Rankings/Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC

Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC

NeutralTier 1CBSA 34820Compare

Risk Rank: #176 of 287Month: 2025-12Score change (12m):↑ +10

46score

Composite risk percentile vs 287 metros (higher = higher risk)

Executive Summary

Myrtle Beach's housing market shows average risk, ranking 176th of 287 metros. The market recently entered Expansion. Current conditions are balanced with stable liquidity. Broad-based growth with healthy fundamentals.

Myrtle Beach experienced a market correction from early 2024 through mid-2024. The market has since normalized and entered Expansion.

Inventory is growing at a moderate +5% pace with homes taking +6% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Rent growth is roughly keeping pace with price appreciation, suggesting valuations are not stretched.

Cycle Phase

RecoveryExpansionHypersupplyRecession

1 month in current phase·from Recovery

Normal growth conditions with balanced fundamentals

Key Dynamics

Risk is primarily driven by permits per capita and affordability, while employment provides the most support.

Top Drivers

Permits per Capitap100

Permits per 1,000 residents

Affordabilityp83

Mortgage payment / income

Permit Growthp45

YoY permit change

Market Signals

Inventory is growing at a moderate +5% pace with homes taking +6% longer to sell — within normal ranges.

Liquidity

Stable—

Active Listings YoY

+5.5%p54

Days on Market YoY

+6.0%p60

Months in status5

Data through Dec 2025

Valuation

Balanced↓

Rent vs. Price Growth

-2.6%p27

Months in status1

Data through Dec 2025Rent growth vs price growth (rent support). Note: Affordability and Valuation measure different structural dimensions and can diverge.

Factor Details

Lower riskHigher risk

Low RiskBelow AvgNeutralElevatedHigh Risk

Price MomentumNeutral

+2.6%p43

12-month HPI change — higher = overheating

Permit GrowthNeutral

-3.5%p45

YoY permit change — higher = supply pressure

Permits per CapitaHigh Risk

18.01p100

Permits per 1,000 residents — higher = overbuilding risk

AffordabilityHigh Risk

0.33p83

Mortgage payment / income — higher = more burdened

EmploymentLow Risk

+3.1%p1

12-month employment change (risk inverted)

MigrationLow Risk

+$693Kp5

Net AGI migration (risk inverted)

National Context

Credit Conditions

Credit Regime

Stable—

Normal expansion. Credit is available, transactions are healthy — no constraints on current growth momentum.

Bank Lending Standards

-5.7Normal

Rate Change (YoY)

-76 bpsNormal

Mortgage Risk Premium

+191 bpsElevated

Stable for 8 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Supply Pipeline

Supply Regime

Accumulating—

Supply pipeline is building up while credit remains available. New units are accumulating in the system — watch for delivery pressure in coming quarters.

Pipeline Ratio

0.92High

Completion-Permit Divergence

+1.9 ppNormal

Accumulating for 4 quartersData through 2026-Q1

Local Signals

Metro Permit Activity

Permit Activity

Normal

YoY Permit Growth

-3.5%Within norm

Raw signal — not the composite percentile

Relative to 2016–2019 norms for this metro

Supply and demand are in equilibrium. No unusual activity on either side of the market.

Employment Concentration

Employment

Moderate

Largest SectorAccommodation & Food 21.5%

QCEW 2024 annual averages

Internal Structure

County-level structural analysis.

County-level structural analysis is not available for this metro due to fewer than 3 qualifying counties.

Score History

Month	Phase	Score	Price	Permits	Afford	Employ	Migr
2025-11	Rec	44	73	3	85	0	6
2025-09	Rec	45	79	3	85	0	6
2025-07	Hyp	44	68	3	85	0	6
2025-05	Rec	43	67	3	82	0	6
2025-04	Hyp	43	65	3	82	1	6
2025-02	Hyp	43	61	3	84	7	6
2024-11	Hyp	39	4	3	81	41	6
2024-08	Hyp	45	15	3	82	65	6
2024-05	Ress	38	31	3	81	6	6
2024-03	Ress	49	66	3	83	35	6
2024-01	Hyp	53	75	3	83	53	6
2023-11	Rec	48	90	3	79	10	6
2023-09	Hyp	41	56	3	73	10	6
2023-07	Hyp	42	49	3	73	19	6
2023-04	Hyp	48	90	3	72	19	6
2023-03	Ress	43	82	3	69	0	6
2023-01	Ress	42	74	3	69	2	6
2022-10	Ress	46	93	3	75	3	6
2022-09	Hyp	48	97	3	77	5	6
2022-08	Ress	48	97	3	77	4	6
2022-06	Ress	44	85	3	66	6	6
2022-05	Exp	44	85	3	66	8	6
2022-03	Exp	46	90	3	68	10	6
2022-02	Rec	46	87	3	68	10	6
2021-12	Rec	46	80	3	64	22	9
2021-11	Exp	45	78	3	64	18	9
2021-09	Exp	43	67	3	61	20	9
2021-06	Rec	43	66	3	61	20	9
2021-04	Rec	38	55	3	61	1	9
2021-01	Rec	41	29	3	60	47	9
2020-10	Rec	48	58	3	57	65	9
2020-07	Rec	48	38	3	54	87	9
2020-05	Exp	52	53	3	56	93	9
2020-03	Exp	54	83	3	59	69	9
2020-02	Rec	50	86	3	59	45	9
2019-12	Rec	42	60	3	55	24	8
2019-10	Exp	37	48	3	55	10	8
2019-08	Exp	44	70	3	54	30	8
2019-05	Exp	51	92	3	56	49	8
2019-02	Exp	44	45	3	53	56	8
2019-01	Exp	42	32	3	53	59	8

Data Vintages

Price (HPI)2025-Q4

Permits2025-12

Income2024

Employment2025-12

Migration2022