Rankings/Oklahoma City, OK

Oklahoma City, OK

NeutralTier 1CBSA 36420Compare

Risk Rank: #168 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -6

47score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Oklahoma City experienced a market correction from early 2025 through early 2025. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 3 months·Previously: Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Oklahoma City's housing market shows average risk, ranking 168th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory is growing moderately (+14% YoY) with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by permit growth and permits per capita. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Permit Growth

p76 (elevated risk)

YoY permit change

Permits per Capita

p68 (moderate)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Affordability

p51 (moderate)

Mortgage payment / income

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +14% pace with homes taking +12% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

+13.8%p63

Days on Market YoY

+12.1%p71

Months in status3

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+2.0%p87

Months in status29

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum26

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth76

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita68

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability51

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment38

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration21

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+0.8%	p26
Permit Growth	+15.7%	p76
Permits/1K Pop	5.72	p68
Affordability	0.27	p51
Employment	+0.5%	p38
Net AGI Migration	+$179K	p21

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Surge

YoY Permit Growth

+15.7%Far above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Permit activity is surging and demand is absorbing it. Both sides of the market are running hot — monitor for overheating if liquidity shifts.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY+13.8%

Days on Market YoY+12.1%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 3 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Oklahoma City's counties diverge significantly — Oklahoma County (High Risk) contrasts sharply with McClain County, making the metro average potentially misleading.

High21.0

7 of 7 counties scored

Oklahoma City, OK shows High internal divergence — the metro composite may obscure significant county-level differences. Oklahoma County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by affordability), while McClain County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Oklahoma CountyRisk Driver	78	High Risk	14.3%	67	67	100
Cleveland County	72	Elevated	14.3%	83	50	83
Grady County	61	Elevated	14.3%	33	100	50
Canadian County	45	Below Average	14.3%	50	17	67
Lincoln County	44	Below Average	14.3%	100	33	0
Logan County	39	Below Average	14.3%	0	83	33
McClain CountyStabilizer	11	Low Risk	14.3%	17	0	17

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	43	16	68	50	43	21
2025-09	Hyp	44	11	68	50	50	21
2025-07	Rec	41	11	68	50	32	21
2025-06	Hyp	44	33	68	55	27	21
2025-04	Rec	49	44	68	55	42	21
2025-03	Ress	44	25	68	52	37	21
2025-01	Rec	45	27	68	52	38	21
2024-11	Hyp	51	59	68	57	38	21
2024-09	Hyp	49	55	68	59	31	21
2024-07	Ress	47	42	68	59	31	21
2024-05	Ress	43	26	68	55	24	21
2024-03	Hyp	45	34	68	56	29	21
2024-01	Hyp	48	41	68	56	43	21
2023-11	Exp	42	28	68	51	20	21
2023-09	Rec	44	41	68	53	16	21
2023-07	Rec	46	53	68	53	17	21
2023-06	Hyp	47	65	68	55	13	21
2023-04	Hyp	46	67	68	55	6	21
2023-03	Ress	44	54	68	54	6	21
2023-01	Ress	42	42	68	54	7	21
2022-10	Ress	47	58	68	56	19	21
2022-09	Hyp	45	42	68	55	22	21
2022-08	Ress	45	44	68	55	22	21
2022-06	Ress	48	34	68	54	46	21
2022-05	Hyp	47	32	68	54	44	21
2022-04	Exp	48	31	68	54	53	21
2022-02	Exp	50	43	68	56	52	21
2021-11	Exp	52	32	69	55	65	29
2021-08	Exp	53	21	69	55	80	29
2021-05	Rec	54	22	69	56	86	29
2021-03	Rec	46	20	69	58	41	29
2020-12	Rec	46	23	69	51	42	32
2020-09	Rec	54	55	69	52	52	32
2020-06	Rec	49	53	69	51	26	32
2020-05	Exp	51	62	69	51	30	32
2020-03	Exp	58	76	69	53	59	32
2020-02	Rec	56	65	69	53	57	32
2019-12	Rec	48	36	69	51	35	34
2019-11	Exp	48	43	69	51	30	34
2019-09	Exp	53	70	69	53	31	34
2019-07	Rec	54	63	69	53	41	34
2019-05	Rec	44	18	69	51	33	34
2019-02	Rec	46	33	69	53	27	34
2019-01	Rec	48	35	69	53	34	34

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022