Rankings/Rapid City, SD

Rapid City, SD

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 39660Compare

Risk Rank: #239 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -9

38score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Rapid City's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 239th of 287 metros. The market has been in Hypersupply for 4 months. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory. Significant oversupply — conditions increasingly favor buyers over sellers.

Rapid City experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through late 2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Inventory has surged +23% YoY with days on market up +14% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

4 months in current phase·from Hypersupply

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by affordability and permits per capita, while permit growth provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Affordabilityp94

Mortgage payment / income

Permits per Capitap71

Permits per 1,000 residents

Migrationp42

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +23% YoY with days on market up +14% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↓

Active Listings YoY

+23.3%p73

Days on Market YoY

+13.5%p73

Months in status8

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+1.9%p87

Months in status6

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumLow Risk

+0.4%p10

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk

-37.2%p3

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaElevated

6.37p71

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityHigh Risk

0.36p94

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentLow Risk

+1.9%p6

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationNeutral

+$22Kp42

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-37.2%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Both supply and demand are in contraction. The market is in full retreat — builders have stopped and buyers have pulled back.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Concentrated

Largest SectorHealth Care 23.1%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Rapid City's 3 counties show moderate divergence — Pennington County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Meade County anchors the lower end.

Moderate9.7Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Rapid City, SD shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Pennington County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by affordability), while Meade County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Pennington CountyRisk Driver	62	Elevated	74.2%	50	50	100
Custer County	50	Average	5.8%	100	0	0
Meade CountyStabilizer	38	Below Average	20.0%	0	100	50

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	54	58	43	94	8	31
2025-09	Hyp	58	71	43	94	19	31
2025-08	Ress	69	66	43	94	91	31
2025-06	Ress	69	81	43	94	73	31
2025-04	Hyp	57	72	43	94	9	31
2025-03	Rec	58	81	43	95	5	31
2025-02	Hyp	56	75	43	95	3	31
2025-01	Rec	56	71	43	95	6	31
2024-12	Hyp	47	18	43	92	6	31
2024-11	Ress	46	17	43	92	3	31
2024-09	Ress	52	30	43	93	26	31
2024-08	Rec	57	37	43	93	47	31
2024-07	Hyp	59	41	43	93	54	31
2024-05	Hyp	59	53	43	94	43	31
2024-04	Ress	56	55	43	94	23	31
2024-02	Ress	60	52	43	94	47	31
2023-11	Rec	56	53	43	91	28	31
2023-10	Ress	55	50	43	91	23	31
2023-09	Hyp	58	46	43	90	45	31
2023-07	Ress	62	60	43	90	56	31
2023-05	Ress	61	54	43	90	55	31
2023-04	Rec	60	47	43	90	58	31
2023-02	Hyp	58	44	43	89	52	31
2022-12	Ress	63	55	43	95	62	31
2022-10	Ress	63	72	43	95	47	31
2022-07	Ress	68	72	43	94	78	31
2022-06	Hyp	64	74	43	94	54	31
2022-04	Ress	67	71	43	94	71	31
2022-02	Ress	66	91	43	96	46	31
2022-01	Rec	66	92	43	96	41	31
2021-12	Exp	65	88	43	93	40	38
2021-10	Exp	66	85	43	93	45	38
2021-07	Exp	62	91	43	92	19	38
2021-04	Exp	63	92	43	95	20	38
2021-01	Exp	56	56	43	92	15	38
2020-12	Rec	57	62	43	95	13	38
2020-10	Rec	58	69	43	95	12	38
2020-07	Rec	50	17	43	93	22	38
2020-04	Rec	57	41	43	95	33	38
2020-02	Exp	63	79	43	95	31	38
2019-12	Exp	62	59	43	95	60	28
2019-11	Rec	59	47	43	95	49	28
2019-09	Rec	57	34	43	96	53	28
2019-08	Exp	64	36	43	96	88	28
2019-06	Exp	66	52	43	96	90	28
2019-03	Exp	62	30	43	95	83	28
2019-01	Exp	62	29	43	95	85	28

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023