Rankings/Raleigh-Cary, NC

Raleigh-Cary, NC

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 39580Compare

Risk Rank: #276 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— -1

32score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Raleigh experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 1 month·Previously: Hypersupply

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Raleigh's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 276th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring.

Executive Summary

Risk is Below Average, driven primarily by permits per capita and permit growth. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is watch and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Permits per Capita

p95 (highest risk decile)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Permit Growth

p41 (below average risk)

YoY permit change

Price Momentum

p29 (below average risk)

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+27% YoY) and days on market are up +3% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↓

Active Listings YoY

+26.7%p76

Days on Market YoY

+2.9%p54

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-0.9%p51

Months in status11

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum29

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth41

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita95

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability7

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment14

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration8

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+1.1%	p29
Permit Growth	-7.4%	p41
Permits/1K Pop	11.89	p95
Affordability	0.21	p7
Employment	+1.3%	p14
Net AGI Migration	+$607K	p8

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Early-stage recovery with lingering transaction weakness. Credit is available but buyer activity hasn't fully returned yet.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-7.4%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Both sides are decelerating. Broad market slowdown — builders and buyers are both pulling back simultaneously.

Liquidity

Watch↓

Active Listings YoY+26.7%

Days on Market YoY+2.9%

AssessmentInventory building

Watch for 1 monthData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Raleigh's counties diverge significantly — Wake County (Elevated) contrasts sharply with Franklin County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High23.6Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Raleigh, NC shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Wake County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by price momentum), while Franklin County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Johnston County	67	Elevated	33.3%	50	100	50
Wake CountyRisk Driver	67	Elevated	33.3%	100	0	100
Franklin CountyStabilizer	17	Low Risk	33.3%	0	50	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	32	36	33	6	13	8
2025-09	Hyp	32	39	33	6	12	8
2025-06	Hyp	31	31	33	7	15	8
2025-05	Ress	31	27	33	7	19	8
2025-03	Ress	34	51	33	8	13	8
2025-01	Hyp	35	46	33	8	22	8
2024-11	Hyp	30	23	33	8	14	8
2024-08	Ress	31	31	33	8	10	8
2024-06	Ress	34	46	33	9	15	8
2024-05	Hyp	30	35	33	9	4	8
2024-03	Exp	31	34	33	9	10	8
2024-01	Exp	32	42	33	9	8	8
2023-10	Rec	34	44	33	12	10	8
2023-08	Rec	31	25	33	10	18	8
2023-06	Hyp	32	31	33	14	14	8
2023-04	Hyp	34	32	33	14	20	8
2023-03	Ress	33	34	33	14	14	8
2023-01	Ress	35	55	33	14	6	8
2022-10	Ress	39	77	33	13	9	8
2022-07	Ress	42	94	33	16	7	8
2022-04	Exp	44	96	33	15	16	8
2022-03	Rec	43	95	33	13	14	8
2022-01	Rec	45	95	33	12	27	8
2021-12	Exp	43	91	32	11	24	7
2021-10	Exp	40	87	32	11	12	7
2021-07	Exp	37	76	32	8	4	7
2021-05	Rec	35	63	32	5	11	7
2021-03	Rec	29	28	32	4	10	7
2020-12	Rec	31	38	32	4	9	9
2020-09	Rec	34	47	32	5	15	9
2020-06	Exp	36	55	32	4	24	9
2020-04	Exp	35	49	32	4	20	9
2020-03	Rec	32	43	32	4	8	9
2020-01	Rec	31	35	32	4	10	9
2019-10	Rec	36	60	32	5	17	8
2019-09	Exp	34	59	32	4	8	8
2019-07	Exp	35	57	32	4	17	8
2019-06	Rec	38	64	32	4	23	8
2019-04	Rec	38	65	32	4	27	8
2019-01	Hyp	39	82	32	5	15	8

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022