Rankings/Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ

Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ

NeutralTier 1CBSA 38060Compare

Risk Rank: #212 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -6

42score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Phoenix's housing market shows average risk, ranking 212th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring. Recovery underway but inventory still elevated — watch for follow-through.

Phoenix experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through late 2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is elevated (+16% YoY) and days on market are up +6% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase·from Hypersupply

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by affordability and permits per capita, while migration provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Affordabilityp88

Mortgage payment / income

Permits per Capitap83

Permits per 1,000 residents

Permit Growthp33

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+16% YoY) and days on market are up +6% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↓

Active Listings YoY

+15.6%p65

Days on Market YoY

+6.1%p60

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-1.8%p37

Months in status17

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumBelow Avg

+1.3%p25

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-11.3%p33

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaHigh Risk

7.85p83

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityHigh Risk

0.34p88

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentBelow Avg

+0.9%p25

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationLow Risk

+$2Mp0

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Early-stage recovery with lingering transaction weakness. Credit is available but buyer activity hasn't fully returned yet.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-11.3%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Sharp building pullback with softening demand. Mixed signals — builders saw weakness early, but demand hasn't fully deteriorated yet.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Diversified

Largest SectorHealth Care 14.5%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	46	17	45	87	34	2
2025-09	Hyp	44	15	45	87	29	2
2025-08	Ress	45	15	45	87	33	2
2025-06	Ress	54	23	45	88	76	2
2025-05	Rec	50	21	45	88	59	2
2025-04	Hyp	51	21	45	88	60	2
2025-03	Ress	55	20	45	87	90	2
2025-01	Ress	55	20	45	87	89	2
2024-12	Hyp	48	20	45	88	48	2
2024-10	Hyp	46	17	45	88	35	2
2024-07	Hyp	54	28	45	88	73	2
2024-06	Ress	48	35	45	88	29	2
2024-04	Ress	49	50	45	88	20	2
2024-03	Hyp	48	57	45	89	6	2
2024-02	Exp	48	54	45	89	7	2
2023-12	Exp	49	46	45	90	21	2
2023-09	Exp	41	13	45	90	8	2
2023-08	Rec	41	7	45	90	13	2
2023-06	Rec	41	2	45	89	20	2
2023-05	Hyp	42	3	45	89	22	2
2023-03	Ress	42	7	45	89	20	2
2023-01	Ress	42	12	45	89	19	2
2022-12	Hyp	44	21	45	90	19	2
2022-11	Ress	44	28	45	90	12	2
2022-09	Ress	56	84	45	92	23	2
2022-06	Ress	56	92	45	92	20	2
2022-04	Exp	56	95	45	92	16	2
2022-02	Exp	58	97	45	91	28	2
2021-11	Exp	58	96	45	91	24	2
2021-08	Exp	56	97	45	91	16	2
2021-05	Rec	64	96	45	89	64	2
2021-03	Rec	56	97	45	87	17	2
2020-12	Exp	57	97	45	91	23	0
2020-10	Exp	57	98	45	91	20	0
2020-09	Rec	57	98	45	89	25	0
2020-07	Rec	56	98	45	89	18	0
2020-06	Exp	55	97	45	89	11	0
2020-04	Exp	55	97	45	89	11	0
2020-03	Rec	54	96	45	88	6	0
2020-01	Rec	53	92	45	88	5	0
2019-10	Rec	51	82	45	88	4	0
2019-07	Rec	50	78	45	87	4	0
2019-04	Rec	52	90	45	87	6	0
2019-03	Exp	52	89	45	87	8	0
2019-01	Exp	52	85	45	87	7	0

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023