Rankings/Naples-Marco Island, FL

Naples-Marco Island, FL

NeutralTier 1CBSA 34940Compare

Risk Rank: #142 of 273Month: 2026-08Score change (12m):— -1

49score

Composite risk percentile vs 273 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Naples's housing market shows average risk, ranking 142nd of 273 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Inventory is growing moderately (-16% YoY) with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Naples experienced a market correction from late 2023 through mid-2024. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is declining (-16% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by affordability and permits per capita, while migration provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Affordabilityp92

Mortgage payment / income

Permits per Capitap83

Permits per 1,000 residents

Price Momentump51

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is declining (-16% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.

Liquidity

Stable↑

Active Listings YoY

-15.8%p30

Days on Market YoY

-11.7%p26

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-0.7%p52

Months in status1

Data through Aug 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumNeutral

+2.4%p51

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthNeutral

+1.2%p50

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaHigh Risk

8.03p83

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityHigh Risk

0.37p92

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentLow Risk

+1.4%p15

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationLow Risk

+$2Mp1

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

+0.0Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

+11 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+196 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.89Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-19.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 6 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+1.2%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Diversified

Largest SectorHealth Care 14.1%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-06	Rec	64	94	57	93	58	1
2025-12	Rec	44	0	15	89	81	1
2025-09	Rec	52	1	42	88	95	1
2025-08	Hyp	50	2	42	88	83	1
2025-06	Hyp	52	13	42	92	81	1
2025-03	Hyp	57	26	42	94	95	1
2024-12	Hyp	55	26	42	94	80	1
2024-09	Hyp	39	10	42	92	2	1
2024-06	Hyp	43	35	42	94	1	1
2024-05	Ress	41	22	42	94	1	1
2024-03	Ress	39	9	42	94	1	1
2023-12	Ress	39	10	42	94	1	1
2023-09	Hyp	47	54	42	92	8	1
2023-07	Hyp	46	49	42	92	8	1
2023-04	Hyp	54	93	42	94	8	1
2023-02	Ress	55	100	42	97	5	1
2022-12	Ress	52	79	42	96	6	1
2022-10	Hyp	56	86	42	96	25	1
2022-08	Ress	54	95	42	95	5	1
2022-06	Ress	55	99	42	96	7	1
2022-04	Exp	55	98	42	96	6	1
2022-02	Exp	56	99	42	95	14	1
2021-11	Exp	54	99	42	95	4	1
2021-08	Exp	54	95	42	92	11	1
2021-05	Rec	56	95	42	92	21	1
2021-03	Rec	54	74	42	89	34	1
2020-12	Rec	46	24	42	75	49	1
2020-09	Rec	43	22	42	74	32	1
2020-07	Exp	47	52	42	74	25	1
2020-05	Exp	44	21	42	74	41	1
2020-03	Rec	49	53	42	78	32	1
2020-01	Rec	40	16	42	78	18	1
2019-10	Exp	46	52	42	79	16	1
2019-08	Exp	37	10	42	75	7	1
2019-07	Rec	38	11	42	75	12	1
2019-05	Rec	38	16	42	76	8	1
2019-04	Exp	38	17	42	76	6	1
2019-02	Exp	45	55	42	82	3	1
2019-01	Hyp	44	55	42	82	1	1

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q2

Permits2026-08

Income2024

Employment2026-08

Migration2023