Rankings/Prescott Valley-Prescott, AZ

Prescott Valley-Prescott, AZ

NeutralTier 1CBSA 39150Compare

Risk Rank: #142 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):↓ -24

49score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Prescott Valley's housing market shows average risk, ranking 142nd of 273 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Prescott Valley has maintained relatively stable market conditions throughout the observation period, currently in Expansion.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by employment and affordability, while permit growth provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Employmentp96

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Affordabilityp92

Mortgage payment / income

Permits per Capitap63

Permits per 1,000 residents

Market Signals

Supplementary market indicators.

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-0.3%p59

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumBelow Avg

+1.2%p28

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk

-32.9%p5

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaElevated

5.29p63

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityHigh Risk

0.36p92

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentHigh Risk

-1.2%p96

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationLow Risk

+$262Kp11

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorGovernment 15.9%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Exp	40	0	5	90	70	11
2025-12	Exp	58	73	28	93	69	11
2025-09	Exp	72	79	81	93	88	10
2025-06	Exp	71	72	81	92	86	10
2025-03	Exp	63	16	81	91	99	10
2024-12	Exp	54	15	81	89	49	10
2024-09	Exp	64	27	81	89	91	10
2024-06	Exp	70	66	81	91	86	10
2024-03	Exp	52	43	81	91	7	10
2023-12	Exp	64	18	81	94	96	10
2023-09	Exp	59	10	81	92	77	10
2023-06	Exp	54	14	81	93	40	10
2023-03	Exp	52	21	81	93	22	10
2022-12	Exp	51	26	81	94	11	10
2022-09	Exp	59	69	81	95	13	10
2022-06	Exp	65	87	81	97	32	10
2022-03	Exp	68	81	81	97	56	10
2021-12	Exp	66	93	81	98	29	11
2021-09	Exp	64	93	81	98	21	11
2021-06	Exp	69	92	81	98	51	11
2021-03	Exp	62	90	81	97	9	11
2020-12	Exp	61	72	81	98	18	12
2020-09	Exp	64	88	81	98	20	12
2020-06	Exp	61	79	81	98	14	12
2020-03	Exp	65	88	81	98	28	12
2019-12	Exp	64	67	81	98	46	11
2019-09	Exp	63	70	81	98	36	11
2019-06	Exp	71	81	81	98	72	11
2019-03	Exp	73	81	81	97	83	11
2019-01	Exp	70	86	81	97	59	11

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023