Rankings/Oshkosh-Neenah, WI

Oshkosh-Neenah, WI

NeutralTier 1CBSA 36780Compare

Risk Rank: #69 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -10

56score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Oshkosh's housing market shows average risk, ranking 69th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recession. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory. Deep correction with severe liquidity stress — significant risk remains.

Oshkosh experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025.

Inventory has surged +75% YoY with days on market up +4% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

2 months in current phase·from Recession

Demand contraction with rising inventory pressure

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by price momentum and employment, while permits per capita provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Price Momentump82

12-month HPI change

Employmentp59

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migrationp56

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +75% YoY with days on market up +4% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↑

Active Listings YoY

+74.5%p96

Days on Market YoY

+3.9%p56

Months in status2

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-1.5%p42

Months in status15

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumHigh Risk

+4.9%p82

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthNeutral

-3.1%p47

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaNeutral

3.67p47

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityNeutral

0.27p48

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentNeutral

+0.1%p59

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationNeutral

-$399p56

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Active correction with weak transactions but available credit. Buyers can borrow — they're choosing not to at current prices.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-3.1%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Normal permit activity but demand has deteriorated significantly. The stress is from existing inventory and slowing absorption, not new construction.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorManufacturing 22.9%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Ress	66	88	90	49	76	48
2025-10	Rec	67	94	90	49	76	48
2025-08	Ress	69	90	90	49	91	48
2025-06	Hyp	62	54	90	41	94	48
2025-05	Rec	62	53	90	41	95	48
2025-03	Hyp	69	86	90	45	97	48
2025-02	Ress	69	90	90	45	95	48
2024-12	Ress	66	75	90	40	94	48
2024-11	Hyp	66	78	90	40	92	48
2024-10	Ress	66	81	90	40	89	48
2024-08	Ress	62	96	90	42	48	48
2024-07	Hyp	66	95	90	42	72	48
2024-06	Rec	69	96	90	42	91	48
2024-05	Ress	63	96	90	42	55	48
2024-04	Hyp	62	95	90	42	53	48
2024-02	Rec	58	74	90	37	54	48
2023-12	Rec	62	71	90	28	88	48
2023-11	Exp	64	81	90	28	87	48
2023-09	Exp	66	96	90	28	89	48
2023-08	Rec	67	97	90	28	93	48
2023-06	Rec	65	94	90	27	85	48
2023-04	Ress	62	81	90	27	82	48
2023-03	Hyp	66	92	90	28	89	48
2023-02	Rec	66	92	90	28	94	48
2023-01	Exp	65	89	90	28	90	48
2022-11	Exp	51	56	90	19	44	48
2022-10	Rec	55	55	90	19	69	48
2022-08	Rec	51	33	90	18	72	48
2022-07	Exp	54	35	90	18	86	48
2022-05	Exp	57	47	90	19	92	48
2022-04	Rec	57	38	90	19	98	48
2022-02	Rec	54	38	90	19	81	48
2021-11	Exp	56	27	89	19	99	57
2021-09	Exp	55	23	89	19	99	57
2021-06	Exp	56	48	89	19	78	57
2021-03	Exp	47	32	89	18	41	57
2020-12	Exp	48	51	89	23	26	54
2020-11	Rec	48	52	89	23	26	54
2020-09	Rec	42	28	89	23	11	54
2020-06	Rec	42	12	89	22	32	54
2020-05	Exp	44	23	89	22	33	54
2020-03	Exp	55	64	89	24	53	54
2020-02	Rec	56	57	89	24	67	54
2019-12	Rec	56	50	89	23	80	49
2019-10	Exp	58	57	89	23	84	49
2019-08	Exp	63	85	89	24	87	49
2019-05	Exp	54	23	89	22	93	49
2019-02	Exp	58	45	89	24	94	49
2019-01	Exp	60	54	89	24	97	49

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023