Rankings/Prescott Valley-Prescott, AZ

Prescott Valley-Prescott, AZ

NeutralTier 1CBSA 39150Compare

Risk Rank: #49 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +5

59score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Prescott Valley has maintained relatively stable market conditions throughout the observation period, currently in Expansion.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Expansion for 84 months·Previously: Expansion

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Prescott Valley's housing market shows average risk, ranking 49th of 287 metros. The market has been in Expansion for 84 months.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by affordability and permits per capita. The market is in Expansion phase. Liquidity is not yet assessed and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Affordability

p93 (highest risk decile)

Mortgage payment / income

Permits per Capita

p77 (elevated risk)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Price Momentum

p76 (elevated risk)

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Supplementary market indicators.

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-1.1%p48

Months in status18

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum76

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth28

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita77

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability93

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment69

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration10

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+4.0%	p76
Permit Growth	-13.9%	p28
Permits/1K Pop	6.99	p77
Affordability	0.35	p93
Employment	-0.1%	p69
Net AGI Migration	+$396K	p10

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Exp	67	78	81	93	58	10
2025-09	Exp	72	79	81	93	88	10
2025-06	Exp	71	72	81	92	86	10
2025-03	Exp	63	16	81	91	99	10
2024-12	Exp	54	15	81	89	49	10
2024-09	Exp	64	27	81	89	91	10
2024-06	Exp	70	66	81	91	86	10
2024-03	Exp	52	43	81	91	7	10
2023-12	Exp	64	18	81	94	96	10
2023-09	Exp	59	10	81	92	77	10
2023-06	Exp	54	14	81	93	40	10
2023-03	Exp	52	21	81	93	22	10
2022-12	Exp	51	26	81	94	11	10
2022-09	Exp	59	69	81	95	13	10
2022-06	Exp	65	87	81	97	32	10
2022-03	Exp	68	81	81	97	56	10
2021-12	Exp	66	93	81	98	29	11
2021-09	Exp	64	93	81	98	21	11
2021-06	Exp	69	92	81	98	51	11
2021-03	Exp	62	90	81	97	9	11
2020-12	Exp	61	72	81	98	18	12
2020-09	Exp	64	88	81	98	20	12
2020-06	Exp	61	79	81	98	14	12
2020-03	Exp	65	88	81	98	28	12
2019-12	Exp	64	67	81	98	46	11
2019-09	Exp	63	70	81	98	36	11
2019-06	Exp	71	81	81	98	72	11
2019-03	Exp	73	81	81	97	83	11
2019-01	Exp	70	86	81	97	59	11

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022