Rankings/Roanoke, VA

Roanoke, VA

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 40220Compare

Risk Rank: #40 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):— -3

61score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Roanoke's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 40th of 273 metros. The market recently entered Recession. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory. Deep correction with severe liquidity stress — significant risk remains.

Roanoke experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025.

Inventory has surged +26% YoY with days on market up +12% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Demand contraction with rising inventory pressure

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permit growth and migration, while permits per capita provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permit Growthp90

YoY permit change

Migrationp69

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Employmentp64

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +26% YoY with days on market up +12% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↑

Active Listings YoY

+26.4%p77

Days on Market YoY

+11.5%p70

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.9%p76

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumNeutral

+2.4%p51

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthHigh Risk

+44.9%p90

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaNeutral

3.75p46

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityNeutral

0.29p48

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentElevated

+0.0%p64

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationElevated

-$16Kp69

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Active correction with weak transactions but available credit. Buyers can borrow — they're choosing not to at current prices.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Internal Structure

Roanoke's counties diverge significantly — Roanoke city (High Risk) contrasts sharply with Salem city, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High24.3

6 of 6 counties scored

Roanoke, VA shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Roanoke city contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by permit growth), while Salem city anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Roanoke cityRisk Driver	88	High Risk	31.2%	50	100	100
Franklin County	60	Elevated	17.5%	100	60	40
Botetourt County	59	Elevated	10.8%	75	80	20
Craig County<5%	40	Below Average	1.5%	—	40	0
Roanoke County	36	Below Average	30.8%	25	20	80
Salem cityStabilizer	15	Low Risk	8.1%	0	0	60

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Hyp	60	78	46	51	80	68
2025-12	Ress	48	71	1	51	79	68
2025-10	Hyp	66	53	93	47	88	74
2025-08	Hyp	64	51	93	47	75	74
2025-06	Ress	61	75	93	50	33	74
2025-04	Ress	69	79	93	50	75	74
2025-01	Rec	61	73	93	50	34	74
2024-12	Hyp	58	59	93	46	33	74
2024-11	Ress	58	66	93	46	30	74
2024-09	Ress	61	82	93	47	26	74
2024-08	Hyp	66	86	93	47	51	74
2024-06	Ress	64	81	93	45	51	74
2024-04	Ress	59	76	93	45	26	74
2024-03	Hyp	65	94	93	46	39	74
2024-01	Rec	68	95	93	46	58	74
2023-11	Ress	68	90	93	55	56	74
2023-09	Hyp	67	78	93	51	66	74
2023-08	Exp	64	77	93	51	49	74
2023-07	Rec	66	73	93	51	66	74
2023-05	Rec	66	75	93	51	63	74
2023-04	Hyp	65	76	93	51	54	74
2023-03	Ress	57	47	93	45	41	74
2023-01	Ress	60	58	93	45	50	74
2022-12	Hyp	59	67	93	41	38	74
2022-11	Exp	60	65	93	41	47	74
2022-10	Rec	64	64	93	41	71	74
2022-08	Rec	66	64	93	42	83	74
2022-07	Exp	62	60	93	42	62	74
2022-05	Exp	63	49	93	41	81	74
2022-02	Exp	62	26	93	38	97	74
2022-01	Rec	61	25	93	38	93	74
2021-11	Rec	59	28	93	41	90	63
2021-09	Exp	60	34	93	41	90	63
2021-07	Exp	60	35	93	41	88	63
2021-04	Rec	61	32	93	43	92	63
2021-02	Rec	57	58	93	44	41	63
2020-11	Exp	52	66	93	26	32	54
2020-09	Exp	53	66	93	27	35	54
2020-08	Rec	53	57	93	27	45	54
2020-06	Rec	52	41	93	26	60	54
2020-03	Rec	52	31	93	26	68	54
2020-01	Exp	56	49	93	26	74	54
2019-11	Exp	56	44	93	25	81	51
2019-08	Exp	54	66	93	26	45	51
2019-06	Rec	55	53	93	26	67	51
2019-04	Rec	49	33	93	26	50	51
2019-03	Exp	47	18	93	25	55	51
2019-01	Exp	50	23	93	25	70	51

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023