Rankings/Prescott Valley-Prescott, AZ

Prescott Valley-Prescott, AZ

NeutralTier 1CBSA 39150Compare

Risk Rank: #51 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— +4

58score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Prescott Valley's housing market shows average risk, ranking 51st of 287 metros. The market has been in Expansion for 84 months. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Prescott Valley has maintained relatively stable market conditions throughout the observation period, currently in Expansion.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

84 months in current phase·from Expansion

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by affordability and permits per capita, while migration provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Affordabilityp93

Mortgage payment / income

Permits per Capitap77

Permits per 1,000 residents

Price Momentump73

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Supplementary market indicators.

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-1.3%p44

Months in status18

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumElevated

+4.2%p73

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-13.9%p28

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaElevated

6.99p77

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityHigh Risk

0.36p93

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentElevated

-0.1%p69

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationLow Risk

+$396Kp10

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-76 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorGovernment 15.9%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Exp	67	78	81	93	58	10
2025-09	Exp	72	79	81	93	88	10
2025-06	Exp	71	72	81	92	86	10
2025-03	Exp	63	16	81	91	99	10
2024-12	Exp	54	15	81	89	49	10
2024-09	Exp	64	27	81	89	91	10
2024-06	Exp	70	66	81	91	86	10
2024-03	Exp	52	43	81	91	7	10
2023-12	Exp	64	18	81	94	96	10
2023-09	Exp	59	10	81	92	77	10
2023-06	Exp	54	14	81	93	40	10
2023-03	Exp	52	21	81	93	22	10
2022-12	Exp	51	26	81	94	11	10
2022-09	Exp	59	69	81	95	13	10
2022-06	Exp	65	87	81	97	32	10
2022-03	Exp	68	81	81	97	56	10
2021-12	Exp	66	93	81	98	29	11
2021-09	Exp	64	93	81	98	21	11
2021-06	Exp	69	92	81	98	51	11
2021-03	Exp	62	90	81	97	9	11
2020-12	Exp	61	72	81	98	18	12
2020-09	Exp	64	88	81	98	20	12
2020-06	Exp	61	79	81	98	14	12
2020-03	Exp	65	88	81	98	28	12
2019-12	Exp	64	67	81	98	46	11
2019-09	Exp	63	70	81	98	36	11
2019-06	Exp	71	81	81	98	72	11
2019-03	Exp	73	81	81	97	83	11
2019-01	Exp	70	86	81	97	59	11

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022