Rankings/Rochester, NY

Rochester, NY

NeutralTier 1CBSA 40380Compare

Risk Rank: #153 of 274Month: 2026-05Score change (12m):↓ -8

49score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Rochester's housing market shows average risk, ranking 153rd of 274 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring. Inventory accumulating faster than demand — the market is shifting toward buyers.

Rochester experienced a market correction from mid-2024 through mid-2024. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Inventory is elevated (+28% YoY) and days on market are up -17% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and permit growth, while permits per capita provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp94

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Permit Growthp81

YoY permit change

Employmentp62

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+28% YoY) and days on market are up -17% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↑

Active Listings YoY

+28.1%p78

Days on Market YoY

-17.2%p20

Months in status1

Data through May 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+2.3%p89

Months in status1

Data through May 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumBelow Avg

+0.8%p25

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthHigh Risk

+22.2%p81

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaLow Risk

1.72p14

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk

0.24p17

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentElevated

-0.2%p62

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk

-$163Kp94

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-3.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-38 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+199 bpsElevated

Stable for 9 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-5.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Elevated

YoY Permit Growth

+22.2%Above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Building is elevated but demand is cooling. Early warning of supply-demand imbalance — if liquidity continues to soften, this pipeline could become a problem.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorHealth Care 20.1%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Rochester's 5 counties show moderate divergence — Ontario County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Monroe County anchors the lower end.

Moderate11.2Limited data

5 of 5 counties scored

Rochester, NY shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Ontario County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permit growth), while Monroe County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Ontario CountyRisk Driver	69	Elevated	10.6%	50	100	50
Wayne County	62	Elevated	8.6%	0	75	75
Livingston County	44	Below Average	5.8%	75	50	0
Monroe CountyStabilizer	38	Below Average	71.2%	25	0	100
Orleans County<5%	38	Below Average	3.7%	100	25	25

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-12	Rec	60	86	77	17	68	94
2025-11	Exp	53	88	55	16	55	90
2025-09	Exp	52	89	55	16	43	90
2025-07	Rec	55	90	55	16	61	90
2025-05	Rec	57	99	55	20	64	90
2025-04	Exp	53	99	55	20	40	90
2025-02	Exp	49	84	55	14	36	90
2025-01	Rec	50	85	55	14	40	90
2024-11	Rec	55	94	55	14	59	90
2024-10	Exp	58	96	55	14	77	90
2024-08	Exp	57	93	55	13	75	90
2024-05	Ress	55	91	55	14	62	90
2024-04	Exp	56	91	55	14	69	90
2024-02	Exp	55	91	55	13	65	90
2023-11	Exp	56	94	55	9	70	90
2023-08	Exp	53	100	55	12	44	90
2023-06	Rec	55	96	55	10	62	90
2023-04	Rec	54	91	55	10	60	90
2023-02	Ress	55	72	55	8	90	90
2022-12	Ress	51	53	55	8	85	90
2022-11	Exp	51	53	55	8	85	90
2022-09	Rec	49	49	55	8	78	90
2022-07	Rec	43	32	55	8	59	90
2022-06	Exp	46	42	55	9	66	90
2022-04	Exp	48	40	55	9	81	90
2022-01	Exp	40	34	55	8	35	90
2021-12	Rec	40	27	55	5	54	87
2021-10	Rec	43	27	55	5	69	87
2021-09	Exp	48	51	55	6	73	87
2021-07	Exp	42	51	55	6	36	87
2021-04	Exp	44	68	55	5	34	87
2021-01	Rec	52	63	55	5	86	87
2020-11	Rec	54	80	55	5	86	80
2020-08	Rec	54	76	55	5	93	80
2020-05	Exp	47	39	55	5	88	80
2020-03	Exp	48	39	55	4	92	80
2020-02	Rec	50	49	55	4	94	80
2019-12	Rec	50	39	55	4	93	92
2019-11	Exp	49	34	55	4	93	92
2019-09	Exp	51	48	55	5	91	92
2019-06	Rec	48	40	55	5	78	92
2019-04	Rec	47	42	55	5	72	92
2019-01	Rec	49	49	55	4	81	92

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-05

Income2024

Employment2026-05

Migration2023