New Haven, CT
Executive Summary
New Haven's housing market shows average risk, ranking 111th of 273 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. The market shows signs of liquidity stress with elevated inventory. Significant oversupply — conditions increasingly favor buyers over sellers.
New Haven has maintained relatively stable market conditions throughout the observation period, currently in Hypersupply.
Inventory has surged +16% YoY with days on market up +19% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.
Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.
Cycle Phase
Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption
Key Dynamics
Risk is primarily driven by migration and price momentum, while affordability provides the most support.
Top Drivers
Market Signals
Inventory has surged +16% YoY with days on market up +19% — significant supply buildup indicating market stress.
Liquidity
Valuation
Factor Details
12-month HPI change — higher = overheating
YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure
Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk
Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened
12-month employment change (risk inverted)
Net AGI migration (risk inverted)
National Context
Credit Conditions
Credit Regime
Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.
Supply Pipeline
Supply Regime
Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.
Local Signals
Metro Permit Activity
Permit Activity
ElevatedRaw signal — not the composite percentile
Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro
Above-normal supply meeting deteriorating demand. Correction risk is rising — new units are entering a market where existing inventory is already building.
Employment Concentration
Employment
DiversifiedInternal Structure
County-level structural analysis.
County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.
Score History
| Month | Score |
|---|---|
| 2026-06 | 52 |
| 2026-05 | 56 |
| 2025-12 | 58 |
| 2025-11 | 47 |
| 2025-09 | 43 |
| 2025-06 | 42 |
| 2025-03 | 49 |
| 2024-12 | 45 |
| 2024-09 | 45 |
| 2024-06 | 40 |
| 2024-03 | 25 |
| 2023-12 | 42 |
| 2023-09 | 40 |
| 2023-06 | 48 |
| 2023-03 | 43 |
| 2022-12 | 41 |
| 2022-09 | 37 |
| 2022-06 | 29 |
| 2022-03 | 27 |
| 2022-01 | 32 |