Rankings/Rochester, MN

Rochester, MN

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 40340Compare

Risk Rank: #27 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):↑ +11

63score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Rochester's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 27th of 273 metros. The market recently entered Recession. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory. Deep correction with severe liquidity stress — significant risk remains.

Rochester experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025.

Inventory has surged +53% YoY with days on market up -2% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Demand contraction with rising inventory pressure

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permit growth and migration, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permit Growthp99

YoY permit change

Migrationp84

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Permits per Capitap82

Permits per 1,000 residents

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +53% YoY with days on market up -2% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↑

Active Listings YoY

+52.7%p91

Days on Market YoY

-1.8%p44

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.4%p70

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumBelow Avg

+1.7%p37

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthHigh Risk

+125.3%p99

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaHigh Risk

7.80p82

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk

0.24p12

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentElevated

+0.0%p64

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk

-$50Kp84

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Active correction with weak transactions but available credit. Buyers can borrow — they're choosing not to at current prices.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Surge

YoY Permit Growth

+125.3%Far above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant overbuilding into weak demand. This is the highest-risk metro combination — new supply is delivering into a market that is already struggling to absorb existing inventory.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Concentrated

Largest SectorGovernment 23.1%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Rochester's 4 counties show similar risk profiles — the metro-level score is broadly representative.

Low6.3Limited data

4 of 4 counties scored

Rochester, MN shows Low internal divergence — county-level differences are minor and the metro composite is broadly representative. Dodge County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permits per capita), while Fillmore County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Dodge CountyRisk Driver	58	Elevated	9.2%	67	33	33
Wabasha County	58	Elevated	9.4%	100	67	67
Olmsted County	50	Average	72.0%	33	0	100
Fillmore CountyStabilizer	33	Below Average	9.4%	0	100	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Hyp	56	18	98	11	52	84
2025-12	Exp	31	48	1	12	0	84
2025-10	Rec	54	82	78	13	0	79
2025-08	Rec	52	67	78	13	0	79
2025-05	Rec	44	22	78	13	0	79
2025-04	Ress	43	17	78	13	0	79
2025-02	Ress	48	42	78	13	0	79
2025-01	Exp	49	50	78	13	0	79
2024-12	Rec	45	29	78	12	0	79
2024-10	Rec	48	40	78	12	4	79
2024-09	Ress	54	60	78	14	23	79
2024-07	Ress	53	42	78	14	31	79
2024-06	Hyp	55	65	78	17	18	79
2024-04	Rec	55	53	78	17	32	79
2024-03	Exp	54	44	78	15	34	79
2024-01	Exp	62	74	78	15	54	79
2023-12	Hyp	58	55	78	15	51	79
2023-11	Exp	59	47	78	15	64	79
2023-09	Exp	59	48	78	16	59	79
2023-08	Rec	60	38	78	16	73	79
2023-06	Rec	57	39	78	18	56	79
2023-05	Hyp	58	30	78	18	69	79
2023-03	Ress	52	10	78	15	60	79
2023-01	Ress	58	14	78	15	86	79
2022-11	Exp	57	12	78	14	86	79
2022-10	Rec	58	11	78	14	92	79
2022-08	Rec	60	14	78	16	98	79
2022-06	Ress	62	26	78	18	97	79
2022-04	Exp	62	24	78	18	99	79
2022-03	Rec	60	14	78	17	97	79
2022-01	Rec	58	18	78	17	86	79
2021-12	Exp	58	27	78	16	72	85
2021-10	Exp	62	23	78	16	96	85
2021-07	Rec	58	28	78	16	67	85
2021-05	Rec	60	33	78	16	77	85
2021-04	Exp	62	36	78	16	87	85
2021-02	Exp	54	25	78	15	51	85
2021-01	Rec	55	25	78	15	54	85
2020-11	Rec	54	39	78	16	41	79
2020-08	Rec	58	64	78	18	37	79
2020-05	Rec	50	31	78	16	25	79
2020-02	Ress	48	18	78	16	27	79
2020-01	Exp	50	15	78	16	39	79
2019-11	Exp	49	20	78	16	35	72
2019-10	Rec	51	28	78	16	38	72
2019-08	Rec	52	25	78	16	47	72
2019-05	Hyp	56	53	78	17	43	72
2019-04	Exp	56	55	78	17	42	72
2019-03	Rec	60	72	78	19	45	72
2019-01	Rec	55	59	78	19	29	72

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023