Rankings/Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

NeutralTier 1CBSA 37860Compare

Risk Rank: #55 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— -1

58score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Pensacola experienced a market correction from early 2025 through early 2025. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 7 months·Previously: Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Pensacola's housing market shows average risk, ranking 55th of 287 metros. The market has been in Recovery for 7 months. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by affordability and employment. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Affordability

p83 (elevated risk)

Mortgage payment / income

Employment

p77 (elevated risk)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permits per Capita

p72 (moderate)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (-2% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

-1.8%p47

Days on Market YoY

-3.5%p41

Months in status7

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.5%p73

Months in status19

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum42

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth43

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita72

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability83

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment77

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration28

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+2.0%	p42
Permit Growth	-4.2%	p43
Permits/1K Pop	6.32	p72
Affordability	0.32	p83
Employment	-0.3%	p77
Net AGI Migration	+$84K	p28

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-4.2%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Builders are pulling back but demand remains healthy. A supply constraint could form — fewer new units entering a market that is still absorbing well.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY-1.8%

Days on Market YoY-3.5%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 7 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	61	27	76	83	78	29
2025-09	Rec	59	13	76	83	77	29
2025-06	Rec	68	62	76	87	82	29
2025-05	Hyp	61	45	76	87	54	29
2025-04	Rec	58	33	76	87	52	29
2025-03	Ress	50	1	76	82	39	29
2025-01	Hyp	52	6	76	82	47	29
2024-11	Hyp	62	35	76	84	74	29
2024-08	Hyp	60	24	76	85	72	29
2024-06	Ress	65	59	76	87	63	29
2024-04	Ress	66	58	76	87	74	29
2024-01	Hyp	55	19	76	85	46	29
2023-12	Rec	49	17	76	67	33	29
2023-10	Rec	48	14	76	67	29	29
2023-09	Hyp	51	31	76	70	26	29
2023-08	Rec	50	34	76	70	20	29
2023-06	Hyp	54	37	76	72	37	29
2023-04	Ress	52	34	76	72	29	29
2023-02	Ress	54	45	76	72	31	29
2023-01	Hyp	57	46	76	72	45	29
2022-12	Ress	64	68	76	88	52	29
2022-10	Ress	64	76	76	88	44	29
2022-09	Hyp	65	75	76	85	50	29
2022-08	Ress	67	77	76	85	61	29
2022-06	Ress	62	83	76	85	27	29
2022-04	Exp	67	86	76	85	54	29
2022-02	Rec	72	87	76	85	79	29
2021-12	Rec	69	84	76	80	69	30
2021-11	Exp	68	85	76	80	60	30
2021-09	Exp	68	88	76	79	62	30
2021-06	Exp	74	87	76	77	100	30
2021-05	Rec	74	89	76	77	95	30
2021-03	Rec	62	93	76	77	22	30
2021-02	Exp	60	91	76	77	15	30
2020-12	Exp	59	90	76	87	18	10
2020-11	Rec	60	92	76	87	18	10
2020-09	Rec	58	91	76	86	8	10
2020-06	Exp	54	80	76	84	3	10
2020-04	Exp	55	77	76	84	11	10
2020-03	Rec	59	93	76	85	16	10
2020-01	Rec	61	98	76	85	24	10
2019-11	Exp	61	95	76	84	12	26
2019-09	Exp	63	90	76	84	29	26
2019-08	Rec	63	89	76	84	28	26
2019-06	Rec	63	93	76	85	22	26
2019-03	Exp	58	84	76	81	8	26
2019-01	Exp	60	91	76	81	9	26

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022