Reno, NV

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 39900Compare

Risk Rank: #226 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):↓ -13

40score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Reno's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 226th of 273 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Inventory is growing moderately (-23% YoY) with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Reno experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is declining (-23% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by price momentum and permits per capita, while migration provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Price Momentump68

12-month HPI change

Permits per Capitap67

Permits per 1,000 residents

Affordabilityp42

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory is declining (-23% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

-22.6%p24

Days on Market YoY

-13.6%p24

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+4.1%p96

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumElevated

+3.1%p68

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-16.1%p21

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaElevated

5.67p67

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityNeutral

0.29p42

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentBelow Avg

+0.8%p31

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationLow Risk

+$319Kp10

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-16.1%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorAccommodation & Food 17.9%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Rec	35	64	18	42	10	10
2025-12	Rec	38	29	9	37	79	10
2025-09	Rec	55	53	50	41	88	17
2025-08	Hyp	53	55	50	41	74	17
2025-06	Hyp	46	52	50	40	35	17
2025-05	Ress	48	48	50	40	50	17
2025-03	Ress	46	51	50	42	39	17
2025-01	Hyp	43	48	50	42	19	17
2024-11	Hyp	52	47	50	42	73	17
2024-10	Rec	51	49	50	43	68	17
2024-09	Ress	49	31	50	41	77	17
2024-07	Ress	50	29	50	41	83	17
2024-06	Hyp	51	40	50	43	77	17
2024-05	Exp	50	43	50	43	68	17
2024-04	Hyp	52	47	50	43	73	17
2024-03	Exp	47	40	50	43	50	17
2024-01	Exp	44	27	50	43	49	17
2023-10	Exp	42	17	50	47	42	17
2023-08	Rec	44	12	50	48	58	17
2023-06	Rec	43	4	50	48	60	17
2023-04	Hyp	44	1	50	48	65	17
2023-02	Ress	45	4	50	50	69	17
2022-12	Ress	38	3	50	53	27	17
2022-11	Hyp	39	5	50	53	27	17
2022-09	Hyp	37	6	50	56	12	17
2022-07	Ress	40	13	50	56	24	17
2022-05	Ress	50	63	50	65	25	17
2022-04	Rec	51	68	50	65	27	17
2022-03	Ress	51	71	50	66	24	17
2022-02	Rec	52	75	50	66	22	17
2022-01	Ress	55	77	50	66	40	17
2021-11	Ress	52	90	50	62	25	5
2021-10	Hyp	53	92	50	62	31	5
2021-09	Exp	52	92	50	61	27	5
2021-08	Rec	52	92	50	61	27	5
2021-06	Rec	50	92	50	59	13	5
2021-05	Exp	48	91	50	59	4	5
2021-03	Exp	48	86	50	54	14	5
2020-12	Rec	47	66	50	51	28	5
2020-10	Rec	46	62	50	51	26	5
2020-07	Rec	44	27	50	50	49	5
2020-05	Exp	51	43	50	49	78	5
2020-03	Exp	40	34	50	49	24	5
2020-02	Rec	41	36	50	49	26	5
2019-12	Rec	41	30	50	49	32	4
2019-09	Rec	46	46	50	50	45	4
2019-07	Ress	46	59	50	50	30	4
2019-05	Hyp	44	62	50	49	21	4
2019-03	Ress	46	82	50	50	11	4
2019-01	Ress	46	89	50	50	4	4

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023