Rankings/Richmond, VA

Richmond, VA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 40060Compare

Risk Rank: #87 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +13

55score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Richmond experienced a market correction from mid-2024 through late 2024. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 2 months·Previously: Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Richmond's housing market shows average risk, ranking 87th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory is growing moderately (+11% YoY) with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by permits per capita and price momentum. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Permits per Capita

p76 (elevated risk)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Price Momentum

p73 (moderate)

12-month HPI change

Permit Growth

p60 (moderate)

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +11% pace with homes taking +9% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+11.2%p60

Days on Market YoY

+9.3%p66

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-0.7%p54

Months in status19

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum73

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth60

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita76

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability53

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment48

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration19

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+3.8%	p73
Permit Growth	+5.0%	p60
Permits/1K Pop	6.79	p76
Affordability	0.28	p53
Employment	+0.3%	p48
Net AGI Migration	+$214K	p19

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+5.0%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY+11.2%

Days on Market YoY+9.3%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 1 monthData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Richmond's counties diverge significantly — Colonial Heights city (High Risk) contrasts sharply with Sussex County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High18.9

17 of 17 counties scored

Richmond, VA shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Colonial Heights city contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by permit growth), while Sussex County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Colonial Heights cityRisk Driver	83	High Risk	5.9%	81	88	81
Hopewell city	71	Elevated	5.9%	62	94	56
Goochland County	71	Elevated	5.9%	69	69	75
Richmond city	69	Elevated	5.9%	50	56	100
Petersburg city	65	Elevated	5.9%	25	100	69
Powhatan County	60	Elevated	5.9%	94	25	62
Amelia County	58	Elevated	5.9%	75	62	38
Dinwiddie County	54	Average	5.9%	88	50	25
King and Queen County	48	Average	5.9%	100	44	0
New Kent County	46	Average	5.9%	44	75	19
Chesterfield County	44	Below Average	5.9%	31	12	88
Hanover County	40	Below Average	5.9%	38	31	50
Prince George County	40	Below Average	5.9%	56	19	44
Henrico County	35	Below Average	5.9%	12	0	94
Charles City County	33	Below Average	5.9%	6	81	12
King William County	29	Below Average	5.9%	19	38	31
Sussex CountyStabilizer	4	Low Risk	5.9%	0	6	6

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	48	71	24	52	53	19
2025-10	Hyp	46	68	24	52	39	19
2025-08	Hyp	40	63	24	52	8	19
2025-06	Rec	40	54	24	51	22	19
2025-04	Hyp	40	47	24	51	29	19
2025-02	Hyp	40	41	24	47	35	19
2025-01	Rec	40	46	24	47	34	19
2024-11	Rec	38	57	24	47	12	19
2024-08	Hyp	43	69	24	50	26	19
2024-07	Ress	42	72	24	50	18	19
2024-05	Ress	46	82	24	51	31	19
2024-04	Hyp	46	79	24	50	34	19
2024-03	Exp	46	73	24	48	37	19
2024-02	Rec	48	72	24	48	51	19
2023-12	Rec	44	73	24	34	38	19
2023-11	Exp	44	75	24	34	42	19
2023-09	Exp	45	76	24	32	44	19
2023-08	Rec	45	75	24	32	47	19
2023-06	Rec	41	71	24	31	28	19
2023-05	Hyp	40	69	24	31	26	19
2023-03	Hyp	40	69	24	32	26	19
2023-02	Ress	40	72	24	32	23	19
2022-12	Ress	40	62	24	27	38	19
2022-11	Hyp	39	62	24	27	31	19
2022-10	Exp	40	62	24	27	32	19
2022-08	Exp	39	56	24	27	36	19
2022-05	Exp	40	53	24	27	45	19
2022-02	Rec	38	36	24	25	48	19
2021-12	Rec	40	32	24	30	63	19
2021-10	Exp	40	35	24	30	58	19
2021-08	Exp	40	41	24	31	56	19
2021-05	Rec	43	42	24	32	68	19
2021-03	Rec	42	42	24	31	61	19
2021-02	Exp	42	45	24	31	58	19
2020-12	Exp	40	49	24	36	50	8
2020-11	Rec	41	47	24	37	57	8
2020-09	Rec	40	43	24	38	54	8
2020-06	Exp	40	36	24	37	64	8
2020-04	Exp	34	33	24	37	29	8
2020-03	Rec	37	32	24	37	47	8
2020-01	Rec	38	47	24	37	40	8
2019-10	Exp	43	44	24	38	59	19
2019-08	Exp	47	54	24	39	74	19
2019-07	Rec	46	56	24	39	64	19
2019-05	Rec	44	54	24	40	55	19
2019-04	Exp	43	51	24	40	51	19
2019-02	Exp	41	39	24	38	51	19
2019-01	Exp	41	41	24	38	51	19

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022