Rankings/Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL

Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL

NeutralTier 1CBSA 36740Compare

Risk Rank: #94 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— +4

54score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Orlando experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 4 months·Previously: Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Orlando's housing market shows average risk, ranking 94th of 287 metros. The market has been in Recovery for 4 months. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by permits per capita and affordability. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Permits per Capita

p92 (highest risk decile)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Affordability

p85 (elevated risk)

Mortgage payment / income

Permit Growth

p78 (elevated risk)

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +7% pace with homes taking +4% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+7.0%p56

Days on Market YoY

+3.8%p56

Months in status4

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.7%p75

Months in status12

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum12

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth78

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita92

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability85

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment51

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration4

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	-0.2%	p12
Permit Growth	+16.5%	p78
Permits/1K Pop	9.81	p92
Affordability	0.33	p85
Employment	+0.2%	p51
Net AGI Migration	+$1M	p4

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+16.5%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY+7.0%

Days on Market YoY+3.8%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 4 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Orlando's counties diverge significantly — Osceola County (High Risk) contrasts sharply with Lake County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High25.6Limited data

4 of 4 counties scored

Orlando, FL shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Osceola County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by price momentum), while Lake County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Osceola CountyRisk Driver	78	High Risk	25.0%	100	100	33
Orange County	67	Elevated	25.0%	67	33	100
Seminole County	45	Below Average	25.0%	0	67	67
Lake CountyStabilizer	11	Low Risk	25.0%	33	0	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	44	7	37	85	44	4
2025-09	Rec	43	7	37	85	39	4
2025-08	Hyp	42	13	37	85	30	4
2025-06	Hyp	44	33	37	85	17	4
2025-05	Ress	43	33	37	85	13	4
2025-03	Ress	43	35	37	86	12	4
2025-02	Hyp	43	33	37	86	12	4
2024-12	Hyp	50	74	37	88	11	4
2024-09	Hyp	43	37	37	85	12	4
2024-06	Ress	46	45	37	86	21	4
2024-04	Ress	46	56	37	86	11	4
2024-01	Hyp	45	48	37	86	10	4
2023-11	Exp	41	26	37	85	9	4
2023-09	Rec	43	35	37	86	12	4
2023-07	Rec	43	39	37	86	6	4
2023-06	Hyp	42	40	37	84	3	4
2023-04	Hyp	46	62	37	85	2	4
2023-02	Ress	50	82	37	86	3	4
2022-12	Ress	52	92	37	90	3	4
2022-09	Ress	51	91	37	88	2	4
2022-06	Ress	49	84	37	84	1	4
2022-05	Exp	49	84	37	84	0	4
2022-03	Exp	49	84	37	84	1	4
2022-01	Rec	48	80	37	84	1	4
2021-11	Rec	47	70	37	85	1	5
2021-10	Exp	47	67	37	85	1	5
2021-08	Exp	46	61	37	84	1	5
2021-05	Rec	46	58	37	85	7	5
2021-03	Rec	59	53	37	85	91	5
2021-01	Exp	58	50	37	85	89	5
2020-11	Exp	60	52	37	85	91	13
2020-10	Rec	62	55	37	85	96	13
2020-08	Rec	62	58	37	85	96	13
2020-05	Exp	63	65	37	85	91	13
2020-03	Exp	55	80	37	85	29	13
2020-02	Rec	53	73	37	85	25	13
2019-12	Rec	48	60	37	85	15	7
2019-09	Rec	53	85	37	86	17	7
2019-06	Rec	49	73	37	85	7	7
2019-05	Exp	49	72	37	85	9	7
2019-03	Exp	51	85	37	85	8	7
2019-02	Hyp	51	84	37	85	7	7
2019-01	Exp	52	83	37	85	14	7

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022