Odessa, TX

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 36220Compare

Risk Rank: #9 of 274Month: 2026-06Score change (12m):↓ -6

68score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Odessa's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 9th of 274 metros. The market recently entered Recession. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory. Deep correction with severe liquidity stress — significant risk remains. Valuations are also showing some stretch.

Odessa experienced a market correction from late 2025 through late 2025.

Inventory has surged +123% YoY with days on market up +11% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Home prices are outpacing rents (-5.0% rent-price ratio change), indicating some valuation compression.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase·from Hypersupply

Demand contraction with rising inventory pressure

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permit growth and permits per capita, while price momentum provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permit Growthp78

YoY permit change

Permits per Capitap77

Permits per 1,000 residents

Migrationp77

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory has surged +123% YoY with days on market up +11% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.

Liquidity

Stress↑

Active Listings YoY

+123.3%p99

Days on Market YoY

+10.9%p69

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026

Valuation

Compressed↑

Rent vs. Price Growth

-5.0%p10

Months in status1

Data through Jun 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumBelow Avg

+1.0%p38

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthElevated

+20.9%p78

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaElevated

7.14p77

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityElevated

0.31p68

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentElevated

+0.0%p70

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationElevated

-$31Kp77

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Active correction with weak transactions but available credit. Buyers can borrow — they're choosing not to at current prices.

Bank Lending Standards

N/ANormal

Rate Change (YoY)

-5 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+194 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.1 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Surge

YoY Permit Growth

+20.9%Far above norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant overbuilding into weak demand. This is the highest-risk metro combination — new supply is delivering into a market that is already struggling to absorb existing inventory.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Diversified

Largest SectorMining & Extraction 15.4%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-05	Hyp	61	10	73	68	63	77
2025-12	Ress	50	40	38	74	8	77
2025-10	Ress	53	8	88	65	8	83
2025-09	Exp	55	8	88	65	19	83
2025-08	Rec	59	9	88	65	42	83
2025-06	Rec	74	84	88	75	47	83
2025-05	Exp	72	83	88	75	33	83
2025-03	Exp	68	85	88	72	14	83
2024-12	Rec	67	74	88	71	19	83
2024-10	Rec	64	66	88	71	10	83
2024-09	Exp	63	64	88	69	4	83
2024-07	Exp	63	69	88	69	3	83
2024-04	Exp	70	90	88	69	20	83
2024-01	Exp	71	98	88	68	20	83
2023-10	Exp	69	65	88	84	25	83
2023-08	Rec	61	38	88	84	6	83
2023-06	Rec	56	19	88	78	3	83
2023-05	Exp	57	22	88	78	2	83
2023-03	Exp	53	5	88	74	2	83
2023-02	Rec	53	3	88	74	0	83
2022-12	Rec	53	6	88	72	1	83
2022-11	Exp	52	1	88	72	0	83
2022-09	Exp	53	1	88	76	1	83
2022-06	Exp	52	0	88	73	1	83
2022-04	Rec	52	0	88	73	1	83
2022-02	Rec	54	0	88	80	2	83
2021-11	Rec	57	0	88	93	3	90
2021-09	Hyp	57	0	88	95	3	90
2021-07	Hyp	61	0	88	95	24	90
2021-04	Hyp	74	0	88	97	100	90
2021-02	Ress	74	0	88	99	100	90
2020-12	Ress	72	1	88	89	100	89
2020-10	Hyp	72	2	88	89	99	89
2020-08	Hyp	74	10	88	92	100	89
2020-05	Ress	72	4	88	91	91	89
2020-03	Ress	84	69	88	94	99	89
2020-01	Hyp	87	85	88	94	99	89
2019-11	Hyp	87	98	88	95	91	86
2019-10	Ress	83	98	88	95	66	86
2019-08	Ress	76	99	88	95	19	86
2019-06	Hyp	73	99	88	95	5	86
2019-05	Rec	72	99	88	95	0	86
2019-03	Exp	72	100	88	93	0	86
2019-01	Exp	72	100	88	93	0	86

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-06

Income2024

Employment2026-06

Migration2023