Rankings/Richmond, VA

Richmond, VA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 40060Compare

Risk Rank: #60 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):↑ +18

58score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Richmond's housing market shows average risk, ranking 60th of 273 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring. Inventory accumulating faster than demand — the market is shifting toward buyers.

Richmond experienced a market correction from mid-2024 through late 2024. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Inventory is elevated (+21% YoY) and days on market are up -4% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by employment and permits per capita, while migration provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Employmentp90

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permits per Capitap79

Permits per 1,000 residents

Permit Growthp57

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+21% YoY) and days on market are up -4% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↑

Active Listings YoY

+20.9%p71

Days on Market YoY

-4.3%p38

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.0%p64

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumNeutral

+2.5%p55

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthNeutral

+4.0%p57

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaElevated

7.31p79

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityNeutral

0.30p51

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentHigh Risk

-0.8%p90

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationLow Risk

+$182Kp16

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+4.0%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Permit activity is typical but demand is softening. Price pressure is forming on the demand side — this is not a supply problem.

Internal Structure

Richmond's 17 counties show moderate divergence — Henrico County carries the most risk (High Risk) while Chesterfield County anchors the lower end.

Moderate11.6Limited data

17 of 17 counties scored

Richmond, VA shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Henrico County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by affordability), while Chesterfield County anchors the lower end (Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Henrico CountyRisk Driver	82	High Risk	25.0%	69	88	94
King William County<5%	70	Elevated	1.4%	75	94	31
Richmond city	66	Elevated	17.1%	12	62	100
Prince George County<5%	62	Elevated	3.2%	81	100	44
Powhatan County<5%	58	Elevated	2.4%	50	69	62
Goochland County<5%	56	Elevated	2.0%	0	50	75
Hanover County	56	Elevated	8.4%	44	75	50
Chesterfield CountyStabilizer	55	Average	28.2%	19	44	88
Sussex County<5%	54	Average	0.8%	100	81	6
King and Queen County<5%	52	Average	0.5%	88	56	0
Colonial Heights city<5%	47	Average	1.4%	62	38	81
Charles City County<5%	42	Below Average	0.5%	94	25	12
Amelia County<5%	38	Below Average	1.0%	38	31	38
New Kent County<5%	36	Below Average	1.9%	25	6	19
Petersburg city<5%	33	Below Average	2.5%	31	12	69
Hopewell city<5%	23	Low Risk	1.7%	6	19	56
Dinwiddie County<5%	20	Low Risk	2.1%	56	0	25

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Hyp	52	58	24	52	88	16
2026-05	Exp	51	59	23	52	84	16
2025-12	Rec	53	70	60	49	49	16
2025-10	Hyp	46	68	24	52	39	19
2025-08	Hyp	40	63	24	52	8	19
2025-06	Rec	40	54	24	51	22	19
2025-04	Hyp	40	47	24	51	29	19
2025-02	Hyp	40	41	24	47	35	19
2025-01	Rec	40	46	24	47	34	19
2024-11	Rec	38	57	24	47	12	19
2024-08	Hyp	43	69	24	50	26	19
2024-07	Ress	42	72	24	50	18	19
2024-05	Ress	46	82	24	51	31	19
2024-04	Hyp	46	79	24	50	34	19
2024-03	Exp	46	73	24	48	37	19
2024-02	Rec	48	72	24	48	51	19
2023-12	Rec	44	73	24	34	38	19
2023-11	Exp	44	75	24	34	42	19
2023-09	Exp	45	76	24	32	44	19
2023-08	Rec	45	75	24	32	47	19
2023-06	Rec	41	71	24	31	28	19
2023-05	Hyp	40	69	24	31	26	19
2023-03	Hyp	40	69	24	32	26	19
2023-02	Ress	40	72	24	32	23	19
2022-12	Ress	40	62	24	27	38	19
2022-11	Hyp	39	62	24	27	31	19
2022-10	Exp	40	62	24	27	32	19
2022-08	Exp	39	56	24	27	36	19
2022-05	Exp	40	53	24	27	45	19
2022-02	Rec	38	36	24	25	48	19
2021-12	Rec	40	32	24	30	63	19
2021-10	Exp	40	35	24	30	58	19
2021-08	Exp	40	41	24	31	56	19
2021-05	Rec	43	42	24	32	68	19
2021-03	Rec	42	42	24	31	61	19
2021-02	Exp	42	45	24	31	58	19
2020-12	Exp	40	49	24	36	50	8
2020-11	Rec	41	47	24	37	57	8
2020-09	Rec	40	43	24	38	54	8
2020-06	Exp	40	36	24	37	64	8
2020-04	Exp	34	33	24	37	29	8
2020-03	Rec	37	32	24	37	47	8
2020-01	Rec	38	47	24	37	40	8
2019-10	Exp	43	44	24	38	59	19
2019-08	Exp	47	54	24	39	74	19
2019-07	Rec	46	56	24	39	64	19
2019-05	Rec	44	54	24	40	55	19
2019-04	Exp	43	51	24	40	51	19
2019-02	Exp	41	39	24	38	51	19
2019-01	Exp	41	41	24	38	51	19

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023