Rankings/Portland-South Portland, ME

Portland-South Portland, ME

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 38860Compare

Risk Rank: #19 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +13

64score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Portland experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Hypersupply for 1 month·Previously: Recovery

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Portland's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 19th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring.

Executive Summary

Risk is Elevated, driven primarily by employment and affordability. The market is in Hypersupply phase. Liquidity is watch and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Employment

p95 (highest risk decile)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Affordability

p82 (elevated risk)

Mortgage payment / income

Permits per Capita

p68 (moderate)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+23% YoY) and days on market are up +9% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↑

Active Listings YoY

+23.2%p73

Days on Market YoY

+9.0%p66

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-2.0%p33

Months in status3

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum60

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth67

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita68

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability82

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment95

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration15

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+3.1%	p60
Permit Growth	+7.5%	p67
Permits/1K Pop	5.76	p68
Affordability	0.32	p82
Employment	-1.3%	p95
Net AGI Migration	+$257K	p15

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+7.5%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Permit activity is typical but demand is softening. Price pressure is forming on the demand side — this is not a supply problem.

Liquidity

Watch↑

Active Listings YoY+23.2%

Days on Market YoY+9.0%

AssessmentInventory building

Watch for 1 monthData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Portland's 3 counties show moderate divergence — Sagadahoc County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Cumberland County anchors the lower end.

Moderate13.9Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Portland, ME shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Sagadahoc County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by price momentum), while Cumberland County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Sagadahoc CountyRisk Driver	67	Elevated	33.3%	100	100	0
York County	50	Average	33.3%	50	50	50
Cumberland CountyStabilizer	33	Below Average	33.3%	0	0	100

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	60	67	41	82	95	15
2025-09	Rec	62	72	41	82	99	15
2025-08	Hyp	59	74	41	82	82	15
2025-06	Ress	59	69	41	80	87	15
2025-04	Ress	56	67	41	80	73	15
2025-01	Rec	56	78	41	81	59	15
2024-12	Ress	51	68	41	79	43	15
2024-10	Hyp	47	62	41	79	25	15
2024-08	Hyp	50	51	41	78	50	15
2024-07	Ress	47	48	41	78	37	15
2024-05	Ress	51	72	41	77	41	15
2024-03	Hyp	52	76	41	76	43	15
2024-02	Rec	52	75	41	76	44	15
2023-12	Rec	53	83	41	66	50	15
2023-11	Exp	53	86	41	66	49	15
2023-09	Exp	54	97	41	68	38	15
2023-07	Rec	54	94	41	68	46	15
2023-05	Rec	52	76	41	63	52	15
2023-03	Hyp	53	77	41	63	59	15
2023-02	Ress	52	80	41	63	51	15
2022-12	Ress	52	68	41	68	61	15
2022-11	Hyp	53	67	41	68	66	15
2022-10	Exp	55	67	41	68	79	15
2022-08	Exp	56	65	41	68	85	15
2022-05	Exp	58	72	41	67	89	15
2022-02	Exp	54	63	41	64	79	15
2021-12	Rec	52	67	41	62	69	11
2021-10	Rec	50	67	41	62	57	11
2021-09	Exp	50	81	41	64	40	11
2021-07	Exp	44	84	41	64	3	11
2021-04	Exp	46	84	41	63	14	11
2021-03	Rec	52	90	41	61	45	11
2021-01	Rec	53	91	41	61	53	11
2020-12	Exp	55	93	41	65	58	11
2020-10	Exp	55	92	41	65	61	11
2020-09	Rec	53	75	41	63	67	11
2020-07	Rec	58	77	41	63	91	11
2020-04	Exp	53	64	41	62	78	11
2020-02	Exp	46	56	41	62	43	11
2020-01	Rec	45	58	41	62	35	11
2019-11	Rec	47	59	41	62	41	15
2019-08	Rec	45	53	41	62	39	15
2019-05	Rec	49	66	41	62	47	15
2019-03	Exp	47	62	41	62	41	15
2019-01	Exp	47	55	41	62	49	15

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022