Rankings/Port St. Lucie, FL

Port St. Lucie, FL

NeutralTier 1CBSA 38940Compare

Risk Rank: #188 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— 0

45score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Port St. Lucie's housing market shows average risk, ranking 188th of 287 metros. The market has been in Recovery for 4 months. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Port St. Lucie experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is roughly flat (+1% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

4 months in current phase·from Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by affordability and permits per capita, while migration provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Affordabilityp91

Mortgage payment / income

Permits per Capitap90

Permits per 1,000 residents

Employmentp40

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (+1% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+1.1%p50

Days on Market YoY

+6.6%p61

Months in status4

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.9%p78

Months in status14

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumLow Risk

+0.8%p16

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-13.3%p29

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaHigh Risk

9.29p90

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityHigh Risk

0.34p91

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentBelow Avg

+0.5%p40

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationLow Risk

+$854Kp4

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-76 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-13.3%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Diversified

Largest SectorHealth Care 17.8%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	47	4	29	90	61	5
2025-09	Rec	48	3	29	90	69	5
2025-08	Hyp	46	3	29	90	57	5
2025-06	Hyp	39	11	29	91	8	5
2025-04	Ress	46	31	29	91	28	5
2025-02	Ress	40	13	29	90	9	5
2025-01	Hyp	40	11	29	90	14	5
2024-11	Hyp	42	30	29	92	7	5
2024-08	Hyp	42	30	29	92	6	5
2024-07	Ress	45	31	29	92	20	5
2024-05	Ress	44	7	29	90	39	5
2024-02	Ress	50	24	29	93	55	5
2023-12	Hyp	48	41	29	98	21	5
2023-10	Exp	48	47	29	98	14	5
2023-09	Rec	46	40	29	98	9	5
2023-07	Rec	44	30	29	98	7	5
2023-06	Hyp	46	46	29	98	5	5
2023-04	Hyp	49	68	29	98	4	5
2023-02	Ress	51	75	29	98	8	5
2022-12	Ress	51	78	29	95	9	5
2022-09	Ress	56	96	29	97	15	5
2022-06	Ress	59	95	29	95	36	5
2022-05	Exp	59	96	29	95	37	5
2022-03	Exp	63	99	29	95	58	5
2022-02	Rec	62	98	29	95	56	5
2021-12	Rec	60	96	29	93	47	6
2021-11	Exp	60	96	29	93	41	6
2021-09	Exp	57	94	29	92	31	6
2021-06	Exp	61	92	29	91	55	6
2021-05	Rec	60	92	29	91	52	6
2021-03	Rec	52	87	29	89	7	6
2020-12	Rec	48	70	29	83	9	7
2020-09	Rec	44	49	29	83	4	7
2020-06	Rec	46	58	29	82	6	7
2020-05	Exp	47	63	29	82	11	7
2020-03	Exp	51	79	29	83	15	7
2020-02	Rec	49	65	29	83	18	7
2019-12	Rec	44	45	29	83	10	7
2019-09	Rec	48	51	29	83	24	7
2019-06	Hyp	42	32	29	83	11	7
2019-04	Exp	44	44	29	83	11	7
2019-02	Hyp	48	72	29	84	7	7
2019-01	Exp	48	67	29	84	7	7

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022