Rankings/Provo-Orem-Lehi, UT

Provo-Orem-Lehi, UT

NeutralTier 1CBSA 39340Compare

Risk Rank: #177 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— 0

46score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Provo experienced a market correction from late 2024 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 5 months·Previously: Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Provo's housing market shows average risk, ranking 177th of 287 metros. The market has been in Recovery for 5 months. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by permits per capita and permit growth. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is watch and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Permits per Capita

p93 (highest risk decile)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Permit Growth

p75 (elevated risk)

YoY permit change

Price Momentum

p36 (below average risk)

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+18% YoY) and days on market are up -3% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↓

Active Listings YoY

+17.8%p67

Days on Market YoY

-2.6%p42

Months in status5

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced↓

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.4%p71

Months in status10

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum36

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth75

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita93

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability34

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment17

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration18

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+1.6%	p36
Permit Growth	+13.9%	p75
Permits/1K Pop	10.08	p93
Affordability	0.26	p34
Employment	+1.1%	p17
Net AGI Migration	+$221K	p18

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Early-stage recovery with lingering transaction weakness. Credit is available but buyer activity hasn't fully returned yet.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+13.9%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Permit activity is typical but demand is softening. Price pressure is forming on the demand side — this is not a supply problem.

Liquidity

Watch↓

Active Listings YoY+17.8%

Days on Market YoY-2.6%

AssessmentInventory building

Watch for 5 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	45	48	53	32	33	18
2025-09	Rec	47	54	53	32	37	18
2025-07	Hyp	40	37	53	32	12	18
2025-05	Hyp	41	36	53	32	18	18
2025-04	Ress	46	36	53	32	53	18
2025-02	Ress	50	67	53	39	37	18
2024-11	Hyp	43	36	53	32	32	18
2024-09	Hyp	49	55	53	35	45	18
2024-08	Ress	49	49	53	34	54	18
2024-06	Ress	47	38	53	37	50	18
2024-05	Hyp	46	33	53	37	49	18
2024-04	Exp	42	29	53	37	28	18
2024-02	Exp	43	13	53	36	52	18
2023-11	Exp	43	10	53	25	64	18
2023-08	Rec	42	5	53	26	65	18
2023-06	Rec	40	6	53	30	46	18
2023-05	Hyp	43	5	53	30	67	18
2023-03	Hyp	43	8	53	33	60	18
2023-01	Ress	41	9	53	33	46	18
2022-11	Ress	38	13	53	36	19	18
2022-08	Ress	50	58	53	44	38	18
2022-05	Ress	52	83	53	48	20	18
2022-02	Ress	54	93	53	46	26	18
2022-01	Hyp	54	96	53	46	24	18
2021-12	Rec	58	95	53	49	32	30
2021-11	Hyp	56	95	53	49	20	30
2021-09	Exp	55	97	53	47	14	30
2021-07	Exp	55	97	53	47	13	30
2021-04	Exp	55	97	53	45	19	30
2021-02	Rec	50	94	53	33	1	30
2020-12	Rec	62	92	53	39	1	97
2020-09	Rec	60	87	53	34	1	97
2020-06	Exp	59	83	53	33	1	97
2020-04	Exp	59	81	53	33	2	97
2020-03	Rec	63	75	53	33	33	97
2020-01	Rec	60	74	53	33	13	97
2019-10	Rec	49	82	53	31	7	32
2019-08	Hyp	49	85	53	31	3	32
2019-06	Hyp	50	92	53	30	7	32
2019-03	Ress	50	92	53	30	7	32
2019-01	Ress	50	93	53	30	6	32

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022