Rankings/Racine-Mount Pleasant, WI

Racine-Mount Pleasant, WI

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 39540Compare

Risk Rank: #27 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):↑ +19

63score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Racine's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 27th of 273 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Racine experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through mid-2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +7% pace with homes taking +3% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by price momentum and permit growth, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Price Momentump97

12-month HPI change

Permit Growthp88

YoY permit change

Employmentp84

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +7% pace with homes taking +3% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY

+7.0%p56

Days on Market YoY

+3.2%p55

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Valuation

Balanced↓

Rent vs. Price Growth

-0.5%p55

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumHigh Risk

+6.2%p97

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthHigh Risk

+36.0%p88

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaNeutral

3.44p42

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityBelow Avg

0.27p31

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentHigh Risk

-0.6%p84

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationBelow Avg

+$39Kp37

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Elevated

YoY Permit Growth

+36.0%Above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Above-normal building activity with healthy demand. Balanced expansion — the market is absorbing new supply without stress.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorManufacturing 24.2%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Exp	53	86	67	27	64	37
2025-12	Exp	54	86	51	26	99	37
2025-09	Exp	44	94	3	23	93	42
2025-07	Rec	44	94	3	23	93	42
2025-05	Rec	46	96	3	25	99	42
2025-04	Ress	45	94	3	25	99	42
2025-03	Hyp	44	93	3	22	98	42
2025-02	Rec	44	93	3	22	99	42
2024-12	Rec	42	86	3	19	94	42
2024-11	Exp	42	83	3	19	98	42
2024-09	Exp	38	67	3	18	90	42
2024-08	Rec	35	57	3	18	84	42
2024-06	Rec	36	77	3	20	65	42
2024-03	Exp	28	52	3	17	44	42
2024-01	Exp	26	62	3	17	27	42
2023-10	Exp	36	84	3	16	65	42
2023-08	Rec	37	93	3	18	58	42
2023-06	Rec	34	84	3	17	50	42
2023-03	Exp	34	63	3	17	70	42
2023-01	Exp	31	46	3	17	71	42
2022-11	Rec	28	27	3	15	74	42
2022-09	Rec	30	25	3	14	85	42
2022-08	Exp	30	24	3	14	89	42
2022-06	Exp	30	21	3	14	92	42
2022-03	Rec	30	38	3	17	69	42
2022-01	Rec	32	37	3	17	85	42
2021-10	Exp	28	19	2	12	76	53
2021-08	Exp	28	22	2	12	73	53
2021-05	Exp	26	22	2	12	61	53
2021-04	Rec	26	22	2	12	59	53
2021-02	Rec	24	30	2	12	42	53
2020-11	Rec	29	60	2	21	38	43
2020-08	Rec	27	35	2	21	51	43
2020-05	Rec	27	27	2	21	60	43
2020-03	Exp	30	14	2	19	94	43
2020-01	Exp	33	30	2	19	96	43
2019-10	Rec	32	28	2	20	96	40
2019-08	Rec	39	74	2	21	90	40
2019-07	Hyp	40	75	2	21	93	40
2019-06	Exp	39	73	2	22	90	40
2019-04	Exp	36	79	2	22	64	40
2019-01	Exp	40	88	2	20	80	40

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023