Rankings/Pittsburgh, PA

Pittsburgh, PA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 38300Compare

Risk Rank: #222 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -8

42score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Pittsburgh experienced a market correction from late 2022 through early 2023. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Expansion for 3 months·Previously: Expansion

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Pittsburgh's housing market shows average risk, ranking 222nd of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by migration and price momentum. The market is in Expansion phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Migration

p95 (highest risk decile)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Price Momentum

p58 (moderate)

12-month HPI change

Permit Growth

p28 (below average risk)

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (+5% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+4.5%p53

Days on Market YoY

+0.0%p46

Months in status6

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+1.1%p79

Months in status43

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum58

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth28

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita23

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability28

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment18

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration95

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+2.9%	p58
Permit Growth	-14.3%	p28
Permits/1K Pop	2.14	p23
Affordability	0.25	p28
Employment	+1.1%	p18
Net AGI Migration	-$496K	p95

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-14.3%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY+4.5%

Days on Market YoY+0.0%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 6 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Pittsburgh's 8 counties show moderate divergence — Lawrence County carries the most risk (High Risk) while Armstrong County anchors the lower end.

Moderate17.8

8 of 8 counties scored

Pittsburgh, PA shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Lawrence County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by price momentum), while Armstrong County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Lawrence CountyRisk Driver	76	High Risk	12.5%	100	100	29
Beaver County	67	Elevated	12.5%	71	86	43
Butler County	62	Elevated	12.5%	57	43	86
Westmoreland County	52	Average	12.5%	14	71	71
Fayette County	48	Average	12.5%	86	57	0
Allegheny County	48	Average	12.5%	43	0	100
Washington County	29	Below Average	12.5%	0	29	57
Armstrong CountyStabilizer	19	Low Risk	12.5%	29	14	14

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Exp	40	58	23	26	14	95
2025-09	Rec	42	60	23	26	25	95
2025-07	Rec	42	62	23	26	22	95
2025-06	Hyp	46	83	23	28	26	95
2025-04	Hyp	48	78	23	28	37	95
2025-03	Exp	48	62	23	26	56	95
2025-01	Rec	50	69	23	26	66	95
2024-11	Rec	49	67	23	26	60	95
2024-09	Hyp	47	61	23	24	54	95
2024-07	Hyp	46	56	23	24	56	95
2024-06	Exp	46	57	23	25	53	95
2024-04	Exp	45	50	23	25	54	95
2024-01	Exp	46	51	23	24	56	95
2023-10	Exp	48	57	23	27	64	95
2023-08	Rec	45	49	23	27	54	95
2023-06	Rec	48	51	23	30	64	95
2023-04	Hyp	47	43	23	30	69	95
2023-03	Ress	45	29	23	26	72	95
2023-01	Ress	45	25	23	26	75	95
2022-11	Hyp	44	13	23	24	82	95
2022-10	Rec	43	13	23	24	79	95
2022-08	Rec	43	13	23	26	77	95
2022-07	Exp	41	10	23	26	68	95
2022-05	Exp	40	7	23	26	68	95
2022-02	Exp	42	12	23	28	68	95
2021-11	Exp	42	12	23	29	71	95
2021-08	Exp	44	19	23	32	75	95
2021-05	Exp	39	24	23	33	36	95
2021-03	Rec	49	34	23	35	85	95
2021-01	Rec	49	38	23	35	83	95
2020-10	Rec	52	49	23	37	89	92
2020-07	Exp	53	53	23	41	85	92
2020-05	Exp	52	53	23	39	84	92
2020-04	Rec	53	54	23	39	88	92
2020-02	Rec	53	57	23	39	85	92
2019-11	Exp	52	62	23	37	74	93
2019-09	Exp	52	69	23	40	62	93
2019-06	Exp	47	45	23	39	57	93
2019-03	Exp	47	37	23	37	70	93
2019-01	Exp	49	47	23	38	70	93

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022