Peoria, IL

NeutralTier 1CBSA 37900Compare

Risk Rank: #206 of 274Month: 2026-06Score change (12m):↓ -13

43score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Peoria's housing market shows average risk, ranking 206th of 274 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring. Inventory accumulating faster than demand — the market is shifting toward buyers.

Peoria experienced a market correction from late 2024 through late 2024. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Inventory is elevated (+20% YoY) and days on market are up -10% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase·from Expansion

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by price momentum and permit growth, while permits per capita provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Price Momentump82

12-month HPI change

Permit Growthp68

YoY permit change

Migrationp62

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+20% YoY) and days on market are up -10% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch↑

Active Listings YoY

+20.1%p70

Days on Market YoY

-10.3%p28

Months in status1

Data through Jun 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+2.1%p87

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumHigh Risk

+2.6%p82

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthElevated

+9.5%p68

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaLow Risk

0.63p0

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk

0.21p3

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentNeutral

+0.5%p44

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationElevated

-$7Kp62

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

N/ANormal

Rate Change (YoY)

-5 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+194 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.1 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+9.5%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Permit activity is typical but demand is softening. Price pressure is forming on the demand side — this is not a supply problem.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Limited data

Largest SectorManufacturing 40.6%

5 of 20 sectors disclosed · QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Peoria's 5 counties show similar risk profiles — the metro-level score is broadly representative.

Low0.0Limited data

5 of 5 counties scored

Peoria, IL shows Low internal divergence — county-level differences are minor and the metro composite is broadly representative. Woodford County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permit growth), while Peoria County anchors the lower end (Elevated).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Peoria CountyStabilizer	62	Elevated	49.2%	25	75	100
Tazewell County	62	Elevated	35.7%	50	50	75
Woodford CountyRisk Driver	62	Elevated	10.5%	0	100	50
Marshall County<5%	38	Below Average	3.2%	75	25	25
Stark County<5%	25	Low Risk	1.5%	100	0	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-05	Exp	47	71	81	3	64	62
2025-11	Exp	54	95	61	4	90	77
2025-08	Rec	56	92	61	4	99	77
2025-06	Rec	56	97	61	4	96	77
2025-03	Rec	46	55	61	3	82	77
2025-02	Hyp	43	60	61	3	57	77
2024-12	Rec	46	69	61	3	64	77
2024-11	Hyp	43	49	61	3	68	77
2024-10	Rec	37	32	61	3	48	77
2024-09	Ress	39	51	61	3	44	77
2024-07	Ress	40	82	61	3	19	77
2024-06	Hyp	46	68	61	2	71	77
2024-05	Exp	45	72	61	2	56	77
2024-03	Hyp	40	59	61	2	41	77
2024-02	Exp	44	59	61	2	65	77
2023-12	Exp	46	89	61	4	42	77
2023-09	Exp	46	64	61	3	70	77
2023-08	Rec	50	77	61	3	84	77
2023-06	Rec	46	67	61	3	66	77
2023-03	Rec	43	51	61	4	67	77
2023-02	Exp	44	48	61	4	74	77
2022-12	Exp	46	47	61	4	84	77
2022-09	Exp	34	7	61	3	59	77
2022-06	Exp	30	4	61	3	35	77
2022-03	Rec	35	3	61	3	64	77
2022-01	Rec	34	2	61	3	60	77
2021-11	Exp	36	3	61	4	67	80
2021-09	Exp	38	5	61	5	74	80
2021-06	Rec	37	4	61	7	72	80
2021-04	Rec	39	5	61	7	80	80
2021-03	Exp	37	9	61	8	65	80
2021-01	Exp	37	8	61	8	64	80
2020-12	Rec	36	7	61	3	68	78
2020-10	Rec	35	8	61	3	59	78
2020-07	Rec	38	15	61	4	71	78
2020-04	Rec	35	15	61	5	51	78
2020-01	Exp	40	5	61	5	91	78
2019-11	Exp	42	4	61	5	97	85
2019-08	Exp	43	8	61	5	97	85
2019-06	Rec	42	11	61	5	91	85
2019-04	Rec	42	5	61	5	94	85
2019-03	Exp	42	7	61	6	96	85
2019-01	Exp	41	4	61	6	91	85

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-06

Income2024

Employment2026-06

Migration2023