Rankings/Provo-Orem-Lehi, UT

Provo-Orem-Lehi, UT

NeutralTier 1CBSA 39340Compare

Risk Rank: #211 of 274Month: 2026-06Score change (12m):— -2

42score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Provo's housing market shows average risk, ranking 211th of 274 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Provo experienced a market correction from late 2024 through mid-2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is roughly flat (-2% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

2 months in current phase·from Expansion

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permits per capita and price momentum, while employment provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permits per Capitap88

Permits per 1,000 residents

Price Momentump58

12-month HPI change

Permit Growthp54

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (-2% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

-2.5%p46

Days on Market YoY

+1.9%p51

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.5%p71

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumNeutral

+1.7%p58

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthNeutral

+0.4%p54

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaHigh Risk

9.37p88

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityBelow Avg

0.27p33

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentLow Risk

+2.0%p7

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationLow Risk

+$191Kp15

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

N/ANormal

Rate Change (YoY)

-5 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+194 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.1 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

+0.4%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Builders are pulling back but demand remains healthy. A supply constraint could form — fewer new units entering a market that is still absorbing well.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorGovernment 16%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-05	Exp	46	62	59	33	17	15
2025-12	Rec	48	54	75	34	17	15
2025-10	Rec	51	60	53	32	55	18
2025-07	Hyp	40	37	53	32	12	18
2025-05	Hyp	41	36	53	32	18	18
2025-04	Ress	46	36	53	32	53	18
2025-02	Ress	50	67	53	39	37	18
2024-11	Hyp	43	36	53	32	32	18
2024-09	Hyp	49	55	53	35	45	18
2024-08	Ress	49	49	53	34	54	18
2024-06	Ress	47	38	53	37	50	18
2024-05	Hyp	46	33	53	37	49	18
2024-04	Exp	42	29	53	37	28	18
2024-02	Exp	43	13	53	36	52	18
2023-11	Exp	43	10	53	25	64	18
2023-08	Rec	42	5	53	26	65	18
2023-06	Rec	40	6	53	30	46	18
2023-05	Hyp	43	5	53	30	67	18
2023-03	Hyp	43	8	53	33	60	18
2023-01	Ress	41	9	53	33	46	18
2022-11	Ress	38	13	53	36	19	18
2022-08	Ress	50	58	53	44	38	18
2022-05	Ress	52	83	53	48	20	18
2022-02	Ress	54	93	53	46	26	18
2022-01	Hyp	54	96	53	46	24	18
2021-12	Rec	58	95	53	49	32	30
2021-11	Hyp	56	95	53	49	20	30
2021-09	Exp	55	97	53	47	14	30
2021-07	Exp	55	97	53	47	13	30
2021-04	Exp	55	97	53	45	19	30
2021-02	Rec	50	94	53	33	1	30
2020-12	Rec	62	92	53	39	1	97
2020-09	Rec	60	87	53	34	1	97
2020-06	Exp	59	83	53	33	1	97
2020-04	Exp	59	81	53	33	2	97
2020-03	Rec	63	75	53	33	33	97
2020-01	Rec	60	74	53	33	13	97
2019-10	Rec	49	82	53	31	7	32
2019-08	Hyp	49	85	53	31	3	32
2019-06	Hyp	50	92	53	30	7	32
2019-03	Ress	50	92	53	30	7	32
2019-01	Ress	50	93	53	30	6	32

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-06

Income2024

Employment2026-06

Migration2023