Rankings/Roanoke, VA

Roanoke, VA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 40220Compare

Risk Rank: #158 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -10

48score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Roanoke's housing market shows average risk, ranking 158th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recession. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory. Deep correction with severe liquidity stress — significant risk remains.

Roanoke experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025.

Inventory has surged +41% YoY with days on market up +17% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

2 months in current phase·from Recession

Demand contraction with rising inventory pressure

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by employment and price momentum, while permit growth provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Employmentp79

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Price Momentump71

12-month HPI change

Migrationp68

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +41% YoY with days on market up +17% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↓

Active Listings YoY

+40.5%p86

Days on Market YoY

+17.2%p78

Months in status11

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.1%p67

Months in status22

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumElevated

+4.1%p71

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk

-43.2%p1

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaLow Risk

1.87p18

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityNeutral

0.28p51

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentElevated

-0.3%p79

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationElevated

-$16Kp68

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Active correction with weak transactions but available credit. Buyers can borrow — they're choosing not to at current prices.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Internal Structure

Roanoke's 5 counties show moderate divergence — Salem city carries the most risk (Elevated) while Botetourt County anchors the lower end.

Moderate15.2

5 of 6 counties scored

Roanoke, VA shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Salem city contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permits per capita), while Botetourt County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Roanoke County	69	Elevated	31.3%	25	100	75
Salem cityRisk Driver	69	Elevated	8.3%	50	75	50
Craig CountyUnscored	50	Average	—	—	—	—
Roanoke city	50	Average	31.7%	75	25	100
Franklin County	38	Below Average	17.8%	100	0	25
Botetourt CountyStabilizer	25	Low Risk	11.0%	0	50	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Ress	64	45	93	46	83	74
2025-10	Hyp	66	53	93	47	88	74
2025-08	Hyp	64	51	93	47	75	74
2025-06	Ress	61	75	93	50	33	74
2025-04	Ress	69	79	93	50	75	74
2025-01	Rec	61	73	93	50	34	74
2024-12	Hyp	58	59	93	46	33	74
2024-11	Ress	58	66	93	46	30	74
2024-09	Ress	61	82	93	47	26	74
2024-08	Hyp	66	86	93	47	51	74
2024-06	Ress	64	81	93	45	51	74
2024-04	Ress	59	76	93	45	26	74
2024-03	Hyp	65	94	93	46	39	74
2024-01	Rec	68	95	93	46	58	74
2023-11	Ress	68	90	93	55	56	74
2023-09	Hyp	67	78	93	51	66	74
2023-08	Exp	64	77	93	51	49	74
2023-07	Rec	66	73	93	51	66	74
2023-05	Rec	66	75	93	51	63	74
2023-04	Hyp	65	76	93	51	54	74
2023-03	Ress	57	47	93	45	41	74
2023-01	Ress	60	58	93	45	50	74
2022-12	Hyp	59	67	93	41	38	74
2022-11	Exp	60	65	93	41	47	74
2022-10	Rec	64	64	93	41	71	74
2022-08	Rec	66	64	93	42	83	74
2022-07	Exp	62	60	93	42	62	74
2022-05	Exp	63	49	93	41	81	74
2022-02	Exp	62	26	93	38	97	74
2022-01	Rec	61	25	93	38	93	74
2021-11	Rec	59	28	93	41	90	63
2021-09	Exp	60	34	93	41	90	63
2021-07	Exp	60	35	93	41	88	63
2021-04	Rec	61	32	93	43	92	63
2021-02	Rec	57	58	93	44	41	63
2020-11	Exp	52	66	93	26	32	54
2020-09	Exp	53	66	93	27	35	54
2020-08	Rec	53	57	93	27	45	54
2020-06	Rec	52	41	93	26	60	54
2020-03	Rec	52	31	93	26	68	54
2020-01	Exp	56	49	93	26	74	54
2019-11	Exp	56	44	93	25	81	51
2019-08	Exp	54	66	93	26	45	51
2019-06	Rec	55	53	93	26	67	51
2019-04	Rec	49	33	93	26	50	51
2019-03	Exp	47	18	93	25	55	51
2019-01	Exp	50	23	93	25	70	51

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023