Rankings/Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA

Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 38900Compare

Risk Rank: #34 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):↑ +10

62score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Portland's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 34th of 273 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Portland experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is roughly flat (+3% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and employment, while price momentum provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp99

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Employmentp97

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permit Growthp54

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (+3% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY

+2.8%p51

Days on Market YoY

+1.7%p50

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumBelow Avg

+1.7%p38

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthNeutral

+3.2%p54

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaNeutral

3.63p45

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityBelow Avg

0.28p40

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentHigh Risk

-1.5%p97

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk

-$406Kp99

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+3.2%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorGovernment 18%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Portland's 7 counties show moderate divergence — Clark County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Washington County anchors the lower end.

Moderate14.7Limited data

7 of 7 counties scored

Portland, OR-WA shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Clark County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permits per capita), while Washington County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Clark CountyRisk Driver	75	Elevated	20.5%	83	50	67
Clackamas County	67	Elevated	16.8%	67	67	83
Skamania County<5%	58	Elevated	0.5%	50	100	0
Multnomah County	46	Average	31.8%	33	17	100
Washington CountyStabilizer	38	Below Average	24.0%	0	33	50
Yamhill County<5%	38	Below Average	4.3%	100	0	33
Columbia County<5%	29	Below Average	2.1%	17	83	17

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Rec	58	23	41	40	99	99
2025-12	Rec	56	25	38	41	88	99
2025-09	Hyp	54	31	20	41	91	94
2025-07	Hyp	53	29	20	41	90	94
2025-05	Ress	51	24	20	44	80	94
2025-03	Ress	50	22	20	46	74	94
2024-12	Rec	51	18	20	45	84	94
2024-11	Hyp	50	20	20	45	73	94
2024-09	Hyp	51	18	20	48	78	94
2024-06	Ress	51	14	20	50	84	94
2024-04	Ress	51	8	20	50	88	94
2024-03	Hyp	51	6	20	51	91	94
2024-01	Exp	53	12	20	51	95	94
2023-11	Exp	46	8	20	48	62	94
2023-08	Rec	51	12	20	52	82	94
2023-06	Rec	46	13	20	56	48	94
2023-05	Hyp	46	10	20	56	48	94
2023-03	Hyp	44	4	20	56	44	94
2023-01	Ress	42	4	20	56	29	94
2022-11	Ress	46	4	20	60	54	94
2022-10	Hyp	44	5	20	60	40	94
2022-08	Ress	42	8	20	65	22	94
2022-06	Ress	51	36	20	74	34	94
2022-05	Hyp	50	38	20	74	29	94
2022-04	Exp	51	38	20	74	32	94
2022-02	Exp	50	49	20	74	15	94
2022-01	Rec	50	52	20	74	17	94
2021-11	Rec	52	54	20	71	30	95
2021-10	Exp	53	54	20	71	32	95
2021-08	Exp	58	65	20	74	47	95
2021-05	Exp	60	72	20	74	51	95
2021-02	Exp	64	62	20	73	86	95
2021-01	Rec	63	59	20	73	85	95
2020-11	Rec	49	51	20	72	83	21
2020-08	Rec	45	39	20	71	73	21
2020-06	Exp	44	32	20	72	74	21
2020-04	Exp	40	29	20	72	55	21
2020-03	Rec	37	21	20	71	45	21
2020-01	Rec	37	22	20	71	44	21
2019-10	Rec	34	22	20	72	33	10
2019-07	Rec	31	16	20	71	25	10
2019-06	Hyp	32	17	20	73	29	10
2019-05	Rec	32	18	20	73	28	10
2019-04	Hyp	32	18	20	73	28	10
2019-03	Ress	33	22	20	74	25	10
2019-01	Ress	34	34	20	74	24	10

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023