Rankings/Providence-Warwick, RI-MA

Providence-Warwick, RI-MA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 39300Compare

Risk Rank: #55 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -7

58score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Providence experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through mid-2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Expansion for 1 month·Previously: Recovery

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Providence's housing market shows average risk, ranking 55th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Inventory is growing moderately (+13% YoY) with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by permit growth and affordability. The market is in Expansion phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Permit Growth

p86 (elevated risk)

YoY permit change

Affordability

p77 (elevated risk)

Mortgage payment / income

Price Momentum

p62 (moderate)

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +13% pace with homes taking +4% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

+12.5%p62

Days on Market YoY

+4.1%p56

Months in status4

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+1.8%p86

Months in status43

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum62

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth86

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita10

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability77

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment59

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration55

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+3.2%	p62
Permit Growth	+28.3%	p86
Permits/1K Pop	1.55	p10
Affordability	0.31	p77
Employment	+0.1%	p59
Net AGI Migration	+$5K	p55

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Elevated

YoY Permit Growth

+28.3%Above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Above-normal building activity with healthy demand. Balanced expansion — the market is absorbing new supply without stress.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY+12.5%

Days on Market YoY+4.1%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 4 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Providence's 6 counties show moderate divergence — Washington County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Bristol County anchors the lower end.

Moderate13.1

6 of 6 counties scored

Providence, RI-MA shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Washington County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by price momentum), while Bristol County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Washington CountyRisk Driver	67	Elevated	16.7%	100	20	80
Kent County	60	Elevated	16.7%	80	100	0
Newport County	53	Average	16.7%	0	60	100
Providence County	53	Average	16.7%	60	80	20
Bristol County	40	Below Average	16.7%	20	40	60
Bristol CountyStabilizer	27	Below Average	16.7%	40	0	40

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	62	68	83	77	81	54
2025-09	Rec	64	74	83	77	87	54
2025-08	Hyp	65	75	83	77	88	54
2025-06	Ress	66	79	83	77	94	54
2025-04	Ress	66	83	83	77	88	54
2025-03	Hyp	66	88	83	76	85	54
2025-01	Rec	65	83	83	76	81	54
2024-11	Rec	65	82	83	73	84	54
2024-09	Ress	63	88	83	74	69	54
2024-07	Ress	62	87	83	74	63	54
2024-06	Hyp	59	83	83	74	47	54
2024-04	Rec	59	87	83	74	43	54
2024-02	Rec	62	86	83	70	64	54
2024-01	Exp	62	84	83	70	69	54
2023-11	Exp	59	86	83	57	60	54
2023-08	Rec	59	81	83	55	71	54
2023-06	Rec	56	58	83	52	79	54
2023-03	Ress	50	39	83	49	66	54
2023-01	Ress	51	43	83	49	66	54
2022-12	Hyp	49	36	83	44	67	54
2022-11	Exp	51	36	83	45	74	54
2022-10	Rec	50	34	83	45	72	54
2022-08	Rec	47	38	83	45	49	54
2022-07	Exp	48	37	83	45	56	54
2022-05	Exp	49	48	83	45	53	54
2022-02	Exp	46	45	83	45	39	54
2022-01	Rec	47	46	83	45	42	54
2021-11	Rec	44	53	83	51	43	19
2021-10	Exp	43	53	83	51	42	19
2021-08	Exp	42	65	83	52	24	19
2021-05	Exp	41	71	83	53	6	19
2021-03	Rec	53	72	83	51	81	19
2021-01	Rec	53	73	83	51	80	19
2020-12	Exp	51	70	83	49	82	12
2020-10	Exp	50	62	83	49	79	12
2020-09	Rec	48	53	83	48	81	12
2020-07	Rec	51	61	83	48	92	12
2020-04	Exp	51	58	83	48	94	12
2020-02	Exp	45	50	83	48	63	12
2020-01	Rec	46	50	83	48	69	12
2019-11	Rec	54	56	83	48	72	55
2019-08	Rec	53	45	83	48	77	55
2019-06	Exp	53	45	83	48	76	55
2019-04	Exp	53	43	83	48	77	55
2019-03	Hyp	51	39	83	47	70	55
2019-01	Hyp	50	36	83	47	66	55

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022