Rankings/Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA

Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 38900Compare

Risk Rank: #69 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +5

56score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Portland's housing market shows average risk, ranking 69th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory is growing moderately (+11% YoY) with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Portland experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +11% pace with homes taking +8% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

3 months in current phase·from Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and employment, while price momentum provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp99

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Employmentp88

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permits per Capitap42

Permits per 1,000 residents

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +11% pace with homes taking +8% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+11.0%p60

Days on Market YoY

+7.5%p63

Months in status3

Data through Dec 2025

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumBelow Avg

+1.4%p25

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-7.9%p38

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaNeutral

3.34p42

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityNeutral

0.27p41

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentHigh Risk

-0.7%p88

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk

-$406Kp99

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-7.9%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Builders are pulling back but demand remains healthy. A supply constraint could form — fewer new units entering a market that is still absorbing well.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorGovernment 18%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Portland's counties diverge significantly — Clark County (High Risk) contrasts sharply with Multnomah County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High18.6Limited data

7 of 7 counties scored

Portland, OR-WA shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Clark County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by permit growth), while Multnomah County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Clark CountyRisk Driver	84	High Risk	20.5%	67	100	67
Clackamas County	62	Elevated	16.8%	50	83	83
Yamhill County<5%	62	Elevated	4.3%	83	67	33
Washington County	54	Average	24.0%	33	50	50
Columbia County<5%	38	Below Average	2.1%	100	33	17
Multnomah CountyStabilizer	34	Below Average	31.8%	17	0	100
Skamania County<5%	17	Low Risk	0.5%	0	17	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	54	33	20	41	92	94
2025-09	Hyp	54	31	20	41	91	94
2025-07	Hyp	53	29	20	41	90	94
2025-05	Ress	51	24	20	44	80	94
2025-03	Ress	50	22	20	46	74	94
2024-12	Rec	51	18	20	45	84	94
2024-11	Hyp	50	20	20	45	73	94
2024-09	Hyp	51	18	20	48	78	94
2024-06	Ress	51	14	20	50	84	94
2024-04	Ress	51	8	20	50	88	94
2024-03	Hyp	51	6	20	51	91	94
2024-01	Exp	53	12	20	51	95	94
2023-11	Exp	46	8	20	48	62	94
2023-08	Rec	51	12	20	52	82	94
2023-06	Rec	46	13	20	56	48	94
2023-05	Hyp	46	10	20	56	48	94
2023-03	Hyp	44	4	20	56	44	94
2023-01	Ress	42	4	20	56	29	94
2022-11	Ress	46	4	20	60	54	94
2022-10	Hyp	44	5	20	60	40	94
2022-08	Ress	42	8	20	65	22	94
2022-06	Ress	51	36	20	74	34	94
2022-05	Hyp	50	38	20	74	29	94
2022-04	Exp	51	38	20	74	32	94
2022-02	Exp	50	49	20	74	15	94
2022-01	Rec	50	52	20	74	17	94
2021-11	Rec	52	54	20	71	30	95
2021-10	Exp	53	54	20	71	32	95
2021-08	Exp	58	65	20	74	47	95
2021-05	Exp	60	72	20	74	51	95
2021-02	Exp	64	62	20	73	86	95
2021-01	Rec	63	59	20	73	85	95
2020-11	Rec	49	51	20	72	83	21
2020-08	Rec	45	39	20	71	73	21
2020-06	Exp	44	32	20	72	74	21
2020-04	Exp	40	29	20	72	55	21
2020-03	Rec	37	21	20	71	45	21
2020-01	Rec	37	22	20	71	44	21
2019-10	Rec	34	22	20	72	33	10
2019-07	Rec	31	16	20	71	25	10
2019-06	Hyp	32	17	20	73	29	10
2019-05	Rec	32	18	20	73	28	10
2019-04	Hyp	32	18	20	73	28	10
2019-03	Ress	33	22	20	74	25	10
2019-01	Ress	34	34	20	74	24	10

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023