Rankings/Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL

NeutralTier 1CBSA 37340Compare

Risk Rank: #111 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):↑ +10

52score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Palm Bay's housing market shows average risk, ranking 111th of 273 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Inventory is growing moderately (-17% YoY) with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Palm Bay experienced a market correction from early 2024 through mid-2024. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is declining (-17% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by affordability and permits per capita, while migration provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Affordabilityp89

Mortgage payment / income

Permits per Capitap81

Permits per 1,000 residents

Permit Growthp56

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is declining (-17% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

-17.5%p28

Days on Market YoY

-5.3%p36

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-0.2%p61

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumBelow Avg

+1.5%p35

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthNeutral

+3.6%p56

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaHigh Risk

7.71p81

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityHigh Risk

0.36p89

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentNeutral

+0.5%p47

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationLow Risk

+$506Kp7

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

+3.6%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Builders are pulling back but demand remains healthy. A supply constraint could form — fewer new units entering a market that is still absorbing well.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Diversified

Largest SectorManufacturing 14.4%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Rec	51	6	58	88	70	7
2025-12	Rec	50	17	53	89	56	7
2025-09	Rec	42	8	9	90	60	7
2025-07	Hyp	43	18	9	90	56	7
2025-05	Hyp	36	6	9	88	28	7
2025-02	Hyp	37	9	9	89	31	7
2024-11	Hyp	39	9	9	91	38	7
2024-08	Hyp	40	3	9	90	51	7
2024-06	Ress	41	12	9	90	51	7
2024-04	Ress	40	16	9	90	40	7
2024-01	Ress	39	11	9	92	39	7
2023-12	Hyp	39	26	9	88	26	7
2023-10	Hyp	38	33	9	88	15	7
2023-08	Rec	37	30	9	89	11	7
2023-07	Hyp	37	30	9	89	10	7
2023-05	Hyp	38	35	9	89	11	7
2023-03	Ress	48	77	9	90	26	7
2023-01	Ress	48	87	9	90	15	7
2022-10	Ress	51	92	9	89	32	7
2022-07	Ress	59	93	9	89	78	7
2022-05	Hyp	58	94	9	87	72	7
2022-04	Exp	58	94	9	87	75	7
2022-02	Exp	57	92	9	84	74	7
2022-01	Rec	57	93	9	84	69	7
2021-11	Rec	55	92	9	89	51	10
2021-10	Exp	52	91	9	89	37	10
2021-08	Exp	53	88	9	88	47	10
2021-05	Rec	54	81	9	86	63	10
2021-03	Rec	42	61	9	86	5	10
2021-01	Exp	43	69	9	86	7	10
2020-11	Exp	47	79	9	93	15	10
2020-10	Rec	48	84	9	93	15	10
2020-08	Rec	47	83	9	94	9	10
2020-05	Exp	49	91	9	95	9	10
2020-03	Exp	50	85	9	95	20	10
2020-02	Rec	50	84	9	95	22	10
2019-12	Rec	45	64	9	94	16	9
2019-09	Rec	44	65	9	93	9	9
2019-06	Rec	42	57	9	93	6	9
2019-03	Hyp	45	69	9	94	9	9
2019-01	Hyp	44	69	9	94	4	9

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023