Odessa, TX

NeutralTier 1CBSA 36220Compare

Risk Rank: #133 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -17

50score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Odessa's housing market shows average risk, ranking 133rd of 287 metros. The market recently entered Recession. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory. Deep correction with severe liquidity stress — significant risk remains.

Odessa experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025.

Inventory has surged +45% YoY with days on market up +11% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

3 months in current phase·from Recession

Demand contraction with rising inventory pressure

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and affordability, while employment provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp77

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Affordabilityp74

Mortgage payment / income

Permits per Capitap66

Permits per 1,000 residents

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +45% YoY with days on market up +11% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↑

Active Listings YoY

+45.1%p89

Days on Market YoY

+10.7%p68

Months in status3

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-2.3%p30

Months in status8

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumBelow Avg

+2.5%p40

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-8.3%p38

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaElevated

5.59p66

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityElevated

0.30p74

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentLow Risk

+1.6%p8

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationElevated

-$31Kp77

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Active correction with weak transactions but available credit. Buyers can borrow — they're choosing not to at current prices.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-8.3%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Normal permit activity but demand has deteriorated significantly. The stress is from existing inventory and slowing absorption, not new construction.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Diversified

Largest SectorMining & Extraction 15.4%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Ress	53	6	88	65	7	83
2025-09	Exp	55	8	88	65	19	83
2025-08	Rec	59	9	88	65	42	83
2025-06	Rec	74	84	88	75	47	83
2025-05	Exp	72	83	88	75	33	83
2025-03	Exp	68	85	88	72	14	83
2024-12	Rec	67	74	88	71	19	83
2024-10	Rec	64	66	88	71	10	83
2024-09	Exp	63	64	88	69	4	83
2024-07	Exp	63	69	88	69	3	83
2024-04	Exp	70	90	88	69	20	83
2024-01	Exp	71	98	88	68	20	83
2023-10	Exp	69	65	88	84	25	83
2023-08	Rec	61	38	88	84	6	83
2023-06	Rec	56	19	88	78	3	83
2023-05	Exp	57	22	88	78	2	83
2023-03	Exp	53	5	88	74	2	83
2023-02	Rec	53	3	88	74	0	83
2022-12	Rec	53	6	88	72	1	83
2022-11	Exp	52	1	88	72	0	83
2022-09	Exp	53	1	88	76	1	83
2022-06	Exp	52	0	88	73	1	83
2022-04	Rec	52	0	88	73	1	83
2022-02	Rec	54	0	88	80	2	83
2021-11	Rec	57	0	88	93	3	90
2021-09	Hyp	57	0	88	95	3	90
2021-07	Hyp	61	0	88	95	24	90
2021-04	Hyp	74	0	88	97	100	90
2021-02	Ress	74	0	88	99	100	90
2020-12	Ress	72	1	88	89	100	89
2020-10	Hyp	72	2	88	89	99	89
2020-08	Hyp	74	10	88	92	100	89
2020-05	Ress	72	4	88	91	91	89
2020-03	Ress	84	69	88	94	99	89
2020-01	Hyp	87	85	88	94	99	89
2019-11	Hyp	87	98	88	95	91	86
2019-10	Ress	83	98	88	95	66	86
2019-08	Ress	76	99	88	95	19	86
2019-06	Hyp	73	99	88	95	5	86
2019-05	Rec	72	99	88	95	0	86
2019-03	Exp	72	100	88	93	0	86
2019-01	Exp	72	100	88	93	0	86

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023