Rankings/Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN

Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN

NeutralTier 1CBSA 34980Compare

Risk Rank: #175 of 274Month: 2026-06Score change (12m):— -2

46score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Nashville's housing market shows average risk, ranking 175th of 274 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory is growing moderately (+11% YoY) with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Nashville experienced a market correction from early 2025 through mid-2025. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +11% pace with homes taking +2% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

2 months in current phase·from Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permits per capita and affordability, while migration provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permits per Capitap86

Permits per 1,000 residents

Affordabilityp81

Mortgage payment / income

Price Momentump57

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +11% pace with homes taking +2% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+10.9%p60

Days on Market YoY

+1.9%p51

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-1.2%p45

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumNeutral

+1.6%p57

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthBelow Avg

-9.1%p34

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaHigh Risk

8.42p86

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityHigh Risk

0.33p81

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentLow Risk

+1.6%p13

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationLow Risk

+$803Kp3

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

N/ANormal

Rate Change (YoY)

-5 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+194 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.1 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-9.1%Below norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Builders are pulling back but demand remains healthy. A supply constraint could form — fewer new units entering a market that is still absorbing well.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Limited data

Largest SectorGovernment 33%

5 of 20 sectors disclosed · QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

Nashville's 14 counties show moderate divergence — Sumner County carries the most risk (High Risk) while Rutherford County anchors the lower end.

Moderate13.4

14 of 14 counties scored

Nashville, TN shows Moderate internal divergence — some counties diverge meaningfully from the metro picture. Sumner County contributes the most structural risk (High Risk, driven by permit growth), while Rutherford County anchors the lower end (Below Average).

Within-metro factor percentiles (0 = lowest risk, 100 = highest risk)

County	Score ▼	Band	Pop %	Price	Permits	Afford
Sumner CountyRisk Driver	79	High Risk	9.8%	31	100	85
Wilson County	71	Elevated	7.6%	46	77	77
Maury County	66	Elevated	5.2%	77	31	62
Dickson County<5%	58	Elevated	2.7%	23	92	46
Robertson County<5%	52	Average	3.6%	54	23	54
Trousdale County<5%	48	Average	0.6%	38	69	23
Smith County<5%	46	Average	1.0%	85	54	8
Macon County<5%	44	Below Average	1.3%	92	62	0
Davidson County	44	Below Average	34.4%	15	15	100
Williamson County	44	Below Average	12.5%	62	8	92
Rutherford CountyStabilizer	42	Below Average	17.3%	8	38	69
Cheatham County<5%	38	Below Average	2.0%	0	85	38
Cannon County<5%	35	Below Average	0.7%	100	0	31
Hickman County<5%	32	Below Average	1.2%	69	46	15

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-05	Rec	51	49	45	81	39	3
2025-12	Hyp	46	37	47	80	19	3
2025-11	Rec	40	29	23	80	11	4
2025-10	Hyp	40	25	23	80	21	4
2025-08	Hyp	42	23	23	80	31	4
2025-06	Ress	48	36	23	81	55	4
2025-04	Ress	46	41	23	81	37	4
2025-01	Hyp	50	37	23	81	67	4
2024-11	Ress	49	41	23	81	57	4
2024-09	Ress	44	43	23	81	23	4
2024-08	Hyp	43	46	23	81	15	4
2024-06	Hyp	41	36	23	81	13	4
2024-03	Exp	40	25	23	81	19	4
2024-01	Exp	41	19	23	81	28	4
2023-11	Rec	40	25	23	80	18	4
2023-09	Rec	40	22	23	79	24	4
2023-07	Hyp	38	20	23	79	15	4
2023-05	Hyp	40	27	23	81	17	4
2023-02	Ress	45	60	23	81	12	4
2022-12	Ress	47	73	23	84	7	4
2022-09	Ress	49	91	23	84	4	4
2022-06	Ress	50	96	23	83	3	4
2022-04	Exp	50	95	23	83	3	4
2022-02	Rec	50	92	23	81	7	4
2021-12	Rec	52	88	23	81	28	4
2021-11	Exp	50	87	23	81	18	4
2021-09	Exp	46	76	23	78	6	4
2021-06	Exp	46	69	23	78	11	4
2021-05	Rec	47	69	23	78	18	4
2021-03	Rec	46	59	23	76	27	4
2020-12	Rec	44	57	23	70	21	5
2020-09	Rec	51	71	23	70	50	5
2020-06	Rec	50	69	23	68	49	5
2020-03	Rec	46	71	23	68	17	5
2020-02	Exp	44	69	23	68	13	5
2019-12	Exp	42	56	23	68	11	4
2019-11	Rec	42	56	23	68	13	4
2019-09	Rec	43	60	23	68	13	4
2019-06	Rec	43	69	23	68	5	4
2019-03	Rec	45	78	23	67	7	4
2019-02	Ress	44	77	23	67	6	4
2019-01	Ress	45	78	23	67	7	4

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-06

Income2024

Employment2026-06

Migration2023