Rankings/Redding, CA

Redding, CA

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 39820Compare

Risk Rank: #238 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— +4

38score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Redding's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 238th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Redding experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is roughly flat (-4% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

2 months in current phase·from Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permit growth and employment, while price momentum provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permit Growthp79

YoY permit change

Employmentp49

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Affordabilityp42

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (-4% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

-3.6%p45

Days on Market YoY

+16.9%p77

Months in status2

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+6.3%p99

Months in status44

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumLow Risk

+0.1%p8

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthElevated

+18.2%p79

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaLow Risk

1.58p12

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityNeutral

0.27p42

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentNeutral

+0.3%p49

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationBelow Avg

+$48Kp37

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-76 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Elevated

YoY Permit Growth

+18.2%Above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Above-normal building activity with healthy demand. Balanced expansion — the market is absorbing new supply without stress.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorHealth Care 22.8%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	33	8	73	40	31	36
2025-10	Hyp	37	8	73	40	58	36
2025-09	Ress	42	5	73	40	88	36
2025-07	Ress	42	5	73	40	90	36
2025-06	Hyp	36	41	73	54	7	36
2025-04	Ress	37	36	73	54	14	36
2025-02	Ress	30	11	73	48	4	36
2024-11	Hyp	34	26	73	52	12	36
2024-09	Exp	43	24	73	56	63	36
2024-07	Exp	38	7	73	55	50	36
2024-05	Hyp	42	5	73	55	74	36
2024-04	Exp	36	5	73	55	38	36
2024-02	Exp	40	5	73	57	61	36
2023-12	Rec	29	3	73	28	27	36
2023-10	Rec	29	4	73	28	23	36
2023-09	Exp	32	17	73	36	24	36
2023-07	Exp	32	12	73	36	28	36
2023-05	Rec	36	15	73	39	42	36
2023-03	Rec	45	14	73	42	95	36
2023-02	Ress	39	13	73	42	64	36
2022-12	Hyp	42	6	73	53	75	36
2022-10	Hyp	44	3	73	53	92	36
2022-07	Hyp	41	6	73	59	65	36
2022-06	Ress	46	10	73	61	90	36
2022-04	Ress	47	14	73	61	90	36
2022-03	Exp	46	26	73	63	68	36
2022-01	Exp	45	28	73	63	60	36
2021-12	Rec	55	52	73	75	83	38
2021-10	Rec	57	56	73	75	93	38
2021-09	Exp	59	65	73	77	91	38
2021-07	Exp	61	70	73	77	99	38
2021-04	Rec	53	65	73	76	60	38
2021-02	Rec	51	78	73	77	30	38
2020-12	Exp	46	76	73	57	28	37
2020-10	Exp	42	61	73	57	16	37
2020-09	Rec	37	37	73	56	12	37
2020-07	Rec	37	39	73	56	8	37
2020-05	Exp	44	68	73	58	17	37
2020-03	Exp	36	33	73	54	9	37
2020-02	Rec	34	33	73	54	2	37
2019-12	Rec	40	58	73	55	9	35
2019-09	Exp	42	73	73	56	9	35
2019-07	Exp	47	75	73	56	34	35
2019-06	Rec	44	74	73	54	21	35
2019-04	Rec	45	79	73	54	21	35
2019-03	Exp	48	80	73	54	36	35
2019-01	Exp	53	73	73	54	75	35

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022