Pueblo, CO

NeutralTier 1CBSA 39380Compare

Risk Rank: #222 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -10

42score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Pueblo experienced a market correction from early 2025 through late 2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Hypersupply for 5 months·Previously: Hypersupply

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Pueblo's housing market shows average risk, ranking 222nd of 287 metros. The market has been in Hypersupply for 5 months. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by affordability and employment. The market is in Hypersupply phase. Liquidity is stress and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Affordability

p90 (highest risk decile)

Mortgage payment / income

Employment

p84 (elevated risk)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration

p41 (below average risk)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +26% YoY with days on market up +42% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↓

Active Listings YoY

+25.9%p76

Days on Market YoY

+42.1%p93

Months in status22

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+6.1%p98

Months in status15

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum7

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth23

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita8

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability90

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment84

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration41

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	-1.0%	p7
Permit Growth	-16.0%	p23
Permits/1K Pop	1.33	p8
Affordability	0.34	p90
Employment	-0.5%	p84
Net AGI Migration	+$33K	p41

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-16.0%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Both supply and demand are in contraction. The market is in full retreat — builders have stopped and buyers have pulled back.

Liquidity

Stress↓

Active Listings YoY+25.9%

Days on Market YoY+42.1%

AssessmentSignificant supply buildup

Stress for 22 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	45	5	31	89	91	41
2025-09	Hyp	41	2	31	89	72	41
2025-07	Ress	45	1	31	89	96	41
2025-05	Ress	46	10	31	92	88	41
2025-02	Hyp	48	19	31	90	94	41
2024-12	Ress	52	47	31	91	92	41
2024-10	Ress	49	30	31	91	89	41
2024-09	Hyp	59	85	31	95	88	41
2024-07	Hyp	58	74	31	95	96	41
2024-05	Ress	50	27	31	93	95	41
2024-03	Ress	45	1	31	90	95	41
2024-02	Exp	44	0	31	90	92	41
2023-12	Rec	43	0	31	82	94	41
2023-10	Rec	43	1	31	82	92	41
2023-07	Rec	41	2	31	83	76	41
2023-06	Hyp	44	6	31	84	90	41
2023-04	Hyp	46	9	31	84	96	41
2023-03	Ress	48	27	31	90	85	41
2023-01	Ress	46	22	31	90	82	41
2022-10	Ress	50	39	31	93	82	41
2022-09	Hyp	51	40	31	93	91	41
2022-07	Ress	49	36	31	93	80	41
2022-05	Ress	49	59	31	94	55	41
2022-03	Hyp	55	78	31	95	72	41
2022-01	Ress	53	83	31	95	56	41
2021-11	Ress	58	84	30	91	84	45
2021-10	Hyp	58	84	30	91	84	45
2021-09	Ress	60	93	30	93	83	45
2021-07	Ress	62	93	30	93	100	45
2021-06	Exp	62	94	30	93	95	45
2021-04	Exp	62	94	30	93	96	45
2021-01	Exp	58	96	30	91	73	45
2020-11	Rec	53	97	30	95	39	45
2020-09	Rec	50	98	30	95	17	45
2020-06	Exp	49	97	30	93	16	45
2020-04	Exp	48	99	30	93	5	45
2020-03	Rec	47	97	30	93	2	45
2020-01	Rec	47	96	30	93	3	45
2019-10	Exp	52	97	30	92	37	44
2019-08	Exp	49	96	30	93	20	44
2019-07	Rec	50	93	30	93	27	44
2019-05	Rec	55	93	30	91	62	44
2019-02	Ress	58	92	30	90	80	44
2019-01	Ress	60	89	30	90	93	44

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022