Rankings/Naples-Marco Island, FL

Naples-Marco Island, FL

NeutralTier 1CBSA 34940Compare

Risk Rank: #203 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↓ -11

44score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Naples experienced a market correction from late 2023 through mid-2024. The market is currently recovering.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Recovery for 4 months·Previously: Recovery

Market conditions are rebuilding after a correction period

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Naples's housing market shows average risk, ranking 203rd of 287 metros. The market has been in Recovery for 4 months. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by affordability and employment. The market is in Recovery phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Affordability

p88 (elevated risk)

Mortgage payment / income

Employment

p81 (elevated risk)

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Permits per Capita

p78 (elevated risk)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Market Signals

Inventory is roughly flat (+3% YoY) with homes selling at a normal pace — a balanced market.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY

+2.9%p52

Days on Market YoY

+7.1%p62

Months in status4

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced—

Rent vs. Price Growth

+3.7%p95

Months in status10

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum0

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth14

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita78

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability88

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment81

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration1

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	-5.4%	p0
Permit Growth	-23.3%	p14
Permits/1K Pop	7.07	p78
Affordability	0.34	p88
Employment	-0.4%	p81
Net AGI Migration	+$3M	p1

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Healthy recovery. Credit is flowing normally and transactions are steady — conditions favor continued rebuilding.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Sharp Cooling

YoY Permit Growth

-23.3%Significant pullback

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Significant supply pullback into healthy demand. A supply constraint is forming — pricing power is shifting to existing inventory holders.

Liquidity

Stable↓

Active Listings YoY+2.9%

Days on Market YoY+7.1%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 4 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	48	1	42	88	73	1
2025-09	Rec	52	1	42	88	95	1
2025-08	Hyp	50	2	42	88	83	1
2025-06	Hyp	52	13	42	92	81	1
2025-03	Hyp	57	26	42	94	95	1
2024-12	Hyp	55	26	42	94	80	1
2024-09	Hyp	39	10	42	92	2	1
2024-06	Hyp	43	35	42	94	1	1
2024-05	Ress	41	22	42	94	1	1
2024-03	Ress	39	9	42	94	1	1
2023-12	Ress	39	10	42	94	1	1
2023-09	Hyp	47	54	42	92	8	1
2023-07	Hyp	46	49	42	92	8	1
2023-04	Hyp	54	93	42	94	8	1
2023-02	Ress	55	100	42	97	5	1
2022-12	Ress	52	79	42	96	6	1
2022-10	Hyp	56	86	42	96	25	1
2022-08	Ress	54	95	42	95	5	1
2022-06	Ress	55	99	42	96	7	1
2022-04	Exp	55	98	42	96	6	1
2022-02	Exp	56	99	42	95	14	1
2021-11	Exp	54	99	42	95	4	1
2021-08	Exp	54	95	42	92	11	1
2021-05	Rec	56	95	42	92	21	1
2021-03	Rec	54	74	42	89	34	1
2020-12	Rec	46	24	42	75	49	1
2020-09	Rec	43	22	42	74	32	1
2020-07	Exp	47	52	42	74	25	1
2020-05	Exp	44	21	42	74	41	1
2020-03	Rec	49	53	42	78	32	1
2020-01	Rec	40	16	42	78	18	1
2019-10	Exp	46	52	42	79	16	1
2019-08	Exp	37	10	42	75	7	1
2019-07	Rec	38	11	42	75	12	1
2019-05	Rec	38	16	42	76	8	1
2019-04	Exp	38	17	42	76	6	1
2019-02	Exp	45	55	42	82	3	1
2019-01	Hyp	44	55	42	82	1	1

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022