Rankings/Rapid City, SD

Rapid City, SD

NeutralTier 1CBSA 39660Compare

Risk Rank: #106 of 274Month: 2026-06Score change (12m):↓ -16

53score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Rapid City's housing market shows average risk, ranking 106th of 274 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Rapid City experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through late 2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is roughly flat (+0% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

2 months in current phase·from Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by affordability and permits per capita, while permit growth provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Affordabilityp95

Mortgage payment / income

Permits per Capitap76

Permits per 1,000 residents

Employmentp64

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (+0% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+0.2%p49

Days on Market YoY

+18.6%p80

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+2.5%p90

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumBelow Avg

+0.8%p27

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk

-26.1%p12

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaElevated

6.85p76

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityHigh Risk

0.38p95

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentElevated

+0.1%p64

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationNeutral

+$22Kp42

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

N/ANormal

Rate Change (YoY)

-5 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+194 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.1 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-26.1%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Builders are pulling back but demand remains healthy. A supply constraint could form — fewer new units entering a market that is still absorbing well.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Concentrated

Largest SectorHealth Care 23.1%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Rapid City's 3 counties show similar risk profiles — the metro-level score is broadly representative.

Low6.9Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Rapid City, SD shows Low internal divergence — county-level differences are minor and the metro composite is broadly representative. Custer County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permit growth), while Pennington County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Custer CountyRisk Driver	62	Elevated	5.8%	50	100	0
Meade County	50	Average	20.0%	100	50	50
Pennington CountyStabilizer	38	Below Average	74.2%	0	0	100

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-05	Rec	45	23	15	95	17	42
2025-12	Hyp	38	10	3	94	6	42
2025-10	Hyp	57	75	43	94	7	31
2025-08	Ress	69	66	43	94	91	31
2025-06	Ress	69	81	43	94	73	31
2025-04	Hyp	57	72	43	94	9	31
2025-03	Rec	58	81	43	95	5	31
2025-02	Hyp	56	75	43	95	3	31
2025-01	Rec	56	71	43	95	6	31
2024-12	Hyp	47	18	43	92	6	31
2024-11	Ress	46	17	43	92	3	31
2024-09	Ress	52	30	43	93	26	31
2024-08	Rec	57	37	43	93	47	31
2024-07	Hyp	59	41	43	93	54	31
2024-05	Hyp	59	53	43	94	43	31
2024-04	Ress	56	55	43	94	23	31
2024-02	Ress	60	52	43	94	47	31
2023-11	Rec	56	53	43	91	28	31
2023-10	Ress	55	50	43	91	23	31
2023-09	Hyp	58	46	43	90	45	31
2023-07	Ress	62	60	43	90	56	31
2023-05	Ress	61	54	43	90	55	31
2023-04	Rec	60	47	43	90	58	31
2023-02	Hyp	58	44	43	89	52	31
2022-12	Ress	63	55	43	95	62	31
2022-10	Ress	63	72	43	95	47	31
2022-07	Ress	68	72	43	94	78	31
2022-06	Hyp	64	74	43	94	54	31
2022-04	Ress	67	71	43	94	71	31
2022-02	Ress	66	91	43	96	46	31
2022-01	Rec	66	92	43	96	41	31
2021-12	Exp	65	88	43	93	40	38
2021-10	Exp	66	85	43	93	45	38
2021-07	Exp	62	91	43	92	19	38
2021-04	Exp	63	92	43	95	20	38
2021-01	Exp	56	56	43	92	15	38
2020-12	Rec	57	62	43	95	13	38
2020-10	Rec	58	69	43	95	12	38
2020-07	Rec	50	17	43	93	22	38
2020-04	Rec	57	41	43	95	33	38
2020-02	Exp	63	79	43	95	31	38
2019-12	Exp	62	59	43	95	60	28
2019-11	Rec	59	47	43	95	49	28
2019-09	Rec	57	34	43	96	53	28
2019-08	Exp	64	36	43	96	88	28
2019-06	Exp	66	52	43	96	90	28
2019-03	Exp	62	30	43	95	83	28
2019-01	Exp	62	29	43	95	85	28

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-06

Income2024

Employment2026-06

Migration2023