Peoria, IL

NeutralTier 1CBSA 37900Compare

Risk Rank: #55 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +12

58score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Peoria experienced a market correction from late 2024 through late 2024. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Expansion for 4 months·Previously: Expansion

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Peoria's housing market shows average risk, ranking 55th of 287 metros. The market has been in Expansion for 4 months. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by price momentum and employment. The market is in Expansion phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Price Momentum

p95 (highest risk decile)

12-month HPI change

Employment

p94 (highest risk decile)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration

p78 (elevated risk)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +10% pace with homes taking -14% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY

+9.6%p59

Days on Market YoY

-13.7%p24

Months in status10

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-0.7%p53

Months in status38

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum95

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth76

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita0

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability4

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment94

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration78

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+7.0%	p95
Permit Growth	+14.8%	p76
Permits/1K Pop	0.62	p0
Affordability	0.20	p4
Employment	-1.1%	p94
Net AGI Migration	-$45K	p78

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+14.8%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY+9.6%

Days on Market YoY-13.7%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 10 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Peoria's counties diverge significantly — Woodford County (Elevated) contrasts sharply with Marshall County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High29.0Limited data

4 of 5 counties scored

Peoria, IL shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Woodford County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by price momentum), while Marshall County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Peoria County	67	Elevated	25.0%	67	33	100
Tazewell County	67	Elevated	25.0%	33	100	67
Woodford CountyRisk Driver	67	Elevated	25.0%	100	67	33
Stark CountyUnscored	50	Average	—	—	—	—
Marshall CountyStabilizer	0	Low Risk	25.0%	0	0	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Exp	54	95	61	4	90	77
2025-09	Exp	55	92	61	4	97	77
2025-08	Rec	56	92	61	4	99	77
2025-06	Rec	56	97	61	4	96	77
2025-03	Rec	46	55	61	3	82	77
2025-02	Hyp	43	60	61	3	57	77
2024-12	Rec	46	69	61	3	64	77
2024-11	Hyp	43	49	61	3	68	77
2024-10	Rec	37	32	61	3	48	77
2024-09	Ress	39	51	61	3	44	77
2024-07	Ress	40	82	61	3	19	77
2024-06	Hyp	46	68	61	2	71	77
2024-05	Exp	45	72	61	2	56	77
2024-03	Hyp	40	59	61	2	41	77
2024-02	Exp	44	59	61	2	65	77
2023-12	Exp	46	89	61	4	42	77
2023-09	Exp	46	64	61	3	70	77
2023-08	Rec	50	77	61	3	84	77
2023-06	Rec	46	67	61	3	66	77
2023-03	Rec	43	51	61	4	67	77
2023-02	Exp	44	48	61	4	74	77
2022-12	Exp	46	47	61	4	84	77
2022-09	Exp	34	7	61	3	59	77
2022-06	Exp	30	4	61	3	35	77
2022-03	Rec	35	3	61	3	64	77
2022-01	Rec	34	2	61	3	60	77
2021-11	Exp	36	3	61	4	67	80
2021-09	Exp	38	5	61	5	74	80
2021-06	Rec	37	4	61	7	72	80
2021-04	Rec	39	5	61	7	80	80
2021-03	Exp	37	9	61	8	65	80
2021-01	Exp	37	8	61	8	64	80
2020-12	Rec	36	7	61	3	68	78
2020-10	Rec	35	8	61	3	59	78
2020-07	Rec	38	15	61	4	71	78
2020-04	Rec	35	15	61	5	51	78
2020-01	Exp	40	5	61	5	91	78
2019-11	Exp	42	4	61	5	97	85
2019-08	Exp	43	8	61	5	97	85
2019-06	Rec	42	11	61	5	91	85
2019-04	Rec	42	5	61	5	94	85
2019-03	Exp	42	7	61	6	96	85
2019-01	Exp	41	4	61	6	91	85

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022