Rankings/Prescott Valley-Prescott, AZ

Prescott Valley-Prescott, AZ

NeutralTier 1CBSA 39150Compare

Risk Rank: #161 of 274Month: 2026-05Score change (12m):↓ -22

48score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Prescott Valley's housing market shows average risk, ranking 161st of 274 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Prescott Valley has maintained relatively stable market conditions throughout the observation period, currently in Expansion.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by employment and affordability, while price momentum provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Employmentp94

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Affordabilityp90

Mortgage payment / income

Permits per Capitap72

Permits per 1,000 residents

Market Signals

Supplementary market indicators.

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+2.8%p92

Months in status1

Data through May 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumLow Risk

-2.4%p0

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk

-19.3%p19

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaElevated

6.30p72

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityHigh Risk

0.35p90

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentHigh Risk

-1.5%p94

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationLow Risk

+$262Kp11

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Bank Lending Standards

-3.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-38 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+199 bpsElevated

Stable for 9 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-5.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorGovernment 15.9%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-12	Exp	58	73	28	93	69	11
2025-10	Exp	70	76	81	93	77	10
2025-07	Exp	68	78	81	93	62	10
2025-04	Exp	68	41	81	92	98	10
2025-01	Exp	64	20	81	91	99	10
2024-10	Exp	57	30	81	89	48	10
2024-07	Exp	66	37	81	89	94	10
2024-04	Exp	64	42	81	91	78	10
2024-01	Exp	52	31	81	91	19	10
2023-10	Exp	65	26	81	94	94	10
2023-07	Exp	56	7	81	92	62	10
2023-04	Exp	49	13	81	93	13	10
2023-01	Exp	52	32	81	93	13	10
2022-10	Exp	52	29	81	94	11	10
2022-07	Exp	61	73	81	95	25	10
2022-04	Exp	64	87	81	97	26	10
2022-01	Exp	66	85	81	97	38	10
2021-10	Exp	66	94	81	98	27	11
2021-07	Exp	65	92	81	98	26	11
2021-04	Exp	65	93	81	98	22	11
2021-01	Exp	64	87	81	97	24	11
2020-10	Exp	63	84	81	98	17	12
2020-07	Exp	63	85	81	98	16	12
2020-04	Exp	67	80	81	98	46	12
2020-01	Exp	64	88	81	98	23	12
2019-10	Exp	58	60	81	98	16	11
2019-07	Exp	71	79	81	98	74	11
2019-04	Exp	71	81	81	98	70	11
2019-01	Exp	70	86	81	97	59	11

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-05

Income2024

Employment2026-05

Migration2023