Rankings/Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA

Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 37100Compare

Risk Rank: #217 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— -3

43score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Oxnard experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Hypersupply for 7 months·Previously: Hypersupply

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Oxnard's housing market shows average risk, ranking 217th of 287 metros. The market has been in Hypersupply for 7 months. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by permit growth and employment. The market is in Hypersupply phase. Liquidity is stress and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Permit Growth

p92 (highest risk decile)

YoY permit change

Employment

p81 (elevated risk)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration

p26 (below average risk)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +28% YoY with days on market up +17% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress—

Active Listings YoY

+27.9%p77

Days on Market YoY

+16.9%p77

Months in status12

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+1.5%p83

Months in status26

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum19

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth92

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita19

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability22

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment81

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration26

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+0.4%	p19
Permit Growth	+44.1%	p92
Permits/1K Pop	1.91	p19
Affordability	0.24	p22
Employment	-0.4%	p81
Net AGI Migration	+$97K	p26

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Elevated

YoY Permit Growth

+44.1%Above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Above-normal supply meeting deteriorating demand. Correction risk is rising — new units are entering a market where existing inventory is already building.

Liquidity

Stress—

Active Listings YoY+27.9%

Days on Market YoY+16.9%

AssessmentSignificant supply buildup

Stress for 12 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Hyp	42	24	85	21	78	26
2025-09	Hyp	43	22	85	21	85	26
2025-06	Hyp	40	26	85	22	64	26
2025-05	Ress	41	31	85	22	62	26
2025-03	Ress	48	61	85	26	73	26
2024-12	Rec	46	40	85	24	79	26
2024-11	Hyp	44	39	85	24	74	26
2024-09	Hyp	48	57	85	25	76	26
2024-07	Ress	44	63	85	25	46	26
2024-05	Ress	46	44	85	23	78	26
2024-03	Exp	43	43	85	24	59	26
2024-01	Exp	37	33	85	24	37	26
2023-10	Exp	50	59	85	28	83	26
2023-08	Rec	44	29	85	26	78	26
2023-06	Rec	45	23	85	28	88	26
2023-03	Hyp	46	23	85	30	94	26
2023-01	Hyp	46	23	85	30	92	26
2022-12	Ress	44	10	85	27	94	26
2022-10	Ress	42	10	85	27	83	26
2022-09	Hyp	43	24	85	33	72	26
2022-08	Ress	42	28	85	33	60	26
2022-06	Ress	42	49	85	38	37	26
2022-05	Hyp	41	50	85	38	29	26
2022-04	Exp	42	50	85	38	31	26
2022-02	Exp	38	50	85	38	12	26
2021-12	Rec	36	49	85	35	15	17
2021-10	Rec	37	50	85	36	16	17
2021-09	Exp	37	48	85	35	18	17
2021-07	Exp	40	44	85	35	38	17
2021-04	Exp	38	30	85	34	44	17
2021-03	Rec	44	26	85	35	80	17
2021-01	Rec	45	26	85	35	89	17
2020-12	Exp	42	19	85	30	80	18
2020-10	Exp	42	20	85	30	82	18
2020-09	Rec	43	19	85	32	86	18
2020-07	Rec	42	15	85	32	81	18
2020-05	Exp	41	14	85	33	77	18
2020-03	Exp	35	13	85	35	39	18
2020-01	Rec	33	9	85	35	35	18
2019-11	Rec	35	7	85	34	44	21
2019-08	Rec	36	9	85	37	47	21
2019-05	Rec	37	7	85	38	55	21
2019-03	Ress	42	18	85	41	68	21
2019-01	Ress	43	22	85	41	73	21

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022