Rankings/Norwich-New London-Willimantic, CT

Norwich-New London-Willimantic, CT

Below AverageTier 1CBSA 35980Compare

Risk Rank: #245 of 274Month: 2026-06Score change (12m):↓ -12

36score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Norwich's housing market shows below-average risk, ranking 245th of 274 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Norwich has maintained relatively stable market conditions throughout the observation period, currently in Expansion.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +6% pace with homes taking -6% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

2 months in current phase·from Expansion

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permit growth and price momentum, while affordability provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permit Growthp58

YoY permit change

Price Momentump57

12-month HPI change

Migrationp42

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +6% pace with homes taking -6% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY

+5.6%p54

Days on Market YoY

-6.1%p35

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+3.0%p92

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumNeutral

+1.6%p57

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthNeutral

+3.1%p58

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaLow Risk

1.77p14

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityLow Risk

0.23p11

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentBelow Avg

+0.8%p32

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationNeutral

+$24Kp42

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

N/ANormal

Rate Change (YoY)

-5 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+194 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.1 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+3.1%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorGovernment 21.3%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-05	Exp	32	60	37	11	29	42
2025-11	Exp	50	87	87	10	60	37
2025-08	Exp	49	95	87	10	49	37
2025-05	Exp	47	98	87	12	30	37
2025-02	Exp	46	94	87	10	30	37
2024-11	Exp	49	92	87	10	51	37
2024-08	Exp	40	64	87	7	29	37
2024-05	Exp	46	83	87	8	44	37
2024-02	Exp	36	29	87	7	40	37
2023-11	Exp	47	83	87	10	47	37
2023-08	Exp	46	91	87	8	33	37
2023-05	Exp	50	96	87	8	56	37
2023-02	Exp	49	97	87	12	44	37
2022-11	Exp	40	53	87	4	42	37
2022-08	Exp	36	28	87	4	41	37
2022-05	Exp	33	9	87	4	42	37
2022-02	Exp	34	28	87	4	34	37
2022-01	Exp	36	29	87	4	41	37

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-06

Income2024

Employment2026-06

Migration2023