Rankings/Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA

Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 36500Compare

Risk Rank: #16 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +39

66score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Olympia experienced a market correction from mid-2025 through late 2025.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recession for 8 months·Previously: Recession

Demand contraction with rising inventory pressure

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Olympia's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 16th of 287 metros. The market has been in Recession for 8 months. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory.

Executive Summary

Risk is Elevated, driven primarily by employment and permit growth. The market is in Recession phase. Liquidity is stress and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Employment

p98 (highest risk decile)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permit Growth

p91 (highest risk decile)

YoY permit change

Price Momentum

p82 (elevated risk)

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +53% YoY with days on market up +19% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↑

Active Listings YoY

+52.7%p91

Days on Market YoY

+19.1%p80

Months in status8

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.1%p67

Months in status15

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum82

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth91

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita67

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability29

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment98

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration27

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+4.3%	p82
Permit Growth	+41.4%	p91
Permits/1K Pop	5.58	p67
Affordability	0.25	p29
Employment	-1.6%	p98
Net AGI Migration	+$92K	p27

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Active correction with weak transactions but available credit. Buyers can borrow — they're choosing not to at current prices.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+41.4%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Normal permit activity but demand has deteriorated significantly. The stress is from existing inventory and slowing absorption, not new construction.

Liquidity

Stress↑

Active Listings YoY+52.7%

Days on Market YoY+19.1%

AssessmentSignificant supply buildup

Stress for 8 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Ress	46	66	18	28	90	27
2025-09	Ress	42	39	18	28	94	27
2025-06	Ress	29	17	18	28	37	27
2025-04	Hyp	29	42	18	28	11	27
2025-03	Exp	24	11	18	25	12	27
2025-01	Rec	22	9	18	25	5	27
2024-11	Rec	27	34	18	30	6	27
2024-10	Hyp	28	33	18	30	10	27
2024-08	Hyp	36	75	18	32	12	27
2024-05	Ress	28	29	18	28	15	27
2024-03	Ress	31	31	18	32	28	27
2024-02	Rec	28	21	18	32	21	27
2023-12	Exp	30	21	18	34	31	27
2023-10	Exp	32	41	18	34	22	27
2023-08	Rec	28	15	18	32	24	27
2023-06	Rec	26	9	18	33	21	27
2023-04	Hyp	26	10	18	33	20	27
2023-02	Hyp	32	23	18	40	36	27
2023-01	Ress	33	28	18	40	37	27
2022-11	Ress	26	10	18	35	15	27
2022-10	Hyp	27	11	18	35	22	27
2022-08	Ress	36	47	18	45	28	27
2022-06	Ress	41	68	18	49	33	27
2022-04	Exp	38	68	18	49	19	27
2022-03	Rec	36	62	18	46	12	27
2022-01	Rec	37	70	18	46	12	27
2021-12	Exp	38	76	18	47	11	28
2021-10	Exp	42	82	18	47	25	28
2021-07	Exp	49	89	18	48	61	28
2021-04	Exp	52	95	18	47	75	28
2021-01	Exp	49	95	18	43	59	28
2020-12	Rec	46	93	18	34	59	26
2020-10	Rec	45	95	18	34	51	26
2020-07	Rec	44	98	18	33	38	26
2020-06	Exp	44	96	18	30	47	26
2020-04	Exp	42	95	18	30	32	26
2020-03	Rec	42	98	18	29	35	26
2020-01	Rec	42	97	18	29	35	26
2019-12	Exp	41	94	18	27	40	20
2019-10	Exp	42	85	18	27	55	20
2019-09	Rec	41	80	18	24	57	20
2019-07	Rec	39	77	18	24	44	20
2019-04	Rec	41	91	18	24	45	20
2019-03	Ress	41	80	18	22	59	20
2019-01	Ress	41	77	18	22	58	20

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022