Rankings/New Orleans-Metairie, LA

New Orleans-Metairie, LA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 35380Compare

Risk Rank: #39 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +19

60score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

New Orleans's housing market shows average risk, ranking 39th of 287 metros. The market has been in Expansion for 4 months. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals. Valuations are also showing some stretch.

New Orleans experienced a market correction from late 2022 through early 2023. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is roughly flat (+3% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Home prices are outpacing rents (-3.9% rent-price ratio change), indicating some valuation compression.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

4 months in current phase·from Expansion

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by migration and affordability, while permits per capita provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Migrationp97

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Affordabilityp78

Mortgage payment / income

Price Momentump74

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (+3% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY

+2.8%p52

Days on Market YoY

-1.2%p45

Months in status16

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Compressed—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-3.9%p16

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumElevated

+4.2%p74

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-11.7%p32

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaLow Risk

1.74p15

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityElevated

0.31p78

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentElevated

+0.0%p61

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationHigh Risk

-$309Kp97

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-11.7%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Concentrated

Largest SectorAccommodation & Food 22.3%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

New Orleans's 7 counties show moderate divergence — St. Charles Parish carries the most risk (Average) while Jefferson Parish anchors the lower end.

Moderate8.5Limited data

7 of 7 counties scored

New Orleans, LA shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. St. Charles Parish contributes the most structural risk (Average, driven by price momentum), while Jefferson Parish anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
St. Bernard Parish<5%	67	Elevated	4.5%	67	67	67
Plaquemines Parish<5%	62	Elevated	2.3%	100	33	17
Orleans Parish	50	Average	37.9%	33	17	100
St. Charles ParishRisk Driver	50	Average	5.2%	83	50	50
St. John the Baptist Parish<5%	46	Average	4.2%	17	100	33
St. James Parish<5%	42	Below Average	2.0%	0	83	0
Jefferson ParishStabilizer	33	Below Average	43.9%	50	0	83

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Exp	48	28	2	73	76	94
2025-09	Exp	38	20	2	73	26	94
2025-08	Rec	45	17	2	73	70	94
2025-06	Rec	39	21	2	74	29	94
2025-04	Exp	41	25	2	74	37	94
2025-02	Exp	35	6	2	72	24	94
2024-12	Rec	41	8	2	77	52	94
2024-10	Rec	35	6	2	77	17	94
2024-08	Hyp	36	4	2	77	27	94
2024-06	Hyp	43	1	2	76	69	94
2024-05	Rec	42	1	2	76	66	94
2024-04	Hyp	42	2	2	76	66	94
2024-02	Hyp	46	1	2	80	87	94
2023-11	Rec	45	1	2	75	83	94
2023-10	Hyp	46	3	2	75	86	94
2023-08	Hyp	46	2	2	78	85	94
2023-05	Hyp	44	9	2	79	69	94
2023-03	Ress	46	21	2	85	58	94
2023-01	Ress	42	13	2	85	48	94
2022-10	Ress	36	8	2	77	23	94
2022-07	Hyp	46	6	2	80	83	94
2022-06	Exp	43	3	2	81	66	94
2022-04	Exp	44	1	2	81	71	94
2022-02	Rec	43	7	2	83	61	94
2021-12	Rec	44	5	2	83	65	95
2021-09	Exp	51	7	2	88	100	95
2021-07	Exp	36	8	2	88	12	95
2021-05	Rec	39	12	2	89	23	95
2021-03	Rec	52	15	2	93	97	95
2021-01	Exp	53	18	2	93	95	95
2020-11	Exp	54	25	2	91	98	94
2020-10	Rec	54	25	2	91	98	94
2020-08	Rec	56	41	2	91	97	94
2020-05	Exp	58	58	2	92	90	94
2020-03	Exp	53	36	2	92	79	94
2020-02	Rec	49	36	2	92	59	94
2019-12	Rec	48	51	2	92	44	89
2019-11	Exp	49	57	2	92	42	89
2019-09	Exp	48	40	2	92	54	89
2019-06	Rec	48	47	2	93	48	89
2019-04	Rec	50	45	2	93	62	89
2019-03	Exp	51	35	2	92	74	89
2019-01	Exp	48	27	2	92	64	89

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023