Rankings/Panama City-Panama City Beach, FL

Panama City-Panama City Beach, FL

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 37460Compare

Risk Rank: #6 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +22

70score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Panama City experienced a market correction from early 2024 through mid-2024. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Expansion for 1 month·Previously: Recovery

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Panama City's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 6th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Elevated, driven primarily by price momentum and employment. The market is in Expansion phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is compressed.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Price Momentum

p96 (highest risk decile)

12-month HPI change

Employment

p95 (highest risk decile)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permits per Capita

p93 (highest risk decile)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +6% pace with homes taking +4% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

+5.8%p55

Days on Market YoY

+3.9%p56

Months in status5

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Compressed—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-5.9%p7

Months in status6

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum96

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth25

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita93

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability84

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment95

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration30

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+7.0%	p96
Permit Growth	-15.5%	p25
Permits/1K Pop	10.65	p93
Affordability	0.32	p84
Employment	-1.3%	p95
Net AGI Migration	+$67K	p30

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-15.5%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY+5.8%

Days on Market YoY+3.9%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 5 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	79	96	70	83	99	30
2025-09	Rec	77	87	70	83	96	30
2025-06	Hyp	63	6	70	78	98	30
2025-04	Hyp	59	19	70	78	64	30
2025-01	Hyp	47	5	70	76	7	30
2024-10	Hyp	57	31	70	79	37	30
2024-07	Hyp	48	5	70	82	7	30
2024-04	Ress	47	1	70	80	6	30
2024-02	Ress	50	4	70	82	19	30
2023-12	Hyp	51	3	70	85	23	30
2023-10	Exp	54	12	70	85	30	30
2023-09	Rec	63	76	70	91	15	30
2023-07	Rec	59	50	70	91	17	30
2023-06	Hyp	64	83	70	92	16	30
2023-04	Hyp	67	92	70	92	23	30
2023-03	Ress	64	88	70	91	13	30
2023-01	Ress	66	92	70	91	17	30
2022-10	Ress	62	73	70	89	16	30
2022-09	Hyp	69	90	70	90	40	30
2022-07	Ress	70	90	70	90	45	30
2022-05	Ress	72	81	70	88	68	30
2022-04	Exp	71	79	70	88	67	30
2022-02	Exp	74	69	70	85	94	30
2022-01	Rec	72	68	70	85	88	30
2021-11	Rec	71	64	70	87	79	31
2021-10	Exp	69	60	70	87	72	31
2021-08	Exp	61	51	70	87	34	31
2021-05	Rec	62	49	70	87	45	31
2021-03	Rec	53	31	70	88	5	31
2021-02	Exp	54	36	70	88	5	31
2020-12	Exp	64	80	70	86	5	46
2020-11	Rec	64	85	70	86	6	46
2020-09	Rec	64	77	70	84	10	46
2020-06	Ress	69	98	70	87	20	46
2020-04	Ress	76	98	70	87	60	46
2020-03	Hyp	75	89	70	84	68	46
2020-02	Rec	78	84	70	84	88	46
2020-01	Hyp	71	68	70	84	62	46
2019-11	Hyp	66	34	70	84	21	91
2019-10	Exp	68	29	70	84	41	91
2019-08	Exp	88	90	70	82	100	91
2019-06	Rec	89	98	70	83	100	91
2019-04	Rec	89	97	70	83	100	91
2019-03	Exp	90	98	70	84	100	91
2019-01	Exp	89	95	70	84	100	91

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022