Rankings/Raleigh-Cary, NC

Raleigh-Cary, NC

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 39580Compare

Risk Rank: #266 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— -4

29score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Raleigh's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 266th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring. Recovery underway but inventory still elevated — watch for follow-through.

Raleigh experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is elevated (+27% YoY) and days on market are up +3% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase·from Hypersupply

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permits per capita and permit growth, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permits per Capitap95

Permits per 1,000 residents

Permit Growthp41

YoY permit change

Employmentp15

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+27% YoY) and days on market are up +3% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↓

Active Listings YoY

+26.7%p76

Days on Market YoY

+2.9%p54

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.0%p65

Months in status11

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumLow Risk

+0.3%p9

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthNeutral

-7.4%p41

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaHigh Risk

11.89p95

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk

0.21p6

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentLow Risk

+1.3%p15

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationLow Risk

+$607Kp7

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Early-stage recovery with lingering transaction weakness. Credit is available but buyer activity hasn't fully returned yet.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-76 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-7.4%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Both sides are decelerating. Broad market slowdown — builders and buyers are both pulling back simultaneously.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Diversified

Largest SectorGovernment 16%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Raleigh's 3 counties show moderate divergence — Wake County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Franklin County anchors the lower end.

Moderate13.5Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Raleigh, NC shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Wake County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by price momentum), while Franklin County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Wake CountyRisk Driver	75	Elevated	79.3%	100	0	100
Johnston County	50	Average	15.8%	50	100	50
Franklin CountyStabilizer	25	Low Risk	5.0%	0	50	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	32	36	33	6	13	8
2025-09	Hyp	32	39	33	6	12	8
2025-06	Hyp	31	31	33	7	15	8
2025-05	Ress	31	27	33	7	19	8
2025-03	Ress	34	51	33	8	13	8
2025-01	Hyp	35	46	33	8	22	8
2024-11	Hyp	30	23	33	8	14	8
2024-08	Ress	31	31	33	8	10	8
2024-06	Ress	34	46	33	9	15	8
2024-05	Hyp	30	35	33	9	4	8
2024-03	Exp	31	34	33	9	10	8
2024-01	Exp	32	42	33	9	8	8
2023-10	Rec	34	44	33	12	10	8
2023-08	Rec	31	25	33	10	18	8
2023-06	Hyp	32	31	33	14	14	8
2023-04	Hyp	34	32	33	14	20	8
2023-03	Ress	33	34	33	14	14	8
2023-01	Ress	35	55	33	14	6	8
2022-10	Ress	39	77	33	13	9	8
2022-07	Ress	42	94	33	16	7	8
2022-04	Exp	44	96	33	15	16	8
2022-03	Rec	43	95	33	13	14	8
2022-01	Rec	45	95	33	12	27	8
2021-12	Exp	43	91	32	11	24	7
2021-10	Exp	40	87	32	11	12	7
2021-07	Exp	37	76	32	8	4	7
2021-05	Rec	35	63	32	5	11	7
2021-03	Rec	29	28	32	4	10	7
2020-12	Rec	31	38	32	4	9	9
2020-09	Rec	34	47	32	5	15	9
2020-06	Exp	36	55	32	4	24	9
2020-04	Exp	35	49	32	4	20	9
2020-03	Rec	32	43	32	4	8	9
2020-01	Rec	31	35	32	4	10	9
2019-10	Rec	36	60	32	5	17	8
2019-09	Exp	34	59	32	4	8	8
2019-07	Exp	35	57	32	4	17	8
2019-06	Rec	38	64	32	4	23	8
2019-04	Rec	38	65	32	4	27	8
2019-01	Hyp	39	82	32	5	15	8

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022