Peoria, IL

NeutralTier 1CBSA 37900Compare

Risk Rank: #51 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +12

58score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Peoria's housing market shows average risk, ranking 51st of 287 metros. The market has been in Expansion for 4 months. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Peoria experienced a market correction from late 2024 through late 2024. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +10% pace with homes taking -14% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

4 months in current phase·from Expansion

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by employment and price momentum, while permits per capita provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Employmentp94

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Price Momentump93

12-month HPI change

Migrationp80

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +10% pace with homes taking -14% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY

+9.6%p59

Days on Market YoY

-13.7%p24

Months in status10

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.1%p67

Months in status38

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumHigh Risk

+6.0%p93

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthElevated

+14.8%p75

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaLow Risk

0.62p0

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk

0.20p3

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentHigh Risk

-1.1%p94

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationElevated

-$45Kp80

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-76 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+14.8%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Limited data

Largest SectorManufacturing 40.6%

5 of 20 sectors disclosed · QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Peoria's 5 counties show moderate divergence — Tazewell County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Peoria County anchors the lower end.

Moderate10.8Limited data

5 of 5 counties scored

Peoria, IL shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Tazewell County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permit growth), while Peoria County anchors the lower end (Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Tazewell CountyRisk Driver	71	Elevated	35.7%	33	100	75
Woodford County	62	Elevated	10.5%	100	50	50
Stark County<5%	58	Elevated	1.5%	—	75	0
Peoria CountyStabilizer	48	Average	49.2%	67	25	100
Marshall County<5%	12	Low Risk	3.2%	0	0	25

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Exp	54	95	61	4	90	77
2025-09	Exp	55	92	61	4	97	77
2025-08	Rec	56	92	61	4	99	77
2025-06	Rec	56	97	61	4	96	77
2025-03	Rec	46	55	61	3	82	77
2025-02	Hyp	43	60	61	3	57	77
2024-12	Rec	46	69	61	3	64	77
2024-11	Hyp	43	49	61	3	68	77
2024-10	Rec	37	32	61	3	48	77
2024-09	Ress	39	51	61	3	44	77
2024-07	Ress	40	82	61	3	19	77
2024-06	Hyp	46	68	61	2	71	77
2024-05	Exp	45	72	61	2	56	77
2024-03	Hyp	40	59	61	2	41	77
2024-02	Exp	44	59	61	2	65	77
2023-12	Exp	46	89	61	4	42	77
2023-09	Exp	46	64	61	3	70	77
2023-08	Rec	50	77	61	3	84	77
2023-06	Rec	46	67	61	3	66	77
2023-03	Rec	43	51	61	4	67	77
2023-02	Exp	44	48	61	4	74	77
2022-12	Exp	46	47	61	4	84	77
2022-09	Exp	34	7	61	3	59	77
2022-06	Exp	30	4	61	3	35	77
2022-03	Rec	35	3	61	3	64	77
2022-01	Rec	34	2	61	3	60	77
2021-11	Exp	36	3	61	4	67	80
2021-09	Exp	38	5	61	5	74	80
2021-06	Rec	37	4	61	7	72	80
2021-04	Rec	39	5	61	7	80	80
2021-03	Exp	37	9	61	8	65	80
2021-01	Exp	37	8	61	8	64	80
2020-12	Rec	36	7	61	3	68	78
2020-10	Rec	35	8	61	3	59	78
2020-07	Rec	38	15	61	4	71	78
2020-04	Rec	35	15	61	5	51	78
2020-01	Exp	40	5	61	5	91	78
2019-11	Exp	42	4	61	5	97	85
2019-08	Exp	43	8	61	5	97	85
2019-06	Rec	42	11	61	5	91	85
2019-04	Rec	42	5	61	5	94	85
2019-03	Exp	42	7	61	6	96	85
2019-01	Exp	41	4	61	6	91	85

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022