Rankings/Redding, CA

Redding, CA

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 39820Compare

Risk Rank: #252 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— +4

38score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Redding experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 2 months·Previously: Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Redding's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 252nd of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Below Average, driven primarily by permit growth and employment. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Permit Growth

p79 (elevated risk)

YoY permit change

Employment

p49 (below average risk)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Affordability

p41 (below average risk)

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (-4% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

-3.6%p45

Days on Market YoY

+16.9%p77

Months in status2

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+7.0%p99

Months in status44

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum9

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth79

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita11

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability41

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment49

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration36

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	-0.6%	p9
Permit Growth	+18.2%	p79
Permits/1K Pop	1.58	p11
Affordability	0.27	p41
Employment	+0.3%	p49
Net AGI Migration	+$48K	p36

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Elevated

YoY Permit Growth

+18.2%Above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Above-normal building activity with healthy demand. Balanced expansion — the market is absorbing new supply without stress.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY-3.6%

Days on Market YoY+16.9%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 2 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	33	8	73	40	31	36
2025-10	Hyp	37	8	73	40	58	36
2025-09	Ress	42	5	73	40	88	36
2025-07	Ress	42	5	73	40	90	36
2025-06	Hyp	36	41	73	54	7	36
2025-04	Ress	37	36	73	54	14	36
2025-02	Ress	30	11	73	48	4	36
2024-11	Hyp	34	26	73	52	12	36
2024-09	Exp	43	24	73	56	63	36
2024-07	Exp	38	7	73	55	50	36
2024-05	Hyp	42	5	73	55	74	36
2024-04	Exp	36	5	73	55	38	36
2024-02	Exp	40	5	73	57	61	36
2023-12	Rec	29	3	73	28	27	36
2023-10	Rec	29	4	73	28	23	36
2023-09	Exp	32	17	73	36	24	36
2023-07	Exp	32	12	73	36	28	36
2023-05	Rec	36	15	73	39	42	36
2023-03	Rec	45	14	73	42	95	36
2023-02	Ress	39	13	73	42	64	36
2022-12	Hyp	42	6	73	53	75	36
2022-10	Hyp	44	3	73	53	92	36
2022-07	Hyp	41	6	73	59	65	36
2022-06	Ress	46	10	73	61	90	36
2022-04	Ress	47	14	73	61	90	36
2022-03	Exp	46	26	73	63	68	36
2022-01	Exp	45	28	73	63	60	36
2021-12	Rec	55	52	73	75	83	38
2021-10	Rec	57	56	73	75	93	38
2021-09	Exp	59	65	73	77	91	38
2021-07	Exp	61	70	73	77	99	38
2021-04	Rec	53	65	73	76	60	38
2021-02	Rec	51	78	73	77	30	38
2020-12	Exp	46	76	73	57	28	37
2020-10	Exp	42	61	73	57	16	37
2020-09	Rec	37	37	73	56	12	37
2020-07	Rec	37	39	73	56	8	37
2020-05	Exp	44	68	73	58	17	37
2020-03	Exp	36	33	73	54	9	37
2020-02	Rec	34	33	73	54	2	37
2019-12	Rec	40	58	73	55	9	35
2019-09	Exp	42	73	73	56	9	35
2019-07	Exp	47	75	73	56	34	35
2019-06	Rec	44	74	73	54	21	35
2019-04	Rec	45	79	73	54	21	35
2019-03	Exp	48	80	73	54	36	35
2019-01	Exp	53	73	73	54	75	35

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022