Reno, NV

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 39900Compare

Risk Rank: #257 of 274Month: 2026-05Score change (12m):↓ -15

33score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Reno's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 257th of 274 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory is growing moderately (-20% YoY) with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Reno experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is declining (-20% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by price momentum and permits per capita, while employment provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Price Momentump64

12-month HPI change

Permits per Capitap63

Permits per 1,000 residents

Affordabilityp42

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory is declining (-20% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

-20.5%p26

Days on Market YoY

-2.2%p43

Months in status1

Data through May 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+3.9%p95

Months in status1

Data through May 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumElevated

+2.1%p64

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk

-27.1%p12

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaElevated

5.37p63

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityNeutral

0.28p42

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentLow Risk

+1.3%p9

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationLow Risk

+$319Kp10

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-3.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-38 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+199 bpsElevated

Stable for 9 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-5.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-27.1%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorAccommodation & Food 17.9%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-12	Rec	38	29	9	37	79	10
2025-10	Rec	52	47	50	41	75	17
2025-08	Hyp	53	55	50	41	74	17
2025-06	Hyp	46	52	50	40	35	17
2025-05	Ress	48	48	50	40	50	17
2025-03	Ress	46	51	50	42	39	17
2025-01	Hyp	43	48	50	42	19	17
2024-11	Hyp	52	47	50	42	73	17
2024-10	Rec	51	49	50	43	68	17
2024-09	Ress	49	31	50	41	77	17
2024-07	Ress	50	29	50	41	83	17
2024-06	Hyp	51	40	50	43	77	17
2024-05	Exp	50	43	50	43	68	17
2024-04	Hyp	52	47	50	43	73	17
2024-03	Exp	47	40	50	43	50	17
2024-01	Exp	44	27	50	43	49	17
2023-10	Exp	42	17	50	47	42	17
2023-08	Rec	44	12	50	48	58	17
2023-06	Rec	43	4	50	48	60	17
2023-04	Hyp	44	1	50	48	65	17
2023-02	Ress	45	4	50	50	69	17
2022-12	Ress	38	3	50	53	27	17
2022-11	Hyp	39	5	50	53	27	17
2022-09	Hyp	37	6	50	56	12	17
2022-07	Ress	40	13	50	56	24	17
2022-05	Ress	50	63	50	65	25	17
2022-04	Rec	51	68	50	65	27	17
2022-03	Ress	51	71	50	66	24	17
2022-02	Rec	52	75	50	66	22	17
2022-01	Ress	55	77	50	66	40	17
2021-11	Ress	52	90	50	62	25	5
2021-10	Hyp	53	92	50	62	31	5
2021-09	Exp	52	92	50	61	27	5
2021-08	Rec	52	92	50	61	27	5
2021-06	Rec	50	92	50	59	13	5
2021-05	Exp	48	91	50	59	4	5
2021-03	Exp	48	86	50	54	14	5
2020-12	Rec	47	66	50	51	28	5
2020-10	Rec	46	62	50	51	26	5
2020-07	Rec	44	27	50	50	49	5
2020-05	Exp	51	43	50	49	78	5
2020-03	Exp	40	34	50	49	24	5
2020-02	Rec	41	36	50	49	26	5
2019-12	Rec	41	30	50	49	32	4
2019-09	Rec	46	46	50	50	45	4
2019-07	Ress	46	59	50	50	30	4
2019-05	Hyp	44	62	50	49	21	4
2019-03	Ress	46	82	50	50	11	4
2019-01	Ress	46	89	50	50	4	4

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-05

Income2024

Employment2026-05

Migration2023