Provo-Orem-Lehi, UT
Executive Summary
Provo's housing market shows average risk, ranking 157th of 287 metros. The market has been in Recovery for 5 months. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring. Recovery underway but inventory still elevated — watch for follow-through.
Provo experienced a market correction from late 2024 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.
Inventory is elevated (+18% YoY) and days on market are up -3% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.
Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.
Cycle Phase
Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period
Key Dynamics
Risk is primarily driven by permits per capita and permit growth, while employment provides the most support.
Top Drivers
Market Signals
Inventory is elevated (+18% YoY) and days on market are up -3% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.
Liquidity
Valuation
Factor Details
12-month HPI change — higher = overheating
YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure
Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk
Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened
12-month employment change (risk inverted)
Net AGI migration (risk inverted)
National Context
Credit Conditions
Credit Regime
Early-stage recovery with lingering transaction weakness. Credit is available but buyer activity hasn't fully returned yet.
Supply Pipeline
Supply Regime
Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.
Local Signals
Metro Permit Activity
Permit Activity
NormalRaw signal — not the composite percentile
Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro
Permit activity is typical but demand is softening. Price pressure is forming on the demand side — this is not a supply problem.
Employment Concentration
Employment
ModerateInternal Structure
County-level structural analysis.
County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.
Score History
| Month | Score |
|---|---|
| 2025-11 | 45 |
| 2025-09 | 47 |
| 2025-07 | 40 |
| 2025-05 | 41 |
| 2025-04 | 46 |
| 2025-02 | 50 |
| 2024-11 | 43 |
| 2024-09 | 49 |
| 2024-08 | 49 |
| 2024-06 | 47 |
| 2024-05 | 46 |
| 2024-04 | 42 |
| 2024-02 | 43 |
| 2023-11 | 43 |
| 2023-08 | 42 |
| 2023-06 | 40 |
| 2023-05 | 43 |
| 2023-03 | 43 |
| 2023-01 | 41 |
| 2022-11 | 38 |
| 2022-08 | 50 |
| 2022-05 | 52 |
| 2022-02 | 54 |
| 2022-01 | 54 |
| 2021-12 | 58 |
| 2021-11 | 56 |
| 2021-09 | 55 |
| 2021-07 | 55 |
| 2021-04 | 55 |
| 2021-02 | 50 |
| 2020-12 | 62 |
| 2020-09 | 60 |
| 2020-06 | 59 |
| 2020-04 | 59 |
| 2020-03 | 63 |
| 2020-01 | 60 |
| 2019-10 | 49 |
| 2019-08 | 49 |
| 2019-06 | 50 |
| 2019-03 | 50 |
| 2019-01 | 50 |