Rankings/Racine-Mount Pleasant, WI

Racine-Mount Pleasant, WI

NeutralTier 1CBSA 39540Compare

Risk Rank: #94 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +12

54score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Racine experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through mid-2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Expansion for 5 months·Previously: Expansion

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Racine's housing market shows average risk, ranking 94th of 287 metros. The market has been in Expansion for 5 months. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by employment and price momentum. The market is in Expansion phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Employment

p99 (highest risk decile)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Price Momentum

p78 (elevated risk)

12-month HPI change

Permit Growth

p52 (moderate)

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (-4% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY

-3.7%p45

Days on Market YoY

-6.4%p35

Months in status8

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.5%p72

Months in status3

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum78

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth52

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita28

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability24

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment99

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration43

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+4.0%	p78
Permit Growth	-1.1%	p52
Permits/1K Pop	2.37	p28
Affordability	0.24	p24
Employment	-1.6%	p99
Net AGI Migration	+$27K	p43

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-1.1%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Builders are pulling back but demand remains healthy. A supply constraint could form — fewer new units entering a market that is still absorbing well.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY-3.7%

Days on Market YoY-6.4%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 8 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Exp	42	87	3	23	90	42
2025-09	Exp	44	94	3	23	93	42
2025-07	Rec	44	94	3	23	93	42
2025-05	Rec	46	96	3	25	99	42
2025-04	Ress	45	94	3	25	99	42
2025-03	Hyp	44	93	3	22	98	42
2025-02	Rec	44	93	3	22	99	42
2024-12	Rec	42	86	3	19	94	42
2024-11	Exp	42	83	3	19	98	42
2024-09	Exp	38	67	3	18	90	42
2024-08	Rec	35	57	3	18	84	42
2024-06	Rec	36	77	3	20	65	42
2024-03	Exp	28	52	3	17	44	42
2024-01	Exp	26	62	3	17	27	42
2023-10	Exp	36	84	3	16	65	42
2023-08	Rec	37	93	3	18	58	42
2023-06	Rec	34	84	3	17	50	42
2023-03	Exp	34	63	3	17	70	42
2023-01	Exp	31	46	3	17	71	42
2022-11	Rec	28	27	3	15	74	42
2022-09	Rec	30	25	3	14	85	42
2022-08	Exp	30	24	3	14	89	42
2022-06	Exp	30	21	3	14	92	42
2022-03	Rec	30	38	3	17	69	42
2022-01	Rec	32	37	3	17	85	42
2021-10	Exp	28	19	2	12	76	53
2021-08	Exp	28	22	2	12	73	53
2021-05	Exp	26	22	2	12	61	53
2021-04	Rec	26	22	2	12	59	53
2021-02	Rec	24	30	2	12	42	53
2020-11	Rec	29	60	2	21	38	43
2020-08	Rec	27	35	2	21	51	43
2020-05	Rec	27	27	2	21	60	43
2020-03	Exp	30	14	2	19	94	43
2020-01	Exp	33	30	2	19	96	43
2019-10	Rec	32	28	2	20	96	40
2019-08	Rec	39	74	2	21	90	40
2019-07	Hyp	40	75	2	21	93	40
2019-06	Exp	39	73	2	22	90	40
2019-04	Exp	36	79	2	22	64	40
2019-01	Exp	40	88	2	20	80	40

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022