Ogden, UT

NeutralTier 1CBSA 36260Compare

Risk Rank: #137 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +8

50score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Ogden experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Hypersupply for 1 month·Previously: Recovery

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Ogden's housing market shows average risk, ranking 137th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by permit growth and permits per capita. The market is in Hypersupply phase. Liquidity is watch and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Permit Growth

p71 (moderate)

YoY permit change

Permits per Capita

p67 (moderate)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Employment

p60 (moderate)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+17% YoY) and days on market are up +5% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch—

Active Listings YoY

+17.0%p67

Days on Market YoY

+4.6%p57

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+0.5%p73

Months in status20

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum27

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth71

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita67

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability40

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment60

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration32

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+0.9%	p27
Permit Growth	+11.2%	p71
Permits/1K Pop	5.58	p67
Affordability	0.26	p40
Employment	+0.0%	p60
Net AGI Migration	+$64K	p32

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+11.2%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Permit activity is typical but demand is softening. Price pressure is forming on the demand side — this is not a supply problem.

Liquidity

Watch—

Active Listings YoY+17.0%

Days on Market YoY+4.6%

AssessmentInventory building

Watch for 1 monthData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Ogden's 3 counties show moderate divergence — Morgan County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Davis County anchors the lower end.

Moderate13.9Limited data

3 of 3 counties scored

Ogden, UT shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Morgan County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by price momentum), while Davis County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Morgan CountyRisk Driver	67	Elevated	33.3%	100	100	0
Weber County	50	Average	33.3%	0	50	100
Davis CountyStabilizer	33	Below Average	33.3%	50	0	50

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	46	26	40	38	83	32
2025-10	Hyp	48	26	40	38	95	32
2025-09	Rec	35	30	40	38	13	32
2025-07	Hyp	40	39	40	38	29	32
2025-05	Hyp	35	30	40	39	10	32
2025-04	Ress	34	26	40	39	10	32
2025-02	Ress	39	45	40	43	17	32
2025-01	Hyp	40	46	40	43	18	32
2024-12	Exp	42	40	40	44	36	32
2024-10	Exp	40	30	40	44	32	32
2024-07	Hyp	43	22	40	41	64	32
2024-06	Exp	45	31	40	45	63	32
2024-04	Exp	42	25	40	45	51	32
2024-01	Exp	40	21	40	44	44	32
2023-10	Exp	31	16	40	31	10	32
2023-08	Rec	30	4	40	31	16	32
2023-06	Rec	31	5	40	34	15	32
2023-05	Hyp	32	5	40	34	19	32
2023-03	Hyp	33	4	40	36	28	32
2023-02	Ress	33	5	40	36	28	32
2022-12	Ress	37	12	40	50	29	32
2022-09	Hyp	50	53	40	55	63	32
2022-08	Ress	50	56	40	55	54	32
2022-06	Ress	56	82	40	58	64	32
2022-03	Ress	60	91	40	57	81	32
2022-02	Rec	60	93	40	57	77	32
2021-12	Ress	60	95	40	63	81	24
2021-10	Ress	59	96	40	63	73	24
2021-09	Hyp	58	97	40	62	63	24
2021-08	Exp	57	97	40	62	60	24
2021-06	Rec	58	98	40	61	68	24
2021-04	Rec	58	98	40	61	64	24
2021-03	Exp	46	96	40	51	4	24
2021-01	Exp	46	97	40	51	4	24
2020-11	Rec	45	96	40	43	4	29
2020-09	Rec	44	95	40	41	3	29
2020-06	Rec	43	91	40	36	3	29
2020-05	Exp	43	92	40	36	3	29
2020-03	Exp	44	88	40	34	14	29
2020-02	Rec	45	88	40	34	18	29
2019-12	Rec	50	93	40	33	18	57
2019-09	Rec	49	93	40	32	14	57
2019-06	Rec	50	95	40	31	19	57
2019-04	Hyp	49	95	40	31	13	57
2019-03	Ress	51	94	40	30	23	57
2019-01	Ress	51	95	40	30	22	57

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022