Rankings/Rochester, NY

Rochester, NY

NeutralTier 1CBSA 40380Compare

Risk Rank: #49 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +6

59score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Rochester experienced a market correction from mid-2024 through mid-2024. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 1 month·Previously: Expansion

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Rochester's housing market shows average risk, ranking 49th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by migration and price momentum. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Migration

p90 (highest risk decile)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Price Momentum

p87 (elevated risk)

12-month HPI change

Permit Growth

p77 (elevated risk)

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (-4% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

-4.4%p44

Days on Market YoY

+3.6%p55

Months in status19

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.2%p68

Months in status6

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum87

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth77

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita14

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability17

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment69

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration90

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+5.0%	p87
Permit Growth	+16.0%	p77
Permits/1K Pop	1.71	p14
Affordability	0.23	p17
Employment	-0.1%	p69
Net AGI Migration	-$170K	p90

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Elevated

YoY Permit Growth

+16.0%Above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Above-normal building activity with healthy demand. Balanced expansion — the market is absorbing new supply without stress.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY-4.4%

Days on Market YoY+3.6%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 19 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Rochester's counties diverge significantly — Wayne County (High Risk) contrasts sharply with Livingston County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High26.2

5 of 5 counties scored

Rochester, NY shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Wayne County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by price momentum), while Livingston County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Wayne CountyRisk Driver	83	High Risk	20.0%	100	75	75
Monroe County	75	Elevated	20.0%	75	50	100
Orleans County	50	Average	20.0%	50	100	0
Ontario County	25	Low Risk	20.0%	25	0	50
Livingston CountyStabilizer	17	Low Risk	20.0%	0	25	25

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Exp	53	88	55	16	55	90
2025-09	Exp	52	89	55	16	43	90
2025-07	Rec	55	90	55	16	61	90
2025-05	Rec	57	99	55	20	64	90
2025-04	Exp	53	99	55	20	40	90
2025-02	Exp	49	84	55	14	36	90
2025-01	Rec	50	85	55	14	40	90
2024-11	Rec	55	94	55	14	59	90
2024-10	Exp	58	96	55	14	77	90
2024-08	Exp	57	93	55	13	75	90
2024-05	Ress	55	91	55	14	62	90
2024-04	Exp	56	91	55	14	69	90
2024-02	Exp	55	91	55	13	65	90
2023-11	Exp	56	94	55	9	70	90
2023-08	Exp	53	100	55	12	44	90
2023-06	Rec	55	96	55	10	62	90
2023-04	Rec	54	91	55	10	60	90
2023-02	Ress	55	72	55	8	90	90
2022-12	Ress	51	53	55	8	85	90
2022-11	Exp	51	53	55	8	85	90
2022-09	Rec	49	49	55	8	78	90
2022-07	Rec	43	32	55	8	59	90
2022-06	Exp	46	42	55	9	66	90
2022-04	Exp	48	40	55	9	81	90
2022-01	Exp	40	34	55	8	35	90
2021-12	Rec	40	27	55	5	54	87
2021-10	Rec	43	27	55	5	69	87
2021-09	Exp	48	51	55	6	73	87
2021-07	Exp	42	51	55	6	36	87
2021-04	Exp	44	68	55	5	34	87
2021-01	Rec	52	63	55	5	86	87
2020-11	Rec	54	80	55	5	86	80
2020-08	Rec	54	76	55	5	93	80
2020-05	Exp	47	39	55	5	88	80
2020-03	Exp	48	39	55	4	92	80
2020-02	Rec	50	49	55	4	94	80
2019-12	Rec	50	39	55	4	93	92
2019-11	Exp	49	34	55	4	93	92
2019-09	Exp	51	48	55	5	91	92
2019-06	Rec	48	40	55	5	78	92
2019-04	Rec	47	42	55	5	72	92
2019-01	Rec	49	49	55	4	81	92

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022