1	99	70
2019-06	Rec	47	20	92	0	98	70
2019-04	Rec	50	36	92	0	95	70
2019-03	Exp	49	35	92	0	93	70
2019-01	Exp	51	56	92	0	83	70

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023