Rankings/Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN

Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN

NeutralTier 1CBSA 34980Compare

Risk Rank: #194 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):— -2

45score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Nashville experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. Elevated inventory persists, suggesting the market hasn't fully normalized.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Hypersupply for 1 month·Previously: Recovery

Building activity may be outpacing demand absorption

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Nashville's housing market shows average risk, ranking 194th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Hypersupply. Inventory levels are elevated, warranting monitoring.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by permits per capita and affordability. The market is in Hypersupply phase. Liquidity is watch and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Permits per Capita

p91 (highest risk decile)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Affordability

p80 (elevated risk)

Mortgage payment / income

Permit Growth

p48 (below average risk)

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is elevated (+19% YoY) and days on market are up +8% — supply is building but not yet at stress levels.

Liquidity

Watch—

Active Listings YoY

+18.5%p68

Days on Market YoY

+7.6%p63

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-0.7%p54

Months in status13

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum31

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth48

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita91

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability80

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment19

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration3

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+1.3%	p31
Permit Growth	-3.0%	p48
Permits/1K Pop	9.30	p91
Affordability	0.32	p80
Employment	+1.0%	p19
Net AGI Migration	+$1M	p3

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Oversupply with deteriorating transactions and no credit excuse. Supply-driven correction risk is elevated.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-3.0%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Permit activity is typical but demand is softening. Price pressure is forming on the demand side — this is not a supply problem.

Liquidity

Watch—

Active Listings YoY+18.5%

Days on Market YoY+7.6%

AssessmentInventory building

Watch for 1 monthData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

Nashville's 14 counties show moderate divergence — Williamson County carries the most risk (High Risk) while Macon County anchors the lower end.

Moderate17.3

14 of 14 counties scored

Nashville, TN shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Williamson County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by permit growth), while Macon County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Williamson CountyRisk Driver	90	High Risk	7.1%	85	92	92
Sumner County	74	Elevated	7.1%	92	46	85
Hickman County	64	Elevated	7.1%	100	69	23
Wilson County	59	Elevated	7.1%	46	54	77
Rutherford County	56	Elevated	7.1%	62	38	69
Robertson County	51	Average	7.1%	38	62	54
Maury County	49	Average	7.1%	8	77	62
Cannon County	46	Average	7.1%	23	100	15
Cheatham County	46	Average	7.1%	69	31	38
Trousdale County	41	Below Average	7.1%	77	15	31
Davidson County	38	Below Average	7.1%	15	0	100
Smith County	31	Below Average	7.1%	0	85	8
Dickson County	28	Below Average	7.1%	31	8	46
Macon CountyStabilizer	26	Below Average	7.1%	54	23	0

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	40	29	23	80	11	4
2025-10	Hyp	40	25	23	80	21	4
2025-08	Hyp	42	23	23	80	31	4
2025-06	Ress	48	36	23	81	55	4
2025-04	Ress	46	41	23	81	37	4
2025-01	Hyp	50	37	23	81	67	4
2024-11	Ress	49	41	23	81	57	4
2024-09	Ress	44	43	23	81	23	4
2024-08	Hyp	43	46	23	81	15	4
2024-06	Hyp	41	36	23	81	13	4
2024-03	Exp	40	25	23	81	19	4
2024-01	Exp	41	19	23	81	28	4
2023-11	Rec	40	25	23	80	18	4
2023-09	Rec	40	22	23	79	24	4
2023-07	Hyp	38	20	23	79	15	4
2023-05	Hyp	40	27	23	81	17	4
2023-02	Ress	45	60	23	81	12	4
2022-12	Ress	47	73	23	84	7	4
2022-09	Ress	49	91	23	84	4	4
2022-06	Ress	50	96	23	83	3	4
2022-04	Exp	50	95	23	83	3	4
2022-02	Rec	50	92	23	81	7	4
2021-12	Rec	52	88	23	81	28	4
2021-11	Exp	50	87	23	81	18	4
2021-09	Exp	46	76	23	78	6	4
2021-06	Exp	46	69	23	78	11	4
2021-05	Rec	47	69	23	78	18	4
2021-03	Rec	46	59	23	76	27	4
2020-12	Rec	44	57	23	70	21	5
2020-09	Rec	51	71	23	70	50	5
2020-06	Rec	50	69	23	68	49	5
2020-03	Rec	46	71	23	68	17	5
2020-02	Exp	44	69	23	68	13	5
2019-12	Exp	42	56	23	68	11	4
2019-11	Rec	42	56	23	68	13	4
2019-09	Rec	43	60	23	68	13	4
2019-06	Rec	43	69	23	68	5	4
2019-03	Rec	45	78	23	67	7	4
2019-02	Ress	44	77	23	67	6	4
2019-01	Ress	45	78	23	67	7	4

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022