Rankings/New Orleans-Metairie, LA

New Orleans-Metairie, LA

NeutralTier 1CBSA 35380Compare

Risk Rank: #120 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +11

52score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

New Orleans experienced a market correction from late 2022 through early 2023. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Expansion for 4 months·Previously: Expansion

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

New Orleans's housing market shows average risk, ranking 120th of 287 metros. The market has been in Expansion for 4 months. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by migration and affordability. The market is in Expansion phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Migration

p94 (highest risk decile)

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Affordability

p74 (moderate)

Mortgage payment / income

Employment

p60 (moderate)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (+3% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY

+2.8%p52

Days on Market YoY

-1.2%p45

Months in status16

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-1.3%p45

Months in status53

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum35

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth33

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita15

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability74

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment60

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration94

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+1.5%	p35
Permit Growth	-11.7%	p33
Permits/1K Pop	1.74	p15
Affordability	0.30	p74
Employment	+0.0%	p60
Net AGI Migration	-$378K	p94

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-11.7%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY+2.8%

Days on Market YoY-1.2%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 16 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

New Orleans's 7 counties show moderate divergence — St. Bernard Parish carries the most risk (Elevated) while St. James Parish anchors the lower end.

Moderate11.5

7 of 7 counties scored

New Orleans, LA shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. St. Bernard Parish contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by price momentum), while St. James Parish anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
St. Bernard ParishRisk Driver	67	Elevated	14.3%	67	67	67
St. Charles Parish	61	Elevated	14.3%	83	50	50
Orleans Parish	50	Average	14.3%	33	17	100
Plaquemines Parish	50	Average	14.3%	100	33	17
St. John the Baptist Parish	50	Average	14.3%	17	100	33
Jefferson Parish	44	Below Average	14.3%	50	0	83
St. James ParishStabilizer	28	Below Average	14.3%	0	83	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Exp	48	28	2	73	76	94
2025-09	Exp	38	20	2	73	26	94
2025-08	Rec	45	17	2	73	70	94
2025-06	Rec	39	21	2	74	29	94
2025-04	Exp	41	25	2	74	37	94
2025-02	Exp	35	6	2	72	24	94
2024-12	Rec	41	8	2	77	52	94
2024-10	Rec	35	6	2	77	17	94
2024-08	Hyp	36	4	2	77	27	94
2024-06	Hyp	43	1	2	76	69	94
2024-05	Rec	42	1	2	76	66	94
2024-04	Hyp	42	2	2	76	66	94
2024-02	Hyp	46	1	2	80	87	94
2023-11	Rec	45	1	2	75	83	94
2023-10	Hyp	46	3	2	75	86	94
2023-08	Hyp	46	2	2	78	85	94
2023-05	Hyp	44	9	2	79	69	94
2023-03	Ress	46	21	2	85	58	94
2023-01	Ress	42	13	2	85	48	94
2022-10	Ress	36	8	2	77	23	94
2022-07	Hyp	46	6	2	80	83	94
2022-06	Exp	43	3	2	81	66	94
2022-04	Exp	44	1	2	81	71	94
2022-02	Rec	43	7	2	83	61	94
2021-12	Rec	44	5	2	83	65	95
2021-09	Exp	51	7	2	88	100	95
2021-07	Exp	36	8	2	88	12	95
2021-05	Rec	39	12	2	89	23	95
2021-03	Rec	52	15	2	93	97	95
2021-01	Exp	53	18	2	93	95	95
2020-11	Exp	54	25	2	91	98	94
2020-10	Rec	54	25	2	91	98	94
2020-08	Rec	56	41	2	91	97	94
2020-05	Exp	58	58	2	92	90	94
2020-03	Exp	53	36	2	92	79	94
2020-02	Rec	49	36	2	92	59	94
2019-12	Rec	48	51	2	92	44	89
2019-11	Exp	49	57	2	92	42	89
2019-09	Exp	48	40	2	92	54	89
2019-06	Rec	48	47	2	93	48	89
2019-04	Rec	50	45	2	93	62	89
2019-03	Exp	51	35	2	92	74	89
2019-01	Exp	48	27	2	92	64	89

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022