Niles, MI

NeutralTier 1CBSA 35660Compare

Risk Rank: #168 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— -3

47score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Niles experienced a market correction from early 2025 through early 2025. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Expansion for 1 month·Previously: Recovery

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Niles's housing market shows average risk, ranking 168th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by affordability and permit growth. The market is in Expansion phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Affordability

p64 (moderate)

Mortgage payment / income

Permit Growth

p61 (moderate)

YoY permit change

Price Momentum

p52 (moderate)

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (-4% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY

-4.2%p44

Days on Market YoY

-5.4%p37

Months in status7

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+2.6%p91

Months in status13

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum52

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth61

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita28

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability64

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment48

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration29

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+2.5%	p52
Permit Growth	+5.2%	p61
Permits/1K Pop	2.38	p28
Affordability	0.29	p64
Employment	+0.3%	p48
Net AGI Migration	+$80K	p29

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+5.2%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Based on limited permit volume

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY-4.2%

Days on Market YoY-5.4%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 7 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	48	44	44	64	78	29
2025-09	Rec	44	40	44	64	60	29
2025-06	Rec	53	56	44	63	100	29
2025-05	Hyp	53	60	44	63	98	29
2025-04	Rec	54	63	44	63	97	29
2025-03	Ress	50	59	44	61	80	29
2025-01	Rec	39	52	44	61	22	29
2024-12	Hyp	50	90	44	64	50	29
2024-10	Rec	54	99	44	64	61	29
2024-09	Ress	55	91	44	64	76	29
2024-08	Hyp	54	70	44	64	88	29
2024-06	Hyp	38	49	44	61	19	29
2024-04	Exp	38	65	44	61	4	29
2024-02	Exp	50	87	44	61	50	29
2023-11	Exp	43	55	44	62	44	29
2023-08	Rec	44	80	44	68	20	29
2023-06	Rec	45	52	44	65	57	29
2023-04	Hyp	53	63	44	65	93	29
2023-02	Hyp	38	30	44	61	40	29
2023-01	Ress	41	28	44	61	60	29
2022-11	Ress	38	37	44	54	40	29
2022-10	Hyp	36	42	44	54	24	29
2022-09	Exp	41	68	44	60	21	29
2022-07	Exp	42	57	44	60	40	29
2022-04	Exp	39	46	44	57	34	29
2022-02	Rec	42	61	44	60	35	29
2021-12	Rec	35	43	44	55	14	32
2021-11	Exp	40	36	44	55	49	32
2021-09	Exp	49	44	44	58	94	32
2021-06	Exp	36	41	44	57	18	32
2021-05	Rec	34	44	44	57	3	32
2021-03	Rec	44	22	44	55	90	32
2021-02	Exp	44	18	44	55	88	32
2020-12	Exp	54	60	44	74	96	24
2020-11	Rec	55	70	44	74	92	24
2020-09	Rec	51	68	44	73	73	24
2020-06	Rec	46	22	44	72	92	24
2020-03	Exp	55	79	44	74	83	24
2020-01	Exp	50	84	44	74	52	24
2019-10	Rec	44	58	44	72	30	34
2019-08	Rec	55	74	44	74	81	34
2019-07	Exp	50	66	44	74	55	34
2019-05	Exp	50	85	44	73	42	34
2019-03	Rec	51	72	44	71	59	34
2019-01	Rec	48	56	44	71	61	34

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022