Rankings/Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC

Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC

NeutralTier 1CBSA 34820Compare

Risk Rank: #150 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +13

49score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Cycle Phase

Myrtle Beach experienced a market correction from early 2024 through mid-2024. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

In Expansion for 1 month·Previously: Recovery

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Recovery

Expansion

Hypersupply

Recession

Myrtle Beach's housing market shows average risk, ranking 150th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity.

Executive Summary

Risk is Neutral, driven primarily by permits per capita and affordability. The market is in Expansion phase. Liquidity is stable and valuation is balanced.

Top Risk Drivers (This Month)

Permits per Capita

p100 (highest risk decile)

Permits per 1,000 residents

Affordability

p85 (elevated risk)

Mortgage payment / income

Price Momentum

p59 (moderate)

12-month HPI change

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +5% pace with homes taking +6% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

+5.5%p54

Days on Market YoY

+6.0%p60

Months in status5

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced↓

Rent vs. Price Growth

-2.9%p24

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Factor Breakdown

Price Momentum59

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit Growth45

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per Capita100

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

Affordability85

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

Employment1

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

Migration6

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

Underlying Values

Metric	Value	Pctile
Price Momentum	+2.9%	p59
Permit Growth	-3.5%	p45
Permits/1K Pop	18.01	p100
Affordability	0.33	p85
Employment	+3.1%	p1
Net AGI Migration	+$693K	p6

National ContextDoes not affect score

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-74 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+189 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.91High

Completion-Permit Divergence

-3.2 ppNormal

Accumulating for 3 quartersData through 2025-Q4

Local SignalsDoes not affect score

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-3.5%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY+5.5%

Days on Market YoY+6.0%

AssessmentBalanced conditions

Stable for 5 monthsData through Dec 2025

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	44	73	3	85	0	6
2025-09	Rec	45	79	3	85	0	6
2025-07	Hyp	44	68	3	85	0	6
2025-05	Rec	43	67	3	82	0	6
2025-04	Hyp	43	65	3	82	1	6
2025-02	Hyp	43	61	3	84	7	6
2024-11	Hyp	39	4	3	81	41	6
2024-08	Hyp	45	15	3	82	65	6
2024-05	Ress	38	31	3	81	6	6
2024-03	Ress	49	66	3	83	35	6
2024-01	Hyp	53	75	3	83	53	6
2023-11	Rec	48	90	3	79	10	6
2023-09	Hyp	41	56	3	73	10	6
2023-07	Hyp	42	49	3	73	19	6
2023-04	Hyp	48	90	3	72	19	6
2023-03	Ress	43	82	3	69	0	6
2023-01	Ress	42	74	3	69	2	6
2022-10	Ress	46	93	3	75	3	6
2022-09	Hyp	48	97	3	77	5	6
2022-08	Ress	48	97	3	77	4	6
2022-06	Ress	44	85	3	66	6	6
2022-05	Exp	44	85	3	66	8	6
2022-03	Exp	46	90	3	68	10	6
2022-02	Rec	46	87	3	68	10	6
2021-12	Rec	46	80	3	64	22	9
2021-11	Exp	45	78	3	64	18	9
2021-09	Exp	43	67	3	61	20	9
2021-06	Rec	43	66	3	61	20	9
2021-04	Rec	38	55	3	61	1	9
2021-01	Rec	41	29	3	60	47	9
2020-10	Rec	48	58	3	57	65	9
2020-07	Rec	48	38	3	54	87	9
2020-05	Exp	52	53	3	56	93	9
2020-03	Exp	54	83	3	59	69	9
2020-02	Rec	50	86	3	59	45	9
2019-12	Rec	42	60	3	55	24	8
2019-10	Exp	37	48	3	55	10	8
2019-08	Exp	44	70	3	54	30	8
2019-05	Exp	51	92	3	56	49	8
2019-02	Exp	44	45	3	53	56	8
2019-01	Exp	42	32	3	53	59	8

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q3

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022