Rankings/Omaha, NE-IA

Omaha, NE-IA

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 36540Compare

Risk Rank: #30 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— -2

62score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Omaha experienced a market correction from early 2024 through mid-2024. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 3 months·Previously: Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Omaha's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 30th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory is growing moderately (+14% YoY) with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Elevated, driven primarily by migration and employment. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Migration

p88 (elevated risk)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Employment

p87 (elevated risk)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permits per Capita

p74 (moderate)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +14% pace with homes taking -7% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

+13.8%p63

Days on Market YoY

-6.9%p34

Months in status2

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.6%p74

Months in status40

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum66

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth40

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita74

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability20

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment87

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration88

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+3.4%	p66
Permit Growth	-7.5%	p40
Permits/1K Pop	6.65	p74
Affordability	0.24	p20
Employment	-0.5%	p87
Net AGI Migration	-$124K	p88

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-7.5%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Builders are pulling back but demand remains healthy. A supply constraint could form — fewer new units entering a market that is still absorbing well.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY+13.8%

Days on Market YoY-6.9%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 2 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Omaha's 8 counties show moderate divergence — Pottawattamie County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Cass County anchors the lower end.

Moderate14.7

8 of 8 counties scored

Omaha, NE-IA shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Pottawattamie County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permit growth), while Cass County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Pottawattamie CountyRisk Driver	67	Elevated	12.5%	57	100	43
Washington County	57	Elevated	12.5%	71	29	71
Douglas County	57	Elevated	12.5%	14	57	100
Sarpy County	57	Elevated	12.5%	0	86	86
Saunders County	57	Elevated	12.5%	100	14	57
Harrison County	52	Average	12.5%	86	71	0
Mills County	33	Below Average	12.5%	43	43	14
Cass CountyStabilizer	19	Low Risk	12.5%	29	0	29

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	69	64	90	18	75	88
2025-09	Hyp	68	61	90	18	75	88
2025-07	Hyp	66	54	90	18	68	88
2025-04	Rec	61	27	90	17	66	88
2025-02	Hyp	64	39	90	18	69	88
2024-12	Rec	64	41	90	19	69	88
2024-11	Hyp	64	40	90	19	66	88
2024-09	Hyp	63	37	90	19	64	88
2024-06	Hyp	64	40	90	21	66	88
2024-05	Ress	60	36	90	21	50	88
2024-03	Ress	56	18	90	19	45	88
2024-02	Hyp	58	25	90	19	45	88
2023-12	Hyp	61	51	90	18	39	88
2023-10	Rec	63	68	90	18	36	88
2023-08	Rec	67	78	90	20	49	88
2023-07	Hyp	64	74	90	20	36	88
2023-05	Hyp	68	75	90	20	57	88
2023-02	Ress	72	64	90	21	89	88
2022-12	Ress	67	38	90	17	93	88
2022-09	Ress	68	40	90	18	93	88
2022-07	Exp	68	38	90	18	96	88
2022-05	Exp	68	37	90	18	98	88
2022-02	Rec	66	30	90	18	90	88
2021-12	Rec	65	36	90	17	93	78
2021-11	Exp	64	35	90	17	89	78
2021-09	Exp	64	38	90	17	86	78
2021-06	Exp	65	49	90	18	77	78
2021-05	Rec	66	46	90	18	89	78
2021-03	Rec	55	22	90	17	45	78
2021-02	Exp	54	22	90	17	42	78
2020-12	Exp	55	26	90	15	39	81
2020-11	Rec	56	30	90	15	46	81
2020-09	Rec	57	40	90	15	41	81
2020-06	Rec	58	44	90	15	44	81
2020-04	Exp	53	36	90	15	18	81
2020-02	Exp	63	64	90	16	51	81
2020-01	Rec	66	72	90	16	61	81
2019-11	Rec	66	72	90	15	60	78
2019-10	Exp	65	72	90	15	56	78
2019-08	Exp	64	73	90	15	53	78
2019-05	Rec	68	78	90	16	69	78
2019-03	Rec	66	55	90	15	77	78
2019-01	Rec	65	66	90	15	64	78

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022