Rankings/Pittsburgh, PA

Pittsburgh, PA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 38300Compare

Risk Rank: #201 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -7

43score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Pittsburgh's housing market shows average risk, ranking 201st of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Pittsburgh experienced a market correction from late 2022 through early 2023. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is roughly flat (+5% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

3 months in current phase·from Expansion

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and price momentum, while employment provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp99

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Price Momentump64

12-month HPI change

Affordabilityp28

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (+5% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+4.5%p53

Days on Market YoY

+0.0%p46

Months in status6

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.2%p68

Months in status43

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumElevated

+3.8%p64

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-14.3%p27

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaBelow Avg

2.14p22

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityBelow Avg

0.25p28

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentLow Risk

+1.1%p19

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk

-$496Kp99

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-76 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-14.3%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Diversified

Largest SectorHealth Care 18.5%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Pittsburgh's 8 counties show moderate divergence — Butler County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Washington County anchors the lower end.

Moderate8.6

8 of 8 counties scored

Pittsburgh, PA shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Butler County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permits per capita), while Washington County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Butler CountyRisk Driver	72	Elevated	8.1%	57	43	86
Beaver County	64	Elevated	6.8%	71	86	43
Allegheny County	57	Elevated	50.7%	43	0	100
Lawrence County<5%	57	Elevated	3.5%	100	100	29
Westmoreland County	46	Average	14.4%	14	71	71
Fayette County	46	Average	5.2%	86	57	0
Washington CountyStabilizer	39	Below Average	8.6%	0	29	57
Armstrong County<5%	18	Low Risk	2.6%	29	14	14

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Exp	40	58	23	26	14	95
2025-09	Rec	42	60	23	26	25	95
2025-07	Rec	42	62	23	26	22	95
2025-06	Hyp	46	83	23	28	26	95
2025-04	Hyp	48	78	23	28	37	95
2025-03	Exp	48	62	23	26	56	95
2025-01	Rec	50	69	23	26	66	95
2024-11	Rec	49	67	23	26	60	95
2024-09	Hyp	47	61	23	24	54	95
2024-07	Hyp	46	56	23	24	56	95
2024-06	Exp	46	57	23	25	53	95
2024-04	Exp	45	50	23	25	54	95
2024-01	Exp	46	51	23	24	56	95
2023-10	Exp	48	57	23	27	64	95
2023-08	Rec	45	49	23	27	54	95
2023-06	Rec	48	51	23	30	64	95
2023-04	Hyp	47	43	23	30	69	95
2023-03	Ress	45	29	23	26	72	95
2023-01	Ress	45	25	23	26	75	95
2022-11	Hyp	44	13	23	24	82	95
2022-10	Rec	43	13	23	24	79	95
2022-08	Rec	43	13	23	26	77	95
2022-07	Exp	41	10	23	26	68	95
2022-05	Exp	40	7	23	26	68	95
2022-02	Exp	42	12	23	28	68	95
2021-11	Exp	42	12	23	29	71	95
2021-08	Exp	44	19	23	32	75	95
2021-05	Exp	39	24	23	33	36	95
2021-03	Rec	49	34	23	35	85	95
2021-01	Rec	49	38	23	35	83	95
2020-10	Rec	52	49	23	37	89	92
2020-07	Exp	53	53	23	41	85	92
2020-05	Exp	52	53	23	39	84	92
2020-04	Rec	53	54	23	39	88	92
2020-02	Rec	53	57	23	39	85	92
2019-11	Exp	52	62	23	37	74	93
2019-09	Exp	52	69	23	40	62	93
2019-06	Exp	47	45	23	39	57	93
2019-03	Exp	47	37	23	37	70	93
2019-01	Exp	49	47	23	38	70	93

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022