Rankings/Port St. Lucie, FL

Port St. Lucie, FL

NeutralTier 1CBSA 38940Compare

Risk Rank: #203 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— -1

44score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Port St. Lucie experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 4 months·Previously: Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Port St. Lucie's housing market shows average risk, ranking 203rd of 287 metros. The market has been in Recovery for 4 months. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by permits per capita and affordability. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Permits per Capita

p91 (highest risk decile)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Affordability

p90 (highest risk decile)

Mortgage payment / income

Employment

p40 (below average risk)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (+1% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+1.1%p50

Days on Market YoY

+6.6%p61

Months in status4

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced↑

Rent vs. Price Growth

+2.7%p91

Months in status14

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum7

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth29

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita91

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability90

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment40

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration5

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	-1.0%	p7
Permit Growth	-13.3%	p29
Permits/1K Pop	9.29	p91
Affordability	0.34	p90
Employment	+0.5%	p40
Net AGI Migration	+$854K	p5

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-13.3%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY+1.1%

Days on Market YoY+6.6%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 4 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	47	4	29	90	61	5
2025-09	Rec	48	3	29	90	69	5
2025-08	Hyp	46	3	29	90	57	5
2025-06	Hyp	39	11	29	91	8	5
2025-04	Ress	46	31	29	91	28	5
2025-02	Ress	40	13	29	90	9	5
2025-01	Hyp	40	11	29	90	14	5
2024-11	Hyp	42	30	29	92	7	5
2024-08	Hyp	42	30	29	92	6	5
2024-07	Ress	45	31	29	92	20	5
2024-05	Ress	44	7	29	90	39	5
2024-02	Ress	50	24	29	93	55	5
2023-12	Hyp	48	41	29	98	21	5
2023-10	Exp	48	47	29	98	14	5
2023-09	Rec	46	40	29	98	9	5
2023-07	Rec	44	30	29	98	7	5
2023-06	Hyp	46	46	29	98	5	5
2023-04	Hyp	49	68	29	98	4	5
2023-02	Ress	51	75	29	98	8	5
2022-12	Ress	51	78	29	95	9	5
2022-09	Ress	56	96	29	97	15	5
2022-06	Ress	59	95	29	95	36	5
2022-05	Exp	59	96	29	95	37	5
2022-03	Exp	63	99	29	95	58	5
2022-02	Rec	62	98	29	95	56	5
2021-12	Rec	60	96	29	93	47	6
2021-11	Exp	60	96	29	93	41	6
2021-09	Exp	57	94	29	92	31	6
2021-06	Exp	61	92	29	91	55	6
2021-05	Rec	60	92	29	91	52	6
2021-03	Rec	52	87	29	89	7	6
2020-12	Rec	48	70	29	83	9	7
2020-09	Rec	44	49	29	83	4	7
2020-06	Rec	46	58	29	82	6	7
2020-05	Exp	47	63	29	82	11	7
2020-03	Exp	51	79	29	83	15	7
2020-02	Rec	49	65	29	83	18	7
2019-12	Rec	44	45	29	83	10	7
2019-09	Rec	48	51	29	83	24	7
2019-06	Hyp	42	32	29	83	11	7
2019-04	Exp	44	44	29	83	11	7
2019-02	Hyp	48	72	29	84	7	7
2019-01	Exp	48	67	29	84	7	7

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022