Rankings/Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

NeutralTier 1CBSA 37340Compare

Risk Rank: #137 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +10

50score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Palm Bay experienced a market correction from early 2024 through mid-2024. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 5 months·Previously: Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Palm Bay's housing market shows average risk, ranking 137th of 287 metros. The market has been in Recovery for 5 months. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by affordability and permits per capita. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Affordability

p90 (highest risk decile)

Mortgage payment / income

Permits per Capita

p80 (elevated risk)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Employment

p55 (moderate)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (-1% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

-1.0%p48

Days on Market YoY

+4.0%p56

Months in status5

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.8%p76

Months in status24

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum13

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth54

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita80

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability90

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment55

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration7

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	-0.1%	p13
Permit Growth	-0.0%	p54
Permits/1K Pop	7.30	p80
Affordability	0.34	p90
Employment	+0.1%	p55
Net AGI Migration	+$692K	p7

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

+0.0%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Builders are pulling back but demand remains healthy. A supply constraint could form — fewer new units entering a market that is still absorbing well.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY-1.0%

Days on Market YoY+4.0%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 5 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	40	8	9	90	48	7
2025-09	Rec	42	8	9	90	60	7
2025-07	Hyp	43	18	9	90	56	7
2025-05	Hyp	36	6	9	88	28	7
2025-02	Hyp	37	9	9	89	31	7
2024-11	Hyp	39	9	9	91	38	7
2024-08	Hyp	40	3	9	90	51	7
2024-06	Ress	41	12	9	90	51	7
2024-04	Ress	40	16	9	90	40	7
2024-01	Ress	39	11	9	92	39	7
2023-12	Hyp	39	26	9	88	26	7
2023-10	Hyp	38	33	9	88	15	7
2023-08	Rec	37	30	9	89	11	7
2023-07	Hyp	37	30	9	89	10	7
2023-05	Hyp	38	35	9	89	11	7
2023-03	Ress	48	77	9	90	26	7
2023-01	Ress	48	87	9	90	15	7
2022-10	Ress	51	92	9	89	32	7
2022-07	Ress	59	93	9	89	78	7
2022-05	Hyp	58	94	9	87	72	7
2022-04	Exp	58	94	9	87	75	7
2022-02	Exp	57	92	9	84	74	7
2022-01	Rec	57	93	9	84	69	7
2021-11	Rec	55	92	9	89	51	10
2021-10	Exp	52	91	9	89	37	10
2021-08	Exp	53	88	9	88	47	10
2021-05	Rec	54	81	9	86	63	10
2021-03	Rec	42	61	9	86	5	10
2021-01	Exp	43	69	9	86	7	10
2020-11	Exp	47	79	9	93	15	10
2020-10	Rec	48	84	9	93	15	10
2020-08	Rec	47	83	9	94	9	10
2020-05	Exp	49	91	9	95	9	10
2020-03	Exp	50	85	9	95	20	10
2020-02	Rec	50	84	9	95	22	10
2019-12	Rec	45	64	9	94	16	9
2019-09	Rec	44	65	9	93	9	9
2019-06	Rec	42	57	9	93	6	9
2019-03	Hyp	45	69	9	94	9	9
2019-01	Hyp	44	69	9	94	4	9

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022