Niles, MI

NeutralTier 1CBSA 35660Compare

Risk Rank: #155 of 274Month: 2026-06Score change (12m):— -4

49score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Niles's housing market shows average risk, ranking 155th of 274 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Niles experienced a market correction from early 2025 through early 2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is roughly flat (+2% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

2 months in current phase·from Expansion

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by price momentum and affordability, while permit growth provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Price Momentump94

12-month HPI change

Affordabilityp69

Mortgage payment / income

Employmentp62

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (+2% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

+2.0%p51

Days on Market YoY

-4.7%p38

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026

Valuation

Balanced↓

Rent vs. Price Growth

+3.7%p94

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumHigh Risk

+3.4%p94

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk

-28.6%p9

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaLow Risk

2.05p20

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityElevated

0.31p69

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentElevated

+0.1%p62

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationNeutral

+$28Kp41

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

N/ANormal

Rate Change (YoY)

-5 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+194 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.1 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-28.6%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorManufacturing 19.8%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-05	Exp	51	93	10	69	72	41
2025-11	Rec	48	44	44	64	78	29
2025-09	Rec	44	40	44	64	60	29
2025-06	Rec	53	56	44	63	100	29
2025-05	Hyp	53	60	44	63	98	29
2025-04	Rec	54	63	44	63	97	29
2025-03	Ress	50	59	44	61	80	29
2025-01	Rec	39	52	44	61	22	29
2024-12	Hyp	50	90	44	64	50	29
2024-10	Rec	54	99	44	64	61	29
2024-09	Ress	55	91	44	64	76	29
2024-08	Hyp	54	70	44	64	88	29
2024-06	Hyp	38	49	44	61	19	29
2024-04	Exp	38	65	44	61	4	29
2024-02	Exp	50	87	44	61	50	29
2023-11	Exp	43	55	44	62	44	29
2023-08	Rec	44	80	44	68	20	29
2023-06	Rec	45	52	44	65	57	29
2023-04	Hyp	53	63	44	65	93	29
2023-02	Hyp	38	30	44	61	40	29
2023-01	Ress	41	28	44	61	60	29
2022-11	Ress	38	37	44	54	40	29
2022-10	Hyp	36	42	44	54	24	29
2022-09	Exp	41	68	44	60	21	29
2022-07	Exp	42	57	44	60	40	29
2022-04	Exp	39	46	44	57	34	29
2022-02	Rec	42	61	44	60	35	29
2021-12	Rec	35	43	44	55	14	32
2021-11	Exp	40	36	44	55	49	32
2021-09	Exp	49	44	44	58	94	32
2021-06	Exp	36	41	44	57	18	32
2021-05	Rec	34	44	44	57	3	32
2021-03	Rec	44	22	44	55	90	32
2021-02	Exp	44	18	44	55	88	32
2020-12	Exp	54	60	44	74	96	24
2020-11	Rec	55	70	44	74	92	24
2020-09	Rec	51	68	44	73	73	24
2020-06	Rec	46	22	44	72	92	24
2020-03	Exp	55	79	44	74	83	24
2020-01	Exp	50	84	44	74	52	24
2019-10	Rec	44	58	44	72	30	34
2019-08	Rec	55	74	44	74	81	34
2019-07	Exp	50	66	44	74	55	34
2019-05	Exp	50	85	44	73	42	34
2019-03	Rec	51	72	44	71	59	34
2019-01	Rec	48	56	44	71	61	34

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-06

Income2024

Employment2026-06

Migration2023