Rankings/New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ

New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ

NeutralTier 1CBSA 35620Compare

Risk Rank: #119 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— 0

52score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

New York's housing market shows average risk, ranking 119th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

New York has maintained relatively stable market conditions throughout the observation period, currently in Expansion.

Inventory is roughly flat (+4% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

2 months in current phase·from Expansion

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and price momentum, while permit growth provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp100

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Price Momentump84

12-month HPI change

Employmentp41

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (+4% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

+4.0%p53

Days on Market YoY

-2.7%p42

Months in status84

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-0.3%p60

Months in status11

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumHigh Risk

+5.0%p84

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk

-20.1%p19

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaBelow Avg

2.41p30

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityBelow Avg

0.26p35

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentNeutral

+0.5%p41

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk

-$16Mp100

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-76 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-20.1%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Builders are pulling back but demand remains healthy. A supply constraint could form — fewer new units entering a market that is still absorbing well.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Concentrated

Largest SectorHealth Care 26.5%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

New York's 21 counties show moderate divergence — Bronx County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Nassau County anchors the lower end.

Moderate12.7

21 of 22 counties scored

New York, NY-NJ shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Bronx County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by affordability), while Nassau County anchors the lower end (Low Risk).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Essex County<5%	71	Elevated	4.8%	75	40	85
Bronx CountyRisk Driver	70	Elevated	7.7%	10	85	95
Monmouth County<5%	62	Elevated	3.5%	40	75	55
Bergen County	60	Elevated	5.3%	90	35	50
Morris County<5%	60	Elevated	2.8%	50	90	25
Hudson County<5%	58	Elevated	4.0%	20	30	80
Putnam County<5%	56	Elevated	0.5%	95	100	5
Passaic County<5%	55	Average	2.9%	85	65	35
Union County<5%	52	Average	3.2%	70	20	60
Westchester County	50	Average	5.5%	45	55	70
New York CountyUnscored	50	Average	—	—	—	—
Sussex County<5%	48	Average	0.8%	80	95	0
Somerset County<5%	48	Average	1.9%	65	70	15
Ocean County<5%	46	Average	3.6%	35	25	30
Suffolk County	46	Average	8.4%	60	80	40
Middlesex County<5%	45	Below Average	4.8%	100	15	20
Kings County	42	Below Average	14.5%	0	0	100
Rockland County<5%	41	Below Average	1.9%	55	45	45
Hunterdon County<5%	39	Below Average	0.7%	30	60	10
Queens County	38	Below Average	12.8%	5	5	90
Richmond County<5%	38	Below Average	2.7%	15	50	75
Nassau CountyStabilizer	25	Low Risk	7.6%	25	10	65

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Exp	52	78	32	33	31	100
2025-10	Rec	52	78	32	33	32	100
2025-08	Rec	52	87	32	33	24	100
2025-07	Exp	54	87	32	33	32	100
2025-05	Exp	55	87	32	32	43	100
2025-02	Exp	55	89	32	33	40	100
2025-01	Rec	54	87	32	33	35	100
2024-11	Rec	53	85	32	31	33	100
2024-10	Exp	52	85	32	31	28	100
2024-08	Exp	54	91	32	29	35	100
2024-05	Exp	54	92	32	28	38	100
2024-02	Exp	54	84	32	26	48	100
2023-11	Exp	56	80	32	26	60	100
2023-08	Rec	52	60	32	23	57	100
2023-06	Rec	49	50	32	23	53	100
2023-03	Rec	44	39	32	23	32	100
2023-02	Exp	43	36	32	22	29	100
2022-12	Exp	42	40	32	23	23	100
2022-09	Exp	38	27	32	23	12	100
2022-06	Exp	37	25	32	23	5	100
2022-03	Exp	36	18	32	23	9	100
2022-01	Rec	36	15	32	23	13	100
2021-11	Rec	37	16	32	26	13	100
2021-08	Rec	37	16	32	28	14	100
2021-06	Exp	37	22	32	28	4	100
2021-04	Exp	40	20	32	28	25	100
2021-03	Rec	54	32	32	31	94	100
2021-01	Rec	54	32	32	31	92	100
2020-12	Exp	50	24	32	22	91	100
2020-10	Exp	51	24	32	22	93	100
2020-07	Rec	51	22	32	22	97	100
2020-05	Rec	52	32	32	23	91	100
2020-04	Exp	52	33	32	23	91	100
2020-02	Exp	45	35	32	23	46	100
2020-01	Rec	45	37	32	23	46	100
2019-11	Rec	46	32	32	22	52	100
2019-08	Rec	44	29	32	22	45	100
2019-05	Exp	44	24	32	23	46	100
2019-03	Exp	42	23	32	23	41	100
2019-01	Exp	43	23	32	23	45	100

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022