Roanoke, VA
Cycle Phase
Roanoke experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025.
Demand contraction with rising inventory pressure
Roanoke's housing market shows average risk, ranking 217th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recession. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory.
Executive Summary
Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by employment and migration. The market is in Recession phase. Liquidity is stress and valuation is balanced.
Top Risk Drivers (This Month)
Market Signals
Inventory has surged +41% YoY with days on market up +17% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.
Liquidity
Valuation
Factor Details
Factor Breakdown
12-month HPI change — higher = overheating
YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure
Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk
Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened
12-month employment change (risk inverted)
Net AGI migration (risk inverted)
Underlying Values
| Metric | Value | Pctile |
|---|---|---|
| Price Momentum | +1.5% | p35 |
| Permit Growth | -43.2% | p1 |
| Permits/1K Pop | 1.87 | p18 |
| Affordability | 0.27 | p48 |
| Employment | -0.3% | p80 |
| Net AGI Migration | -$28K | p74 |
National ContextDoes not affect score
Credit Conditions
Credit Regime
Active correction with weak transactions but available credit. Buyers can borrow — they're choosing not to at current prices.
Supply Pipeline
Supply Regime
Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.
Local SignalsDoes not affect score
Liquidity
Liquidity
Internal Structure
Roanoke's counties diverge significantly — Roanoke city (Elevated) contrasts sharply with Botetourt County, making the metro average potentially misleading.
Roanoke, VA shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Roanoke city contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by affordability), while Botetourt County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).
| County | Score ▼ |
|---|---|
Roanoke County | 67 |
Roanoke cityRisk Driver | 67 |
Salem city | 58 |
Craig CountyUnscored | 50 |
Franklin County | 42 |
Botetourt CountyStabilizer | 17 |
Score History
| Month | Score |
|---|---|
| 2025-11 | 64 |
| 2025-10 | 66 |
| 2025-08 | 64 |
| 2025-06 | 61 |
| 2025-04 | 69 |
| 2025-01 | 61 |
| 2024-12 | 58 |
| 2024-11 | 58 |
| 2024-09 | 61 |
| 2024-08 | 66 |
| 2024-06 | 64 |
| 2024-04 | 59 |
| 2024-03 | 65 |
| 2024-01 | 68 |
| 2023-11 | 68 |
| 2023-09 | 67 |
| 2023-08 | 64 |
| 2023-07 | 66 |
| 2023-05 | 66 |
| 2023-04 | 65 |
| 2023-03 | 57 |
| 2023-01 | 60 |
| 2022-12 | 59 |
| 2022-11 | 60 |
| 2022-10 | 64 |
| 2022-08 | 66 |
| 2022-07 | 62 |
| 2022-05 | 63 |
| 2022-02 | 62 |
| 2022-01 | 61 |
| 2021-11 | 59 |
| 2021-09 | 60 |
| 2021-07 | 60 |
| 2021-04 | 61 |
| 2021-02 | 57 |
| 2020-11 | 52 |
| 2020-09 | 53 |
| 2020-08 | 53 |
| 2020-06 | 52 |
| 2020-03 | 52 |
| 2020-01 | 56 |
| 2019-11 | 56 |
| 2019-08 | 54 |
| 2019-06 | 55 |
| 2019-04 | 49 |
| 2019-03 | 47 |
| 2019-01 | 50 |