Rankings/Rapid City, SD

Rapid City, SD

NeutralTier 1CBSA 39660Compare

Risk Rank: #234 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -6

41score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Rapid City experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through late 2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Hypersupply for 4 months·Previously: Hypersupply

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Rapid City's housing market shows average risk, ranking 234th of 287 metros. The market has been in Hypersupply for 4 months. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by affordability and permits per capita. The market is in Hypersupply phase. Liquidity is stress and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Affordability

p94 (highest risk decile)

Mortgage payment / income

Permits per Capita

p72 (moderate)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Price Momentum

p39 (below average risk)

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +23% YoY with days on market up +14% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↓

Active Listings YoY

+23.3%p73

Days on Market YoY

+13.5%p73

Months in status8

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.5%p72

Months in status6

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum39

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth3

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita72

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability94

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment6

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration31

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+1.9%	p39
Permit Growth	-37.2%	p3
Permits/1K Pop	6.37	p72
Affordability	0.36	p94
Employment	+1.9%	p6
Net AGI Migration	+$67K	p31

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-37.2%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Both supply and demand are in contraction. The market is in full retreat — builders have stopped and buyers have pulled back.

Liquidity

Stress↓

Active Listings YoY+23.3%

Days on Market YoY+13.5%

AssessmentSignificant supply buildup

Stress for 8 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Rapid City's 3 counties show moderate divergence — Pennington County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Custer County anchors the lower end.

Moderate13.9Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Rapid City, SD shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Pennington County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by affordability), while Custer County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Pennington CountyRisk Driver	67	Elevated	33.3%	50	50	100
Meade County	50	Average	33.3%	0	100	50
Custer CountyStabilizer	33	Below Average	33.3%	100	0	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	54	58	43	94	8	31
2025-09	Hyp	58	71	43	94	19	31
2025-08	Ress	69	66	43	94	91	31
2025-06	Ress	69	81	43	94	73	31
2025-04	Hyp	57	72	43	94	9	31
2025-03	Rec	58	81	43	95	5	31
2025-02	Hyp	56	75	43	95	3	31
2025-01	Rec	56	71	43	95	6	31
2024-12	Hyp	47	18	43	92	6	31
2024-11	Ress	46	17	43	92	3	31
2024-09	Ress	52	30	43	93	26	31
2024-08	Rec	57	37	43	93	47	31
2024-07	Hyp	59	41	43	93	54	31
2024-05	Hyp	59	53	43	94	43	31
2024-04	Ress	56	55	43	94	23	31
2024-02	Ress	60	52	43	94	47	31
2023-11	Rec	56	53	43	91	28	31
2023-10	Ress	55	50	43	91	23	31
2023-09	Hyp	58	46	43	90	45	31
2023-07	Ress	62	60	43	90	56	31
2023-05	Ress	61	54	43	90	55	31
2023-04	Rec	60	47	43	90	58	31
2023-02	Hyp	58	44	43	89	52	31
2022-12	Ress	63	55	43	95	62	31
2022-10	Ress	63	72	43	95	47	31
2022-07	Ress	68	72	43	94	78	31
2022-06	Hyp	64	74	43	94	54	31
2022-04	Ress	67	71	43	94	71	31
2022-02	Ress	66	91	43	96	46	31
2022-01	Rec	66	92	43	96	41	31
2021-12	Exp	65	88	43	93	40	38
2021-10	Exp	66	85	43	93	45	38
2021-07	Exp	62	91	43	92	19	38
2021-04	Exp	63	92	43	95	20	38
2021-01	Exp	56	56	43	92	15	38
2020-12	Rec	57	62	43	95	13	38
2020-10	Rec	58	69	43	95	12	38
2020-07	Rec	50	17	43	93	22	38
2020-04	Rec	57	41	43	95	33	38
2020-02	Exp	63	79	43	95	31	38
2019-12	Exp	62	59	43	95	60	28
2019-11	Rec	59	47	43	95	49	28
2019-09	Rec	57	34	43	96	53	28
2019-08	Exp	64	36	43	96	88	28
2019-06	Exp	66	52	43	96	90	28
2019-03	Exp	62	30	43	95	83	28
2019-01	Exp	62	29	43	95	85	28

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022