Rankings/Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD

Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD

NeutralTier 1CBSA 37980Compare

Risk Rank: #177 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -11

46score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Philadelphia experienced a market correction from early 2023 through early 2023. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 4 months·Previously: Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Philadelphia's housing market shows average risk, ranking 177th of 287 metros. The market has been in Recovery for 4 months. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by migration and price momentum. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Migration

p97 (highest risk decile)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Price Momentum

p69 (moderate)

12-month HPI change

Permit Growth

p50 (moderate)

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +8% pace with homes taking +2% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+7.6%p57

Days on Market YoY

+1.8%p51

Months in status3

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-0.5%p57

Months in status14

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum69

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth50

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita23

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability19

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment16

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration97

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+3.6%	p69
Permit Growth	-1.9%	p50
Permits/1K Pop	2.15	p23
Affordability	0.24	p19
Employment	+1.2%	p16
Net AGI Migration	-$1M	p97

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-1.9%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Builders are pulling back but demand remains healthy. A supply constraint could form — fewer new units entering a market that is still absorbing well.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY+7.6%

Days on Market YoY+1.8%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 3 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Philadelphia's 11 counties show moderate divergence — Burlington County carries the most risk (High Risk) while Delaware County anchors the lower end.

Moderate14.7

11 of 11 counties scored

Philadelphia, PA-NJ-DE-MD shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Burlington County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by price momentum), while Delaware County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Burlington CountyRisk Driver	77	High Risk	9.1%	100	70	60
New Castle County	70	Elevated	9.1%	60	100	50
Chester County	57	Elevated	9.1%	30	60	80
Montgomery County	53	Average	9.1%	10	80	70
Camden County	53	Average	9.1%	90	40	30
Bucks County	53	Average	9.1%	50	20	90
Cecil County	47	Average	9.1%	40	90	10
Gloucester County	43	Below Average	9.1%	80	30	20
Salem County	40	Below Average	9.1%	70	50	0
Philadelphia County	33	Below Average	9.1%	0	0	100
Delaware CountyStabilizer	23	Low Risk	9.1%	20	10	40

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	50	74	72	17	16	97
2025-09	Rec	51	76	72	17	21	97
2025-08	Hyp	49	76	72	17	10	97
2025-07	Rec	50	74	72	17	15	97
2025-06	Hyp	52	72	72	17	29	97
2025-04	Hyp	54	76	72	17	40	97
2025-02	Rec	56	75	72	18	47	97
2024-12	Rec	57	70	72	17	64	97
2024-11	Exp	57	70	72	17	60	97
2024-09	Exp	57	73	72	18	57	97
2024-06	Exp	55	71	72	17	50	97
2024-03	Exp	56	66	72	16	61	97
2023-12	Exp	55	64	72	16	54	97
2023-09	Exp	54	65	72	15	47	97
2023-08	Rec	55	71	72	15	50	97
2023-06	Rec	54	64	72	15	48	97
2023-03	Rec	52	60	72	16	40	97
2023-02	Ress	51	57	72	16	38	97
2023-01	Hyp	49	54	72	16	28	97
2022-12	Exp	48	46	72	17	30	97
2022-10	Exp	46	45	72	17	20	97
2022-09	Rec	42	23	72	14	19	97
2022-07	Rec	40	21	72	14	14	97
2022-06	Exp	41	21	72	14	19	97
2022-04	Exp	41	18	72	14	23	97
2022-01	Rec	43	22	72	15	28	97
2021-11	Rec	44	26	73	13	32	96
2021-09	Exp	46	33	73	13	36	96
2021-07	Exp	45	33	73	13	32	96
2021-04	Rec	45	36	73	13	26	96
2021-02	Rec	56	56	73	13	75	96
2021-01	Exp	56	55	73	13	73	96
2020-11	Exp	54	45	73	13	76	95
2020-08	Exp	56	54	73	12	76	95
2020-05	Rec	56	48	73	13	80	95
2020-03	Rec	50	49	73	13	47	95
2019-12	Rec	51	55	73	13	45	97
2019-09	Rec	49	47	73	12	39	97
2019-06	Rec	48	34	73	12	44	97
2019-04	Exp	46	28	73	12	43	97
2019-02	Exp	48	26	73	12	54	97
2019-01	Exp	48	27	73	12	52	97

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022