Rankings/Port St. Lucie, FL

Port St. Lucie, FL

NeutralTier 1CBSA 38940Compare

Risk Rank: #194 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):— -2

44score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Port St. Lucie's housing market shows average risk, ranking 194th of 273 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Port St. Lucie experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is declining (-9% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by affordability and permits per capita, while migration provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Affordabilityp91

Mortgage payment / income

Permits per Capitap85

Permits per 1,000 residents

Employmentp47

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is declining (-9% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY

-9.0%p38

Days on Market YoY

-9.1%p30

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+1.3%p80

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumBelow Avg

+0.8%p22

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk

-21.2%p14

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaHigh Risk

8.18p85

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityHigh Risk

0.36p91

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentNeutral

+0.5%p47

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationLow Risk

+$714Kp4

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-21.2%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Diversified

Largest SectorHealth Care 17.8%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Exp	43	17	9	90	58	4
2025-12	Rec	45	16	29	91	40	4
2025-10	Rec	44	3	29	90	45	5
2025-08	Hyp	46	3	29	90	57	5
2025-06	Hyp	39	11	29	91	8	5
2025-04	Ress	46	31	29	91	28	5
2025-02	Ress	40	13	29	90	9	5
2025-01	Hyp	40	11	29	90	14	5
2024-11	Hyp	42	30	29	92	7	5
2024-08	Hyp	42	30	29	92	6	5
2024-07	Ress	45	31	29	92	20	5
2024-05	Ress	44	7	29	90	39	5
2024-02	Ress	50	24	29	93	55	5
2023-12	Hyp	48	41	29	98	21	5
2023-10	Exp	48	47	29	98	14	5
2023-09	Rec	46	40	29	98	9	5
2023-07	Rec	44	30	29	98	7	5
2023-06	Hyp	46	46	29	98	5	5
2023-04	Hyp	49	68	29	98	4	5
2023-02	Ress	51	75	29	98	8	5
2022-12	Ress	51	78	29	95	9	5
2022-09	Ress	56	96	29	97	15	5
2022-06	Ress	59	95	29	95	36	5
2022-05	Exp	59	96	29	95	37	5
2022-03	Exp	63	99	29	95	58	5
2022-02	Rec	62	98	29	95	56	5
2021-12	Rec	60	96	29	93	47	6
2021-11	Exp	60	96	29	93	41	6
2021-09	Exp	57	94	29	92	31	6
2021-06	Exp	61	92	29	91	55	6
2021-05	Rec	60	92	29	91	52	6
2021-03	Rec	52	87	29	89	7	6
2020-12	Rec	48	70	29	83	9	7
2020-09	Rec	44	49	29	83	4	7
2020-06	Rec	46	58	29	82	6	7
2020-05	Exp	47	63	29	82	11	7
2020-03	Exp	51	79	29	83	15	7
2020-02	Rec	49	65	29	83	18	7
2019-12	Rec	44	45	29	83	10	7
2019-09	Rec	48	51	29	83	24	7
2019-06	Hyp	42	32	29	83	11	7
2019-04	Exp	44	44	29	83	11	7
2019-02	Hyp	48	72	29	84	7	7
2019-01	Exp	48	67	29	84	7	7

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023