Reno, NV

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 39900Compare

Risk Rank: #239 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -15

38score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Reno's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 239th of 287 metros. The market has been in Recovery for 4 months. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Reno experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is roughly flat (-4% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

4 months in current phase·from Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by employment and permits per capita, while permit growth provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Employmentp79

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permits per Capitap65

Permits per 1,000 residents

Affordabilityp37

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (-4% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

-4.5%p44

Days on Market YoY

+5.4%p59

Months in status4

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced↓

Rent vs. Price Growth

+3.7%p95

Months in status20

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumBelow Avg

+1.7%p29

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk

-28.6%p9

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaElevated

5.56p65

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityBelow Avg

0.26p37

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentElevated

-0.3%p79

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationLow Risk

+$319Kp10

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-28.6%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorAccommodation & Food 17.9%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Reno's counties diverge significantly — Washoe County (High Risk) contrasts sharply with Lyon County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High23.6Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Reno, NV shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Washoe County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by permit growth), while Lyon County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Washoe CountyRisk Driver	88	High Risk	88.3%	50	100	100
Lyon CountyStabilizer	38	Below Average	11.0%	0	50	50
Storey County<5%	25	Low Risk	0.7%	100	0	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	53	48	50	41	82	17
2025-09	Rec	55	53	50	41	88	17
2025-08	Hyp	53	55	50	41	74	17
2025-06	Hyp	46	52	50	40	35	17
2025-05	Ress	48	48	50	40	50	17
2025-03	Ress	46	51	50	42	39	17
2025-01	Hyp	43	48	50	42	19	17
2024-11	Hyp	52	47	50	42	73	17
2024-10	Rec	51	49	50	43	68	17
2024-09	Ress	49	31	50	41	77	17
2024-07	Ress	50	29	50	41	83	17
2024-06	Hyp	51	40	50	43	77	17
2024-05	Exp	50	43	50	43	68	17
2024-04	Hyp	52	47	50	43	73	17
2024-03	Exp	47	40	50	43	50	17
2024-01	Exp	44	27	50	43	49	17
2023-10	Exp	42	17	50	47	42	17
2023-08	Rec	44	12	50	48	58	17
2023-06	Rec	43	4	50	48	60	17
2023-04	Hyp	44	1	50	48	65	17
2023-02	Ress	45	4	50	50	69	17
2022-12	Ress	38	3	50	53	27	17
2022-11	Hyp	39	5	50	53	27	17
2022-09	Hyp	37	6	50	56	12	17
2022-07	Ress	40	13	50	56	24	17
2022-05	Ress	50	63	50	65	25	17
2022-04	Rec	51	68	50	65	27	17
2022-03	Ress	51	71	50	66	24	17
2022-02	Rec	52	75	50	66	22	17
2022-01	Ress	55	77	50	66	40	17
2021-11	Ress	52	90	50	62	25	5
2021-10	Hyp	53	92	50	62	31	5
2021-09	Exp	52	92	50	61	27	5
2021-08	Rec	52	92	50	61	27	5
2021-06	Rec	50	92	50	59	13	5
2021-05	Exp	48	91	50	59	4	5
2021-03	Exp	48	86	50	54	14	5
2020-12	Rec	47	66	50	51	28	5
2020-10	Rec	46	62	50	51	26	5
2020-07	Rec	44	27	50	50	49	5
2020-05	Exp	51	43	50	49	78	5
2020-03	Exp	40	34	50	49	24	5
2020-02	Rec	41	36	50	49	26	5
2019-12	Rec	41	30	50	49	32	4
2019-09	Rec	46	46	50	50	45	4
2019-07	Ress	46	59	50	50	30	4
2019-05	Hyp	44	62	50	49	21	4
2019-03	Ress	46	82	50	50	11	4
2019-01	Ress	46	89	50	50	4	4

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023