Ogden, UT

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 36260Compare

Risk Rank: #34 of 274Month: 2026-06Score change (12m):↑ +21

61score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Ogden's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 34th of 274 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Ogden experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is roughly flat (+4% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

2 months in current phase·from Expansion

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by employment and permit growth, while migration provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Employmentp90

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permit Growthp85

YoY permit change

Permits per Capitap66

Permits per 1,000 residents

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (+4% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

+4.4%p53

Days on Market YoY

+8.7%p65

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-1.3%p44

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumNeutral

+1.6%p57

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthHigh Risk

+29.0%p85

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaElevated

5.57p66

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityBelow Avg

0.28p40

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentHigh Risk

-0.8%p90

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationBelow Avg

+$51Kp30

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

N/ANormal

Rate Change (YoY)

-5 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+194 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.1 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Elevated

YoY Permit Growth

+29.0%Above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Above-normal building activity with healthy demand. Balanced expansion — the market is absorbing new supply without stress.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorGovernment 21.7%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-05	Exp	59	58	75	40	91	30
2025-12	Hyp	51	36	71	41	60	30
2025-11	Rec	46	26	40	38	83	32
2025-10	Hyp	48	26	40	38	95	32
2025-09	Rec	35	30	40	38	13	32
2025-07	Hyp	40	39	40	38	29	32
2025-05	Hyp	35	30	40	39	10	32
2025-04	Ress	34	26	40	39	10	32
2025-02	Ress	39	45	40	43	17	32
2025-01	Hyp	40	46	40	43	18	32
2024-12	Exp	42	40	40	44	36	32
2024-10	Exp	40	30	40	44	32	32
2024-07	Hyp	43	22	40	41	64	32
2024-06	Exp	45	31	40	45	63	32
2024-04	Exp	42	25	40	45	51	32
2024-01	Exp	40	21	40	44	44	32
2023-10	Exp	31	16	40	31	10	32
2023-08	Rec	30	4	40	31	16	32
2023-06	Rec	31	5	40	34	15	32
2023-05	Hyp	32	5	40	34	19	32
2023-03	Hyp	33	4	40	36	28	32
2023-02	Ress	33	5	40	36	28	32
2022-12	Ress	37	12	40	50	29	32
2022-09	Hyp	50	53	40	55	63	32
2022-08	Ress	50	56	40	55	54	32
2022-06	Ress	56	82	40	58	64	32
2022-03	Ress	60	91	40	57	81	32
2022-02	Rec	60	93	40	57	77	32
2021-12	Ress	60	95	40	63	81	24
2021-10	Ress	59	96	40	63	73	24
2021-09	Hyp	58	97	40	62	63	24
2021-08	Exp	57	97	40	62	60	24
2021-06	Rec	58	98	40	61	68	24
2021-04	Rec	58	98	40	61	64	24
2021-03	Exp	46	96	40	51	4	24
2021-01	Exp	46	97	40	51	4	24
2020-11	Rec	45	96	40	43	4	29
2020-09	Rec	44	95	40	41	3	29
2020-06	Rec	43	91	40	36	3	29
2020-05	Exp	43	92	40	36	3	29
2020-03	Exp	44	88	40	34	14	29
2020-02	Rec	45	88	40	34	18	29
2019-12	Rec	50	93	40	33	18	57
2019-09	Rec	49	93	40	32	14	57
2019-06	Rec	50	95	40	31	19	57
2019-04	Hyp	49	95	40	31	13	57
2019-03	Ress	51	94	40	30	23	57
2019-01	Ress	51	95	40	30	22	57

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-06

Income2024

Employment2026-06

Migration2023