Rankings/Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA

Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 38900Compare

Risk Rank: #76 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +5

56score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Portland experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 3 months·Previously: Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Portland's housing market shows average risk, ranking 76th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory is growing moderately (+11% YoY) with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by migration and employment. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is not yet assessed.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Migration

p93 (highest risk decile)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Employment

p88 (elevated risk)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permits per Capita

p43 (below average risk)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +11% pace with homes taking +8% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+11.0%p60

Days on Market YoY

+7.5%p63

Months in status3

Data through Dec 2025

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum31

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth38

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita43

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability42

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment88

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration93

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+1.3%	p31
Permit Growth	-7.9%	p38
Permits/1K Pop	3.34	p43
Affordability	0.27	p42
Employment	-0.7%	p88
Net AGI Migration	-$362K	p93

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-7.9%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Builders are pulling back but demand remains healthy. A supply constraint could form — fewer new units entering a market that is still absorbing well.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY+11.0%

Days on Market YoY+7.5%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 3 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Portland's counties diverge significantly — Clark County (High Risk) contrasts sharply with Skamania County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High22.3

7 of 7 counties scored

Portland, OR-WA shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Clark County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by permit growth), while Skamania County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Clark CountyRisk Driver	78	High Risk	14.3%	67	100	67
Clackamas County	72	Elevated	14.3%	50	83	83
Yamhill County	61	Elevated	14.3%	83	67	33
Columbia County	50	Average	14.3%	100	33	17
Washington County	44	Below Average	14.3%	33	50	50
Multnomah County	39	Below Average	14.3%	17	0	100
Skamania CountyStabilizer	6	Low Risk	14.3%	0	17	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	54	33	20	41	92	94
2025-09	Hyp	54	31	20	41	91	94
2025-07	Hyp	53	29	20	41	90	94
2025-05	Ress	51	24	20	44	80	94
2025-03	Ress	50	22	20	46	74	94
2024-12	Rec	51	18	20	45	84	94
2024-11	Hyp	50	20	20	45	73	94
2024-09	Hyp	51	18	20	48	78	94
2024-06	Ress	51	14	20	50	84	94
2024-04	Ress	51	8	20	50	88	94
2024-03	Hyp	51	6	20	51	91	94
2024-01	Exp	53	12	20	51	95	94
2023-11	Exp	46	8	20	48	62	94
2023-08	Rec	51	12	20	52	82	94
2023-06	Rec	46	13	20	56	48	94
2023-05	Hyp	46	10	20	56	48	94
2023-03	Hyp	44	4	20	56	44	94
2023-01	Ress	42	4	20	56	29	94
2022-11	Ress	46	4	20	60	54	94
2022-10	Hyp	44	5	20	60	40	94
2022-08	Ress	42	8	20	65	22	94
2022-06	Ress	51	36	20	74	34	94
2022-05	Hyp	50	38	20	74	29	94
2022-04	Exp	51	38	20	74	32	94
2022-02	Exp	50	49	20	74	15	94
2022-01	Rec	50	52	20	74	17	94
2021-11	Rec	52	54	20	71	30	95
2021-10	Exp	53	54	20	71	32	95
2021-08	Exp	58	65	20	74	47	95
2021-05	Exp	60	72	20	74	51	95
2021-02	Exp	64	62	20	73	86	95
2021-01	Rec	63	59	20	73	85	95
2020-11	Rec	49	51	20	72	83	21
2020-08	Rec	45	39	20	71	73	21
2020-06	Exp	44	32	20	72	74	21
2020-04	Exp	40	29	20	72	55	21
2020-03	Rec	37	21	20	71	45	21
2020-01	Rec	37	22	20	71	44	21
2019-10	Rec	34	22	20	72	33	10
2019-07	Rec	31	16	20	71	25	10
2019-06	Hyp	32	17	20	73	29	10
2019-05	Rec	32	18	20	73	28	10
2019-04	Hyp	32	18	20	73	28	10
2019-03	Ress	33	22	20	74	25	10
2019-01	Ress	34	34	20	74	24	10

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022