Rankings/Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL

NeutralTier 1CBSA 37860Compare

Risk Rank: #39 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— +1

60score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Pensacola's housing market shows average risk, ranking 39th of 287 metros. The market has been in Recovery for 7 months. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Pensacola experienced a market correction from early 2025 through early 2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is roughly flat (-2% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

7 months in current phase·from Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by affordability and employment, while migration provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Affordabilityp84

Mortgage payment / income

Employmentp77

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permits per Capitap71

Permits per 1,000 residents

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (-2% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

-1.8%p47

Days on Market YoY

-3.5%p41

Months in status7

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-0.7%p54

Months in status19

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumNeutral

+3.3%p54

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthNeutral

-4.2%p43

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaElevated

6.32p71

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityHigh Risk

0.33p84

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentElevated

-0.3%p77

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationBelow Avg

+$48Kp32

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-4.2%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Builders are pulling back but demand remains healthy. A supply constraint could form — fewer new units entering a market that is still absorbing well.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorHealth Care 16%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	61	27	76	83	78	29
2025-09	Rec	59	13	76	83	77	29
2025-06	Rec	68	62	76	87	82	29
2025-05	Hyp	61	45	76	87	54	29
2025-04	Rec	58	33	76	87	52	29
2025-03	Ress	50	1	76	82	39	29
2025-01	Hyp	52	6	76	82	47	29
2024-11	Hyp	62	35	76	84	74	29
2024-08	Hyp	60	24	76	85	72	29
2024-06	Ress	65	59	76	87	63	29
2024-04	Ress	66	58	76	87	74	29
2024-01	Hyp	55	19	76	85	46	29
2023-12	Rec	49	17	76	67	33	29
2023-10	Rec	48	14	76	67	29	29
2023-09	Hyp	51	31	76	70	26	29
2023-08	Rec	50	34	76	70	20	29
2023-06	Hyp	54	37	76	72	37	29
2023-04	Ress	52	34	76	72	29	29
2023-02	Ress	54	45	76	72	31	29
2023-01	Hyp	57	46	76	72	45	29
2022-12	Ress	64	68	76	88	52	29
2022-10	Ress	64	76	76	88	44	29
2022-09	Hyp	65	75	76	85	50	29
2022-08	Ress	67	77	76	85	61	29
2022-06	Ress	62	83	76	85	27	29
2022-04	Exp	67	86	76	85	54	29
2022-02	Rec	72	87	76	85	79	29
2021-12	Rec	69	84	76	80	69	30
2021-11	Exp	68	85	76	80	60	30
2021-09	Exp	68	88	76	79	62	30
2021-06	Exp	74	87	76	77	100	30
2021-05	Rec	74	89	76	77	95	30
2021-03	Rec	62	93	76	77	22	30
2021-02	Exp	60	91	76	77	15	30
2020-12	Exp	59	90	76	87	18	10
2020-11	Rec	60	92	76	87	18	10
2020-09	Rec	58	91	76	86	8	10
2020-06	Exp	54	80	76	84	3	10
2020-04	Exp	55	77	76	84	11	10
2020-03	Rec	59	93	76	85	16	10
2020-01	Rec	61	98	76	85	24	10
2019-11	Exp	61	95	76	84	12	26
2019-09	Exp	63	90	76	84	29	26
2019-08	Rec	63	89	76	84	28	26
2019-06	Rec	63	93	76	85	22	26
2019-03	Exp	58	84	76	81	8	26
2019-01	Exp	60	91	76	81	9	26

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023