Rankings/Redding, CA

Redding, CA

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 39820Compare

Risk Rank: #268 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):↓ -17

26score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Redding's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 268th of 273 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Inventory is growing moderately (-15% YoY) with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Redding experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is declining (-15% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by price momentum and affordability, while employment provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Price Momentump79

12-month HPI change

Affordabilityp44

Mortgage payment / income

Migrationp31

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is declining (-15% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

-14.9%p31

Days on Market YoY

-7.9%p32

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.6%p72

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumElevated

+3.6%p79

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk

-52.5%p1

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaLow Risk

0.83p3

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityNeutral

0.29p44

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentLow Risk

+3.2%p1

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationBelow Avg

+$51Kp31

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-52.5%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorHealth Care 22.8%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Rec	21	36	1	44	12	30
2025-12	Rec	37	8	79	42	49	30
2025-10	Hyp	37	8	73	40	58	36
2025-09	Ress	42	5	73	40	88	36
2025-07	Ress	42	5	73	40	90	36
2025-06	Hyp	36	41	73	54	7	36
2025-04	Ress	37	36	73	54	14	36
2025-02	Ress	30	11	73	48	4	36
2024-11	Hyp	34	26	73	52	12	36
2024-09	Exp	43	24	73	56	63	36
2024-07	Exp	38	7	73	55	50	36
2024-05	Hyp	42	5	73	55	74	36
2024-04	Exp	36	5	73	55	38	36
2024-02	Exp	40	5	73	57	61	36
2023-12	Rec	29	3	73	28	27	36
2023-10	Rec	29	4	73	28	23	36
2023-09	Exp	32	17	73	36	24	36
2023-07	Exp	32	12	73	36	28	36
2023-05	Rec	36	15	73	39	42	36
2023-03	Rec	45	14	73	42	95	36
2023-02	Ress	39	13	73	42	64	36
2022-12	Hyp	42	6	73	53	75	36
2022-10	Hyp	44	3	73	53	92	36
2022-07	Hyp	41	6	73	59	65	36
2022-06	Ress	46	10	73	61	90	36
2022-04	Ress	47	14	73	61	90	36
2022-03	Exp	46	26	73	63	68	36
2022-01	Exp	45	28	73	63	60	36
2021-12	Rec	55	52	73	75	83	38
2021-10	Rec	57	56	73	75	93	38
2021-09	Exp	59	65	73	77	91	38
2021-07	Exp	61	70	73	77	99	38
2021-04	Rec	53	65	73	76	60	38
2021-02	Rec	51	78	73	77	30	38
2020-12	Exp	46	76	73	57	28	37
2020-10	Exp	42	61	73	57	16	37
2020-09	Rec	37	37	73	56	12	37
2020-07	Rec	37	39	73	56	8	37
2020-05	Exp	44	68	73	58	17	37
2020-03	Exp	36	33	73	54	9	37
2020-02	Rec	34	33	73	54	2	37
2019-12	Rec	40	58	73	55	9	35
2019-09	Exp	42	73	73	56	9	35
2019-07	Exp	47	75	73	56	34	35
2019-06	Rec	44	74	73	54	21	35
2019-04	Rec	45	79	73	54	21	35
2019-03	Exp	48	80	73	54	36	35
2019-01	Exp	53	73	73	54	75	35

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023