Rankings/Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN

Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN

NeutralTier 1CBSA 34980Compare

Risk Rank: #179 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— -1

46score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Nashville's housing market shows average risk, ranking 179th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring. Inventory accumulating faster than demand — the market is shifting toward buyers.

Nashville experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Inventory is elevated (+19% YoY) and days on market are up +8% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase·from Recovery

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permits per capita and affordability, while migration provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permits per Capitap90

Permits per 1,000 residents

Affordabilityp80

Mortgage payment / income

Permit Growthp47

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+19% YoY) and days on market are up +8% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch—

Active Listings YoY

+18.5%p68

Days on Market YoY

+7.6%p63

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-1.6%p40

Months in status13

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumBelow Avg

+2.2%p37

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthNeutral

-3.0%p47

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaHigh Risk

9.30p90

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityElevated

0.32p80

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentLow Risk

+1.0%p19

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationLow Risk

+$803Kp3

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-3.0%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Permit activity is typical but demand is softening. Price pressure is forming on the demand side — this is not a supply problem.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Limited data

Largest SectorGovernment 33%

5 of 20 sectors disclosed · QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Nashville's 14 counties show moderate divergence — Williamson County carries the most risk (Elevated) while Davidson County anchors the lower end.

Moderate10.7

14 of 14 counties scored

Nashville, TN shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Williamson County contributes the most structural risk (Elevated, driven by permit growth), while Davidson County anchors the lower end (Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Williamson CountyRisk Driver	75	Elevated	12.5%	85	92	92
Sumner County	67	Elevated	9.8%	92	46	85
Wilson County	66	Elevated	7.6%	46	54	77
Robertson County<5%	62	Elevated	3.6%	38	62	54
Maury County	62	Elevated	5.2%	8	77	62
Rutherford County	58	Elevated	17.3%	62	38	69
Cannon County<5%	54	Average	0.7%	23	100	15
Hickman County<5%	48	Average	1.2%	100	69	23
Davidson CountyStabilizer	46	Average	34.4%	15	0	100
Trousdale County<5%	44	Below Average	0.6%	77	15	31
Cheatham County<5%	36	Below Average	2.0%	69	31	38
Smith County<5%	33	Below Average	1.0%	0	85	8
Dickson County<5%	25	Low Risk	2.7%	31	8	46
Macon County<5%	25	Low Risk	1.3%	54	23	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	40	29	23	80	11	4
2025-10	Hyp	40	25	23	80	21	4
2025-08	Hyp	42	23	23	80	31	4
2025-06	Ress	48	36	23	81	55	4
2025-04	Ress	46	41	23	81	37	4
2025-01	Hyp	50	37	23	81	67	4
2024-11	Ress	49	41	23	81	57	4
2024-09	Ress	44	43	23	81	23	4
2024-08	Hyp	43	46	23	81	15	4
2024-06	Hyp	41	36	23	81	13	4
2024-03	Exp	40	25	23	81	19	4
2024-01	Exp	41	19	23	81	28	4
2023-11	Rec	40	25	23	80	18	4
2023-09	Rec	40	22	23	79	24	4
2023-07	Hyp	38	20	23	79	15	4
2023-05	Hyp	40	27	23	81	17	4
2023-02	Ress	45	60	23	81	12	4
2022-12	Ress	47	73	23	84	7	4
2022-09	Ress	49	91	23	84	4	4
2022-06	Ress	50	96	23	83	3	4
2022-04	Exp	50	95	23	83	3	4
2022-02	Rec	50	92	23	81	7	4
2021-12	Rec	52	88	23	81	28	4
2021-11	Exp	50	87	23	81	18	4
2021-09	Exp	46	76	23	78	6	4
2021-06	Exp	46	69	23	78	11	4
2021-05	Rec	47	69	23	78	18	4
2021-03	Rec	46	59	23	76	27	4
2020-12	Rec	44	57	23	70	21	5
2020-09	Rec	51	71	23	70	50	5
2020-06	Rec	50	69	23	68	49	5
2020-03	Rec	46	71	23	68	17	5
2020-02	Exp	44	69	23	68	13	5
2019-12	Exp	42	56	23	68	11	4
2019-11	Rec	42	56	23	68	13	4
2019-09	Rec	43	60	23	68	13	4
2019-06	Rec	43	69	23	68	5	4
2019-03	Rec	45	78	23	67	7	4
2019-02	Ress	44	77	23	67	6	4
2019-01	Ress	45	78	23	67	7	4

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023