Rankings/Rochester, MN

Rochester, MN

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 40340Compare

Risk Rank: #263 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -14

31score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Rochester's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 263rd of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Inventory is growing moderately (+14% YoY) with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Rochester experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +14% pace with homes taking -6% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

2 months in current phase·from Expansion

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and price momentum, while employment provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp82

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Price Momentump48

12-month HPI change

Permits per Capitap42

Permits per 1,000 residents

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +14% pace with homes taking -6% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY

+13.7%p63

Days on Market YoY

-5.6%p37

Months in status6

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-1.8%p37

Months in status22

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumNeutral

+3.0%p48

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk

-50.5%p1

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaNeutral

3.34p42

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk

0.23p12

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentLow Risk

+4.3%p0

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk

-$52Kp82

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-76 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-50.5%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Concentrated

Largest SectorGovernment 23.1%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Rochester's 4 counties show moderate divergence — Dodge County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Fillmore County anchors the lower end.

Moderate15.2Limited data

4 of 4 counties scored

Rochester, MN shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Dodge County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permit growth), while Fillmore County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Dodge CountyRisk Driver	67	Elevated	9.2%	67	100	33
Olmsted County	67	Elevated	72.0%	0	67	100
Wabasha County	50	Average	9.4%	100	33	67
Fillmore CountyStabilizer	16	Low Risk	9.4%	33	0	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Exp	54	79	78	13	0	79
2025-10	Rec	54	82	78	13	0	79
2025-08	Rec	52	67	78	13	0	79
2025-05	Rec	44	22	78	13	0	79
2025-04	Ress	43	17	78	13	0	79
2025-02	Ress	48	42	78	13	0	79
2025-01	Exp	49	50	78	13	0	79
2024-12	Rec	45	29	78	12	0	79
2024-10	Rec	48	40	78	12	4	79
2024-09	Ress	54	60	78	14	23	79
2024-07	Ress	53	42	78	14	31	79
2024-06	Hyp	55	65	78	17	18	79
2024-04	Rec	55	53	78	17	32	79
2024-03	Exp	54	44	78	15	34	79
2024-01	Exp	62	74	78	15	54	79
2023-12	Hyp	58	55	78	15	51	79
2023-11	Exp	59	47	78	15	64	79
2023-09	Exp	59	48	78	16	59	79
2023-08	Rec	60	38	78	16	73	79
2023-06	Rec	57	39	78	18	56	79
2023-05	Hyp	58	30	78	18	69	79
2023-03	Ress	52	10	78	15	60	79
2023-01	Ress	58	14	78	15	86	79
2022-11	Exp	57	12	78	14	86	79
2022-10	Rec	58	11	78	14	92	79
2022-08	Rec	60	14	78	16	98	79
2022-06	Ress	62	26	78	18	97	79
2022-04	Exp	62	24	78	18	99	79
2022-03	Rec	60	14	78	17	97	79
2022-01	Rec	58	18	78	17	86	79
2021-12	Exp	58	27	78	16	72	85
2021-10	Exp	62	23	78	16	96	85
2021-07	Rec	58	28	78	16	67	85
2021-05	Rec	60	33	78	16	77	85
2021-04	Exp	62	36	78	16	87	85
2021-02	Exp	54	25	78	15	51	85
2021-01	Rec	55	25	78	15	54	85
2020-11	Rec	54	39	78	16	41	79
2020-08	Rec	58	64	78	18	37	79
2020-05	Rec	50	31	78	16	25	79
2020-02	Ress	48	18	78	16	27	79
2020-01	Exp	50	15	78	16	39	79
2019-11	Exp	49	20	78	16	35	72
2019-10	Rec	51	28	78	16	38	72
2019-08	Rec	52	25	78	16	47	72
2019-05	Hyp	56	53	78	17	43	72
2019-04	Exp	56	55	78	17	42	72
2019-03	Rec	60	72	78	19	45	72
2019-01	Rec	55	59	78	19	29	72

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022