Rankings/Naples-Marco Island, FL

Naples-Marco Island, FL

ElevatedTier 1CBSA 34940Compare

Risk Rank: #21 of 274Month: 2026-06Score change (12m):↑ +12

64score

Composite risk percentile vs 274 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Naples's housing market shows elevated risk, ranking 21st of 274 metros. The market recently entered Recovery. Inventory is growing moderately (-20% YoY) with stable liquidity. Early signs of stabilization — conditions may favor patient buyers. Valuations are also showing some stretch.

Naples experienced a market correction from late 2023 through mid-2024. The market is currently recovering.

Inventory is declining (-20% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.

Home prices are outpacing rents (-3.0% rent-price ratio change), indicating some valuation compression.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

2 months in current phase·from Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Valuation Lag — Liquidity is improving but rent-price ratios remain compressed.

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by price momentum and affordability, while migration provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Price Momentump94

12-month HPI change

Affordabilityp93

Mortgage payment / income

Permits per Capitap84

Permits per 1,000 residents

Market Signals

Inventory is declining (-20% YoY), indicating a tight market with limited supply.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

-20.2%p26

Days on Market YoY

-1.9%p44

Months in status2

Data through Jun 2026

Valuation

Compressed—

Rent vs. Price Growth

-3.0%p22

Months in status1

Data through Jun 2026Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumHigh Risk

+3.4%p94

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthNeutral

+2.0%p57

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaHigh Risk

8.18p84

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityHigh Risk

0.36p93

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentNeutral

+0.2%p58

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationLow Risk

+$2Mp1

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

N/ANormal

Rate Change (YoY)

-5 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+194 bpsElevated

Stable for 10 quartersData through 2026-Q3

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.90Elevated

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.1 ppNormal

Accumulating for 5 quartersData through 2026-Q2

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

+2.0%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Diversified

Largest SectorHealth Care 14.1%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2026-05	Rec	58	55	37	93	82	1
2025-11	Rec	48	1	42	88	73	1
2025-08	Hyp	50	2	42	88	83	1
2025-06	Hyp	52	13	42	92	81	1
2025-03	Hyp	57	26	42	94	95	1
2024-12	Hyp	55	26	42	94	80	1
2024-09	Hyp	39	10	42	92	2	1
2024-06	Hyp	43	35	42	94	1	1
2024-05	Ress	41	22	42	94	1	1
2024-03	Ress	39	9	42	94	1	1
2023-12	Ress	39	10	42	94	1	1
2023-09	Hyp	47	54	42	92	8	1
2023-07	Hyp	46	49	42	92	8	1
2023-04	Hyp	54	93	42	94	8	1
2023-02	Ress	55	100	42	97	5	1
2022-12	Ress	52	79	42	96	6	1
2022-10	Hyp	56	86	42	96	25	1
2022-08	Ress	54	95	42	95	5	1
2022-06	Ress	55	99	42	96	7	1
2022-04	Exp	55	98	42	96	6	1
2022-02	Exp	56	99	42	95	14	1
2021-11	Exp	54	99	42	95	4	1
2021-08	Exp	54	95	42	92	11	1
2021-05	Rec	56	95	42	92	21	1
2021-03	Rec	54	74	42	89	34	1
2020-12	Rec	46	24	42	75	49	1
2020-09	Rec	43	22	42	74	32	1
2020-07	Exp	47	52	42	74	25	1
2020-05	Exp	44	21	42	74	41	1
2020-03	Rec	49	53	42	78	32	1
2020-01	Rec	40	16	42	78	18	1
2019-10	Exp	46	52	42	79	16	1
2019-08	Exp	37	10	42	75	7	1
2019-07	Rec	38	11	42	75	12	1
2019-05	Rec	38	16	42	76	8	1
2019-04	Exp	38	17	42	76	6	1
2019-02	Exp	45	55	42	82	3	1
2019-01	Hyp	44	55	42	82	1	1

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2026-Q1

Permits2026-06

Income2024

Employment2026-06

Migration2023