Rankings/Naples-Marco Island, FL

Naples-Marco Island, FL

NeutralTier 1CBSA 34940Compare

Risk Rank: #197 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -11

44score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Naples's housing market shows average risk, ranking 197th of 287 metros. The market has been in Recovery for 4 months. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers.

Naples experienced a market correction from late 2023 through mid-2024. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is roughly flat (+3% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

4 months in current phase·from Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by affordability and employment, while price momentum provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Affordabilityp89

Mortgage payment / income

Employmentp81

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permits per Capitap78

Permits per 1,000 residents

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (+3% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+2.9%p52

Days on Market YoY

+7.1%p62

Months in status4

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+1.8%p85

Months in status10

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumLow Risk

-3.6%p0

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthLow Risk

-23.3%p15

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaElevated

7.07p78

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityHigh Risk

0.34p89

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentHigh Risk

-0.4%p81

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationLow Risk

+$2Mp1

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-23.3%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Diversified

Largest SectorHealth Care 14.1%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	48	1	42	88	73	1
2025-09	Rec	52	1	42	88	95	1
2025-08	Hyp	50	2	42	88	83	1
2025-06	Hyp	52	13	42	92	81	1
2025-03	Hyp	57	26	42	94	95	1
2024-12	Hyp	55	26	42	94	80	1
2024-09	Hyp	39	10	42	92	2	1
2024-06	Hyp	43	35	42	94	1	1
2024-05	Ress	41	22	42	94	1	1
2024-03	Ress	39	9	42	94	1	1
2023-12	Ress	39	10	42	94	1	1
2023-09	Hyp	47	54	42	92	8	1
2023-07	Hyp	46	49	42	92	8	1
2023-04	Hyp	54	93	42	94	8	1
2023-02	Ress	55	100	42	97	5	1
2022-12	Ress	52	79	42	96	6	1
2022-10	Hyp	56	86	42	96	25	1
2022-08	Ress	54	95	42	95	5	1
2022-06	Ress	55	99	42	96	7	1
2022-04	Exp	55	98	42	96	6	1
2022-02	Exp	56	99	42	95	14	1
2021-11	Exp	54	99	42	95	4	1
2021-08	Exp	54	95	42	92	11	1
2021-05	Rec	56	95	42	92	21	1
2021-03	Rec	54	74	42	89	34	1
2020-12	Rec	46	24	42	75	49	1
2020-09	Rec	43	22	42	74	32	1
2020-07	Exp	47	52	42	74	25	1
2020-05	Exp	44	21	42	74	41	1
2020-03	Rec	49	53	42	78	32	1
2020-01	Rec	40	16	42	78	18	1
2019-10	Exp	46	52	42	79	16	1
2019-08	Exp	37	10	42	75	7	1
2019-07	Rec	38	11	42	75	12	1
2019-05	Rec	38	16	42	76	8	1
2019-04	Exp	38	17	42	76	6	1
2019-02	Exp	45	55	42	82	3	1
2019-01	Hyp	44	55	42	82	1	1

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2026-01

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2023