Rankings/Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL

Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 36740Compare

Risk Rank: #226 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):— -2

40score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Orlando's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 226th of 273 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Orlando experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is roughly flat (-2% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by affordability and permits per capita, while migration provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Affordabilityp85

Mortgage payment / income

Permits per Capitap80

Permits per 1,000 residents

Employmentp33

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (-2% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY

-2.5%p45

Days on Market YoY

-2.6%p42

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-0.3%p59

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumBelow Avg

+1.0%p25

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk

-21.8%p13

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaElevated

7.51p80

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityHigh Risk

0.35p85

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentBelow Avg

+0.8%p33

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationLow Risk

+$730Kp3

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-21.8%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Diversified

Largest SectorAccommodation & Food 13.6%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Orlando's counties diverge significantly — Orange County (Elevated) contrasts sharply with Seminole County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High18.8Limited data

4 of 4 counties scored

Orlando, FL shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Orange County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permit growth), while Seminole County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Orange CountyRisk Driver	75	Elevated	52.7%	67	100	100
Lake County	58	Elevated	14.8%	100	67	0
Osceola County	33	Below Average	15.3%	0	0	33
Seminole CountyStabilizer	33	Below Average	17.2%	33	33	67

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Rec	44	60	16	86	15	3
2025-12	Rec	55	21	78	86	51	3
2025-09	Rec	43	7	37	85	39	4
2025-08	Hyp	42	13	37	85	30	4
2025-06	Hyp	44	33	37	85	17	4
2025-05	Ress	43	33	37	85	13	4
2025-03	Ress	43	35	37	86	12	4
2025-02	Hyp	43	33	37	86	12	4
2024-12	Hyp	50	74	37	88	11	4
2024-09	Hyp	43	37	37	85	12	4
2024-06	Ress	46	45	37	86	21	4
2024-04	Ress	46	56	37	86	11	4
2024-01	Hyp	45	48	37	86	10	4
2023-11	Exp	41	26	37	85	9	4
2023-09	Rec	43	35	37	86	12	4
2023-07	Rec	43	39	37	86	6	4
2023-06	Hyp	42	40	37	84	3	4
2023-04	Hyp	46	62	37	85	2	4
2023-02	Ress	50	82	37	86	3	4
2022-12	Ress	52	92	37	90	3	4
2022-09	Ress	51	91	37	88	2	4
2022-06	Ress	49	84	37	84	1	4
2022-05	Exp	49	84	37	84	0	4
2022-03	Exp	49	84	37	84	1	4
2022-01	Rec	48	80	37	84	1	4
2021-11	Rec	47	70	37	85	1	5
2021-10	Exp	47	67	37	85	1	5
2021-08	Exp	46	61	37	84	1	5
2021-05	Rec	46	58	37	85	7	5
2021-03	Rec	59	53	37	85	91	5
2021-01	Exp	58	50	37	85	89	5
2020-11	Exp	60	52	37	85	91	13
2020-10	Rec	62	55	37	85	96	13
2020-08	Rec	62	58	37	85	96	13
2020-05	Exp	63	65	37	85	91	13
2020-03	Exp	55	80	37	85	29	13
2020-02	Rec	53	73	37	85	25	13
2019-12	Rec	48	60	37	85	15	7
2019-09	Rec	53	85	37	86	17	7
2019-06	Rec	49	73	37	85	7	7
2019-05	Exp	49	72	37	85	9	7
2019-03	Exp	51	85	37	85	8	7
2019-02	Hyp	51	84	37	85	7	7
2019-01	Exp	52	83	37	85	14	7

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023