Rankings/Reno, NV

Reno, NV

NeutralTier 1CBSA 39900Compare

Risk Rank: #203 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -9

44score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Reno experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 4 months·Previously: Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Reno's housing market shows average risk, ranking 203rd of 287 metros. The market has been in Recovery for 4 months. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by employment and permits per capita. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Employment

p80 (elevated risk)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permits per Capita

p66 (moderate)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Price Momentum

p50 (moderate)

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (-4% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

-4.5%p44

Days on Market YoY

+5.4%p59

Months in status4

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+3.1%p93

Months in status20

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum50

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth9

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita66

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability42

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment80

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration17

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+2.4%	p50
Permit Growth	-28.6%	p9
Permits/1K Pop	5.56	p66
Affordability	0.27	p42
Employment	-0.3%	p80
Net AGI Migration	+$225K	p17

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-28.6%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY-4.5%

Days on Market YoY+5.4%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 4 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Reno's counties diverge significantly — Washoe County (High Risk) contrasts sharply with Lyon County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High23.6Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Reno, NV shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Washoe County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by permit growth), while Lyon County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Washoe CountyRisk Driver	83	High Risk	33.3%	50	100	100
Lyon CountyStabilizer	33	Below Average	33.3%	0	50	50
Storey County	33	Below Average	33.3%	100	0	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	53	48	50	41	82	17
2025-09	Rec	55	53	50	41	88	17
2025-08	Hyp	53	55	50	41	74	17
2025-06	Hyp	46	52	50	40	35	17
2025-05	Ress	48	48	50	40	50	17
2025-03	Ress	46	51	50	42	39	17
2025-01	Hyp	43	48	50	42	19	17
2024-11	Hyp	52	47	50	42	73	17
2024-10	Rec	51	49	50	43	68	17
2024-09	Ress	49	31	50	41	77	17
2024-07	Ress	50	29	50	41	83	17
2024-06	Hyp	51	40	50	43	77	17
2024-05	Exp	50	43	50	43	68	17
2024-04	Hyp	52	47	50	43	73	17
2024-03	Exp	47	40	50	43	50	17
2024-01	Exp	44	27	50	43	49	17
2023-10	Exp	42	17	50	47	42	17
2023-08	Rec	44	12	50	48	58	17
2023-06	Rec	43	4	50	48	60	17
2023-04	Hyp	44	1	50	48	65	17
2023-02	Ress	45	4	50	50	69	17
2022-12	Ress	38	3	50	53	27	17
2022-11	Hyp	39	5	50	53	27	17
2022-09	Hyp	37	6	50	56	12	17
2022-07	Ress	40	13	50	56	24	17
2022-05	Ress	50	63	50	65	25	17
2022-04	Rec	51	68	50	65	27	17
2022-03	Ress	51	71	50	66	24	17
2022-02	Rec	52	75	50	66	22	17
2022-01	Ress	55	77	50	66	40	17
2021-11	Ress	52	90	50	62	25	5
2021-10	Hyp	53	92	50	62	31	5
2021-09	Exp	52	92	50	61	27	5
2021-08	Rec	52	92	50	61	27	5
2021-06	Rec	50	92	50	59	13	5
2021-05	Exp	48	91	50	59	4	5
2021-03	Exp	48	86	50	54	14	5
2020-12	Rec	47	66	50	51	28	5
2020-10	Rec	46	62	50	51	26	5
2020-07	Rec	44	27	50	50	49	5
2020-05	Exp	51	43	50	49	78	5
2020-03	Exp	40	34	50	49	24	5
2020-02	Rec	41	36	50	49	26	5
2019-12	Rec	41	30	50	49	32	4
2019-09	Rec	46	46	50	50	45	4
2019-07	Ress	46	59	50	50	30	4
2019-05	Hyp	44	62	50	49	21	4
2019-03	Ress	46	82	50	50	11	4
2019-01	Ress	46	89	50	50	4	4

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022