Rankings/Richmond, VA

Richmond, VA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 40060Compare

Risk Rank: #97 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +11

53score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Richmond's housing market shows average risk, ranking 97th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory is growing moderately (+11% YoY) with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Richmond experienced a market correction from mid-2024 through late 2024. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +11% pace with homes taking +9% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

2 months in current phase·from Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permits per capita and price momentum, while migration provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permits per Capitap75

Permits per 1,000 residents

Price Momentump70

12-month HPI change

Permit Growthp60

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +11% pace with homes taking +9% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+11.2%p60

Days on Market YoY

+9.3%p66

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-1.0%p50

Months in status19

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumElevated

+4.1%p70

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthNeutral

+5.0%p60

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaElevated

6.79p75

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityNeutral

0.28p49

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentNeutral

+0.3%p49

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationLow Risk

+$182Kp16

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+5.0%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Internal Structure

Richmond's 17 counties show moderate divergence — Richmond city carries the most risk (Elevated) while Hanover County anchors the lower end.

Moderate11.9Limited data

17 of 17 counties scored

Richmond, VA shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Richmond city contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by affordability), while Hanover County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Goochland County<5%	77	High Risk	2.0%	69	69	75
Richmond cityRisk Driver	74	Elevated	17.1%	50	56	100
Colonial Heights city<5%	62	Elevated	1.4%	81	88	81
Petersburg city<5%	60	Elevated	2.5%	25	100	69
New Kent County<5%	60	Elevated	1.9%	44	75	19
Hopewell city<5%	56	Elevated	1.7%	62	94	56
Amelia County<5%	56	Elevated	1.0%	75	62	38
Powhatan County<5%	53	Average	2.4%	94	25	62
King and Queen County<5%	52	Average	0.5%	100	44	0
Chesterfield County	52	Average	28.2%	31	12	88
Dinwiddie County<5%	47	Average	2.1%	88	50	25
Henrico County	44	Below Average	25.0%	12	0	94
King William County<5%	42	Below Average	1.4%	19	38	31
Hanover CountyStabilizer	39	Below Average	8.4%	38	31	50
Charles City County<5%	39	Below Average	0.5%	6	81	12
Prince George County<5%	31	Below Average	3.2%	56	19	44
Sussex County<5%	8	Low Risk	0.8%	0	6	6

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	48	71	24	52	53	19
2025-10	Hyp	46	68	24	52	39	19
2025-08	Hyp	40	63	24	52	8	19
2025-06	Rec	40	54	24	51	22	19
2025-04	Hyp	40	47	24	51	29	19
2025-02	Hyp	40	41	24	47	35	19
2025-01	Rec	40	46	24	47	34	19
2024-11	Rec	38	57	24	47	12	19
2024-08	Hyp	43	69	24	50	26	19
2024-07	Ress	42	72	24	50	18	19
2024-05	Ress	46	82	24	51	31	19
2024-04	Hyp	46	79	24	50	34	19
2024-03	Exp	46	73	24	48	37	19
2024-02	Rec	48	72	24	48	51	19
2023-12	Rec	44	73	24	34	38	19
2023-11	Exp	44	75	24	34	42	19
2023-09	Exp	45	76	24	32	44	19
2023-08	Rec	45	75	24	32	47	19
2023-06	Rec	41	71	24	31	28	19
2023-05	Hyp	40	69	24	31	26	19
2023-03	Hyp	40	69	24	32	26	19
2023-02	Ress	40	72	24	32	23	19
2022-12	Ress	40	62	24	27	38	19
2022-11	Hyp	39	62	24	27	31	19
2022-10	Exp	40	62	24	27	32	19
2022-08	Exp	39	56	24	27	36	19
2022-05	Exp	40	53	24	27	45	19
2022-02	Rec	38	36	24	25	48	19
2021-12	Rec	40	32	24	30	63	19
2021-10	Exp	40	35	24	30	58	19
2021-08	Exp	40	41	24	31	56	19
2021-05	Rec	43	42	24	32	68	19
2021-03	Rec	42	42	24	31	61	19
2021-02	Exp	42	45	24	31	58	19
2020-12	Exp	40	49	24	36	50	8
2020-11	Rec	41	47	24	37	57	8
2020-09	Rec	40	43	24	38	54	8
2020-06	Exp	40	36	24	37	64	8
2020-04	Exp	34	33	24	37	29	8
2020-03	Rec	37	32	24	37	47	8
2020-01	Rec	38	47	24	37	40	8
2019-10	Exp	43	44	24	38	59	19
2019-08	Exp	47	54	24	39	74	19
2019-07	Rec	46	56	24	39	64	19
2019-05	Rec	44	54	24	40	55	19
2019-04	Exp	43	51	24	40	51	19
2019-02	Exp	41	39	24	38	51	19
2019-01	Exp	41	41	24	38	51	19

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023